On Mon, 18 Aug 2008 03:13:20 -0500, the renowned flipper
wrote:

On Sat, 16 Aug 2008 20:30:51 -0400, Spehro Pefhany
wrote:

snip

and then the
missile 'defense' will be left to 'mop up' the few remaining vestiges
of Russian deterrence.

It's patently absurd scenarios like that which leads to 'war'.

Ever hear of early warning radar? How about "on alert' status? Got any
idea where Russia's nukes are? Like fixed silo, mobile land based (for
which we have no equivalent), cruise missile, submarine based,
airborne, and tactical... just to get started.

Yes, that's where I thought you were coming from. Suggest you read the
scholarly article on "Nuclear Primacy" in the influential journal
_Foreign Affairs_, I think this particular article is open to the
public:

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/200603...r-primacy.html

All your points, and more, are covered in well-researched detail.
Although all of the authors' claims are not universally accepted, it's
most certainly not an absurd position, and the *actions* of NATO and
the US are consistent with this being their *goal*, in contrast to the
grand-sounding words which mean little.

The hardening of the proposed Polish military base with Patriot
missiles operated by 100+ US military troops (wearing Polish uniforms
as a rather small fig leaf) is a strong indication that Poland and the
US think that Russia might feel a overwhelming urge to Osirak the
thing for some strange reason.

And then there's the little 'problem' that an 'interceptor' defense is
of little 'security' if it does not actually 'defend' the country
supposedly launching your, so called, 'first strike' and, while this
may come as a surprise, Poland if not mainland US territory so the
folks in Boise aren't going to be very comforted that Poland 'is
safe'.

I'm quite certain they'd rather have the lethal particulate matter
from blown-up Pu pits wafting down over Warsaw rather than Boise, if
it has to be one or the other.

I don't think the Russians will stand for a
situation where their security permanently depends on the sanity and
morals of Washington.

Nothing is ever 'permanent' but so much for the theory of finally
being 'friends' again.

According to your notion of 'friendly', all of Europe should be
frantically building thousands of nukes and missiles. After all, we
actually did 'invade' them.

Yes. They already have hundreds- delivery systems aside, enough to act
as a deterrent to Russia, China or even the US, although the latter is
a very unlikely scenario, at least in the near term. Though,
considering the unexpected breakup of the Soviet Union, perhaps not
unthinkable, should something unexpected happen to the US-- triggered
by economic collapse or a major terror incident (eg. taking out a
city).


Best regards,
Spehro Pefhany
--
"it's the network..." "The Journey is the reward"
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