On Sun, 23 Dec 2007 07:27:00 -0800, Gunner
wrote:

,;On Sun, 23 Dec 2007 01:48:18 -0600, Don Foreman
wrote:
,;
,;On Sat, 22 Dec 2007 14:51:43 -0600, Don Foreman
wrote:
,;
,;On Sat, 22 Dec 2007 06:51:04 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:
,;
,; Reality is the numbers.
,;
,;No, reality is in specific individual reality, however improbable the
,;numbers may declare it to be. The numbers describe the realities
,;that many others in a wide variety of circumstances have experienced.
,;Consider the statistician that drowned in a river with a mean depth of
,;20 inches and standard deviation of 5 inches...
,;
,;If an event has low probability but would have very high cost, it
,;has significant cost risk even though it is improbable.
,;
,;
,;I'll note as a postscript that I do have some comprehension of
,;statistics and numbers. I took a minor in statistics in grad school.
,;My graduate-level courses were in the statistics dept of the U of MN.
,;My professor was head of the dept and author of texts in theory of
,;statistics. I earned A grades.
,;
,;I won't presume to lecture, but I must say that faulty decisions can
,;be and often are made from numbers that are valid in context gathered
,;and taken but perhaps and even often not so in particular.
,;
,;Try to explain even elementary theory of statistics, probability or
,;cost-risk analysis to a politican or a zeolot. It's like traning a
,;butterfly to march.
,;
,;Barrage of cites and numbers do seem to be persuasive.
,;
,;I wonder what the stats are, on the likelihood of having an auto
,;accident or fire in ones home are.

The likelihood of having an auto accident in ones home are very low.