On 22 May 2008 08:00:48 -0700, Banty wrote:

In article , Paul M. Eldridge
says...

On 21 May 2008 20:09:14 -0700, Banty wrote:

In article , Paul M. Eldridge
says...

On 21 May 2008 14:54:46 -0700, Banty wrote:

[... snip ...]

Thanks, Paul.

Well, I have pretty much decided already to sit on my oil fired Burnham and
tankless coil system for awhile (windows have been replaced and some insulation
work has been done, too!).

But the question that bugs me is - if the boiler gives out and I have to make a
decision regarding a primary heat source tomorrow (no, let's say, January 18
2009 ;-), what would be the best way to go.

Banty

Hi Banty,

I don't think anyone can accurately predict what will happen in the
energy marketplace, one, five or ten years from now but I can tell you
that I'm in meetings this week with a senior representative from a
major New England utility and he's painting a rather bleak picture and
from what he's been telling us, his fears appear to be well founded.
I don't say this lightly, but if you haven't already taken steps to
make your home more energy efficient and to reduce your personal
energy needs to the greatest extent possible, I strongly advise you to
do so now.

Well, OK, of course. Which makes me glad (if I weren't glad enough already)
that I've tightened up the house with new Marvin windows and added insulation
where it was found to be lacking.

But what I'm trying to get at is - should I be ready to make a conversion from
oil should my boiler go, or is propane (I'd have to have a propane tank) and
electric going to follow oil anyway?

Banty


Hi Banty,

FWIW, the previous owners of my home used some 5,700 litres (1,505
gallons) of heating oil a year for space heating and domestic hot
water purposes and with various thermal upgrades plus the addition of
a ductless heat pump, I was able to get that down to 700 litres last
year. Now, with a small electric water heater pre-feeding my boiler's
indirect tank, that number should drop to perhaps something in the
range of 250 litres (66 gallons). When you get your consumption down
to this level the price of fuel oil could double or triple overnight
and your out-of-pocket expenses are still minimal. Had I done nothing
at all, today, I'd be paying over $7,000.00 a year to heat my home; as
it stands now, I pay less than $700.00 and our winters are
significantly colder than those of Buffalo, NY.

If money were no object and you wanted to stick with a central heating
system, then a ground source heat pump would likely be your best bet.
However, at the end of the day, one or two ultra high-efficiency
Fujitsu 12RLQ ductless heat pumps could reduce your home heating costs
by almost as much but, in this case, your upfront costs would be
substantially lower and the money you save could be used to pay for
additional upgrades to your home's thermal envelope. To me, this is a
more sensible way to go.

BTW, crude oil is currently trading at $134.75 a barrel and the Nymex
heating oil futures price is $3.96 a gallon. Retail is normally
another $0.60 to $0.75 above that so, as of now, residential fuel oil
would be priced at $4.60 to $4.70 a gallon. You should expect to pay
**at least** $5.00 by this fall and perhaps $6.00 if things continue
at their current pace. So for a homeowner who uses an average of
1,000 gallons a year, budget $5,000.00 to $6,000.00 just to be safe
(the cost to fill a 275 gallon tank that's roughly 1/4 full could be
$1,000.00+).

I'm trying hard not to be alarmist, but when I say I'm being told the
situation in New England this coming winter will be bleak I mean this
in the truest sense of the word.

Thanks, Paul.

I'll look into the heat pump - I take it it greatly raises the efficiency of
circulation. For my primary, should it go, maybe I should go for the downsized
indirect tank system but stick with oil as other fuel options aren't great
either. And emphasize conservation. As in the end the only real way to address
this.

One thought I had when backing out of the System 2000 (other than getting a
stong feeling I should rethink everything, and that I had time to do so) was
that the $$$ could better be put into a few more things, like replacing certain
doors.

My house isn't particularly well situated for solar (north side of a hill, with
the major roof surfaces facing east and west), but maybe there's something I
could do there too.

Banty


Hi Banty,

Crude oil hit $135.09 yesterday and is trading this morning slightly
lower ($132.27). However, heating oil futures are now $3.991 a gallon
so, again, based on normal margins, we should expect to pay between
$4.60 to $4.75 a gallon retail. Due to a growing world-wide demand
for distillates, that will most likely pass the $5.00 mark within the
next few weeks. [Looking at this week's numbers, U.S. distillate
inventories, which includes both heating oil and diesel came in
800,000 barrels below analyst expectations.]

So, again, homeowners who heat with oil will be in for a shock when
their tanks are topped up this fall. Best get consumption down now or
you will pay dearly in the months ahead.

Cheers,
Paul