On Sun, 15 Jun 2008 17:00:40 +0100 someone who may be "Bill Wright"
wrote this:-

So where did it all magically appear from?

It's because the price is going up, so they're prospecting more widely.

Peak Oil is a much misunderstood fact. There is a good introduction
at http://www.depletion-scotland.org.uk.

One of the links from there is to
http://philhart.com/peak_oil/introduction where I particularly
liked the following:

"Listening to the 'market experts' on your evening news, you could
be forgiven for thinking that oil production is governed purely by
economic theories. It is going to be a painful lesson, but even the
economists will soon learn that the production of oil is in fact
governed by very sound geological principles and the laws of
physics.

"The oil we have built our societies on was actually created one
hundred million years ago. More of it is not now going to suddenly
appear 10,000 feet underground just because economists say the price
is too high. [snip]"

"Some Frequently Asked Questions about 'Peak Oil'

"Our 'market experts' routinely peddle a few simple myths to deny
the imminent reality of peak oil. Technology and 'unconventional
oil' are a reality in the industry today and will become more
important. But they will not be able to make-up for the decline in
production of the 'easy oil' which we have squandered.

""The economists all think that if you show up at the cashier's cage
with enough currency, God will put more oil in ground." [Kenneth S.
Deffeyes, Princeton University Geologist]

"Technology

""Most of the world's oil was found long ago with technology no more
advanced than the hammer and hand lens. Some 60% lies in about 300
easily found giant fields. But over the last 20 years, we have seen
amazing technological advances in the exploration arena." [Jack
Zagar]

"Geochemistry to identify the oil potential around the world.
Seismic technology to define the size and shape of reservoirs.
Drilling technology for longer, deeper, more accurate and
multi-lateral wells. The industry has and continues to use advanced
technology, but the trend is inescapable. We can only find smaller
fields that are more difficult to produce. New technology often
helps to increase production rates and drain oil fields faster, but
rarely does it significantly increase the ultimate amount of oil
that can be recovered.

"Crying Wolf

"The final argument from the optimists is that people have always
been predicting the end of oil and they have always been wrong.

"In the 1980's, resource companies often only had stated reserves
equivalent to ten years or so of production. Ignoring new
discoveries, which at that time still matched production, some
people reached the simple but incorrect conclusion that oil would
run out in that time frame. Now, though, we are discovering a lot
less than we use each and every year. Technically competent analysis
does not describe oil 'running out', but shows that production must
soon peak and begin an inevitable decline.

"In 1956, geophysicist M. King Hubbert working for Shell predicted
oil production in the continental United States would peak in the
early 1970s. He was proven right, but even in 1970 the industry
scorned his prediction. They gloated that production levels
continued to set records, only to see the predicted decline commence
in the following years.

"Following the same methodology, Hubbert predicted a world 'peak' in
oil production for around the year 2000. This will be only a few
years early, not because we have discovered more oil than he
predicted, but through the oil shocks of the 1980's we used a little
less in the meantime, slightly delaying the peak. Made half a
century ago, Hubbert's prediction is still sound because he
understood the principles of geology which underly discovery and
production of oil.

"In "The End of Cheap Oil" [Scientific American, March 1998], with
more than 40 years of oil industry experience, Colin J Campbell and
Jean H Laherre predicted that world oil production would peak in
this first decade of the 21st century. As in the United States in
1970, the economists scorn these predictions, but science is not on
their side."



--
David Hansen, Edinburgh
I will *always* explain revoked encryption keys, unless RIP prevents me
http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2000/00023--e.htm#54