On Mar 22, 9:52*pm, "Ed Huntress" wrote:
wrote in message

...
On Mar 22, 7:22 pm, "Ed Huntress"

Well, why don't you tell us who got it right, Dan? What crank do you
listen
to who would have told you that there was going to be a subprime mortgage
crises, provoked by a mortgage industry that was giving out ridiculous
loans, with prices dropping and buyers pulling out because of credit was
tied up by a collapse of derivatives that were collateralized by bundles
of
those subprime mortgages, rated AAA by S&P and Moody's, which every major
investment bank (except Goldman Sachs) was buying like candy and which
was
supported by the most sophisticated and most successful financial network
in

. the history of mankind?







NASA has used the same type of logic. The fact that ice falling off
the fuel tanks has not significantly damaged the heat shields ten
times in a row , does not mean that it is safe to ignore it.
The fact that housing has gone up and not declined for twenty years ,
does not mean that it can't.

Duh...thank you, Mr. Monday Morning Quarterback. We've *never* had a
housing
decline like this in the history of the US.

When every one believes there is a sure fire way to make money, it
ceases to work that way.

I'll make sure to write that in my book of aphorisms.

--
Ed Huntress
You may not believe it, but I did not buy any houses with a plan on
flipping them in a few years. *My wife told me of friends of hers that
were buying houses to resell, and I told her that when housewifes are
doing things like that, it is the wrong time to do it.

Oh, I believe you. I'm cautious that way, too. But you and I are probably
more risk-averse than any serious investor, or any really successful one,
because you can't be excessively risk-averse and make out.

But we aren't talking about house-flippers who are getting in all the
trouble. Most of them are first-time buyers. They're not very sophisticated
and the mortgage lenders offered them a deal they could hardly refuse.

I *think we had a similar drop in house prices in 1929. *Even though
you say it never happened.

*I* didn't say it. Barron's, and Bloomberg, and The Economist are saying it.