Robert Baer wrote:

Eeyore wrote:
Spehro Pefhany wrote:
the renowned flipper wrote:
Eeyore wrote:
ian field wrote:

I'm sitting on the roof with binoculars watching out for bright flashes!

I do hope they realise they are 'outgunned' by a very large number.

'Outgunned' by *who*?

The British fleet alone could reduce Russia to rubble.

And they could reduce Britain to rubble with just their nuclear spare
parts store.

Much as I admire the British Navy, before you start bragging about
'the fleet alone' you should take note that not one of those 200 nukes
get's airborne without the shared store of U.S. made Trident missiles
they're sitting atop.


To Putin's ridiculous assertion that 10 interceptors in Poland
constitutes some kind of 'threat', as of Jan 2007 Russia had the
world's largest stockpile of nuclear weapons with an estimated total
of 16,000 warheads, of which 7,200 are believed to be operational.

Not that many have operational delivery systems. Do some reading.


If we presume a 100% kill ratio, lower that 'estimate' to 7,190
remaining, assuming you believe the 'estimate' accurate to within 10.

That's not the scenario. Either you know next to nothing about it or
you're deliberately advancing a straw man argument.


Who's 'outgunned'?

Russia, of course. Where do you get your information? It's a very
dangerous situation.

The scenario that causes instability is that of a US first strike (as
the overwhelming US conventional first strike on Iraq) and then the
missile 'defense' will be left to 'mop up' the few remaining vestiges
of Russian deterrence. I don't think the Russians will stand for a
situation where their security permanently depends on the sanity and
morals of Washington. They've been attacked and invaded too many
times, and have had 'allies' turn on them too many times to trust
anyone, let alone the US.


And what would the Chinese do ? They aren't exactly friendly with Russia.

So it's Russian nukes vs potentially

US
UK
French
Israeli
and Chinese nukes.

Russia would be be a wasteland for decades and probably eventually absorbed into
Ukraine.

All of the other nations would have large pools of glowing dirt...

Apparently true story.

During the latter part of the Cold War the Russian defences 'detected' a US nuclear
attack. It was so improbable that the relevant Russian commander refused to press the
'red button'.

In the end it was traced IIRC to some atmospheric disturbance. Would the *conscript*
Russian Army (who hate being there) actually fire on Poland ?

Graham