"Don Foreman" wrote in message
...
On Sat, 22 Dec 2007 14:51:43 -0600, Don Foreman
wrote:

On Sat, 22 Dec 2007 06:51:04 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:

Reality is the numbers.

No, reality is in specific individual reality, however improbable the
numbers may declare it to be. The numbers describe the realities
that many others in a wide variety of circumstances have experienced.
Consider the statistician that drowned in a river with a mean depth of
20 inches and standard deviation of 5 inches...

If an event has low probability but would have very high cost, it
has significant cost risk even though it is improbable.


I'll note as a postscript that I do have some comprehension of
statistics and numbers. I took a minor in statistics in grad school.
My graduate-level courses were in the statistics dept of the U of MN.
My professor was head of the dept and author of texts in theory of
statistics. I earned A grades.

I won't presume to lecture, but I must say that faulty decisions can
be and often are made from numbers that are valid in context gathered
and taken but perhaps and even often not so in particular.

Try to explain even elementary theory of statistics, probability or
cost-risk analysis to a politican or a zeolot. It's like traning a
butterfly to march.

Barrage of cites and numbers do seem to be persuasive.

These aren't heavy-duty statistics though, Don. This is all little more than
arithmetic.

--
Ed Huntress