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cavelamb himself[_4_] cavelamb himself[_4_] is offline
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Default Recession is a given. Can we avoid a total collapse?


NEW YORK (CNN) -- Let's say a giant asteroid was headed toward Earth
right now and experts say it has a good chance of ending civilization as
we know it. Let's also say that we've known about this asteroid for
years but even as it gets closer and closer our leaders do nothing.

"Don't worry," they tell us, "The next administration will figure
something out."

With the future of our country at stake, would Americans really sit back
and tolerate that kind of inaction? Of course not -- we'd be sharpening
our pitchforks and demanding answers.

Well there may not be a space asteroid heading toward us, but there is
an economic one -- and the threat to our future is just as severe.

You might think that I'm talking about the recession (sorry: potential
recession) or credit crisis, but I'm thinking bigger. Much, much bigger.

Let me give you three numbers that will put this economic asteroid into
perspective: $200 billion, $14.1 trillion, and $53 trillion.

# $200 billion is the approximate total amount of write-downs announced
so far as a result of the current credit crisis.

# $14.1 trillion is the size of the entire U.S. economy

# And $53 trillion is (drum roll please) the approximate size of this
country's bill for the Social Security and Medicare promises we've made.

While no one will ever mistake me for Alan Greenspan, it seems to me
that the third number is quite a bit larger than the other two. It also
seems very few people care.

According to the latest Social Security and Medicare Trustees report
(and I use that term loosely since it has the word "trust" in it)
released earlier this week, the economic asteroid will first make impact
in the year 2019 when the Medicaid trust fund becomes insolvent.

Only an immediate 122 percent increase in Medicare taxes and a 26
percent increase in Social Security taxes can prevent (or more likely,
delay) its impact.


http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/03/26/bec...cit/index.html