Unknown wrote:

On Sun, 23 Dec 2007 07:27:00 -0800, Gunner
wrote:

,;On Sun, 23 Dec 2007 01:48:18 -0600, Don Foreman
wrote:
,;
,;On Sat, 22 Dec 2007 14:51:43 -0600, Don Foreman
wrote:
,;
,;On Sat, 22 Dec 2007 06:51:04 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:
,;
,; Reality is the numbers.
,;
,;No, reality is in specific individual reality, however improbable the
,;numbers may declare it to be. The numbers describe the realities
,;that many others in a wide variety of circumstances have experienced.
,;Consider the statistician that drowned in a river with a mean depth of
,;20 inches and standard deviation of 5 inches...
,;
,;If an event has low probability but would have very high cost, it
,;has significant cost risk even though it is improbable.
,;
,;
,;I'll note as a postscript that I do have some comprehension of
,;statistics and numbers. I took a minor in statistics in grad school.
,;My graduate-level courses were in the statistics dept of the U of MN.
,;My professor was head of the dept and author of texts in theory of
,;statistics. I earned A grades.
,;
,;I won't presume to lecture, but I must say that faulty decisions can
,;be and often are made from numbers that are valid in context gathered
,;and taken but perhaps and even often not so in particular.
,;
,;Try to explain even elementary theory of statistics, probability or
,;cost-risk analysis to a politican or a zeolot. It's like traning a
,;butterfly to march.
,;
,;Barrage of cites and numbers do seem to be persuasive.
,;
,;I wonder what the stats are, on the likelihood of having an auto
,;accident or fire in ones home are.

The likelihood of having an auto accident in ones home are very low.


You wouldn't know that from watching the local news. It seems like
every few days, a vehicle hits a building.


--
Service to my country? Been there, Done that, and I've got my DD214 to
prove it.
Member of DAV #85.

Michael A. Terrell
Central Florida