"Frank Boettcher" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 10 Sep 2008 22:41:51 -0700 (PDT), "


Uh, I think before you draw the conclusions you have drawn above, you
may want to look at the global demand charts. As is intended in the
free market, supply and demand , continue to be the major driver in
the price of crude. For the first half of this year U. S. demand was
lower, but the impact was not felt because non western economies were
offsetting the drop causing a world wide demand increase. All of a
sudden the demand prediction for those economies dropped off the chart
and the price has responded. Of course the down side is global
recession.

I looked at the charts earlier this year. World consumption is down
compared to 3 or 4 years ago. 3rd world countires are using more but over
all the world demand is lower.





I'm not saying speculation is not a factor, just saying speculation
can only exist within the supply/demand trends as it is the key
driver. All those mutually exclusive potential events you mention
above get assigned a probability factor and in the face of
significantly falling demand, they become meaningless.

Demand has been down for over a year, supply this summer has been
interrrupted by hurricanes. Many refineries still do not expect to be back
up and running to capacity for several more weeks because of Gustov and
price of oil and gas continues to drop.



And you fail to mention the strengthening dollar, a major factor in
the price of any commodity that is used globally but priced in
dollars.

While the dollar is strengtening, oil prices began dropping befor the dollar
went up. Oil prices going down will strengthen the dollar.


With regard to the part I snipped, it is my view, that any transfer of
money, privelege or power put in the hands of any government agency is
guaranteed to drive corruption on both sides of the transfer.
Guaranteed.

Agreed.