dpb wrote:
....

I wasn't talking about general reserves; I was speaking of areas in
production and specifically of areas in production around here (Hugoton
gas field).

And, reserves (proven or no) aren't production. Not having really
looked at US numbers recently other than what I know of local
conditions, I followed up.

According to EIA data, the numbers for the year 2005-07 and projections
for '08 and '09 are

Supply (mmb/d) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Domestic Production 5.18 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.31
Alaska 0.86 0.74 0.72 0.68 0.65
Federal Gulf of Mexico 1.28 1.3 1.34 1.35 1.62
Lower 48 States (excl. GOM) 3.03 3.06 3.05 3.08 3.04
Total Crude Oil to Refineries 15.22 15.24 15.15 14.98 14.91

Consumption (mmb/d)
Motor Gasoline 9.16 9.25 9.29 9.22 9.25
Total Consumption 20.8 20.69 20.7 20.41 20.55

This clearly illustrates US production isn't going up very rapidly at
all; Alaska has dropped 16% in '07 from '05 and is expected to continue.
Meanwhile, GOM is making up some but is expected to only barely exceed
the reduction from AK and the lower 48 by '09. Those estimates are
predicated on the assumption that the Thunder Horse and Tahiti platforms
actually do make it online in '08 and '09, respectively.

Meanwhile, gasoline consumption is essentially flat as is total
consumption so while we may not be losing much ground overall, we're
certainly not gaining very rapidly.

Natural gas is a little more promising on the national level owing to,
as noted before, there being a significant number of wells already
drilled that were previously capped as having insufficient oil
production to have made them pay at the time but w/ both oil and gas
prices now high are being opened and can be done quite quickly.

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