On Dec 22, 10:26*am, HVAC Guy wrote:
wrote:
If you made a product that deliberately lasted 10 years, while it
could last 20, it wouldn't be long before a competitor whose
product did last 20 would start eating your market share because
their product was superior. * That's how free markets work.

The problem is that nothing purchased by *anybody* will be kept for 20
years. *That time-frame is too long.

It doesn't matter if it's a car, or roofing shingles, or furnaces, or
cell phones or TV's.

Once you get beyond 5 years, it's irrelevant if you could design it to
last 10 years or 20 years. *It won't matter.

Most home owners putting a new furnace in a house today will not be
the same people living in the same house 10 years from now when the
furnace breaks down.

All of that I agree with. Which is exactly what I've been saying.
Manufacturers are simply reacting to what the market needs are.



The HVAC industry is, and has been, working toward a goal of making
sure that just as each owner of a given house will probably have to
replace the roof once during the ownership of the house, he will also
have to replace the furnace too.

Now that I'd like to see proof of.




That is a different situation compared to 20 or 30 years ago, when the
original furnace installed in a new house back in 1965 - 1980 would
easily last 30+ years and the house would pass through the hands of 3
or 4 owners without needing a new furnace.

The typical funace lasts 20 years.

My parent's house was built in 1955 and they replaced it's original
forced-air natural gas furnace about 5 years ago. *That's 45 years
with the same furnace.

My house was built in 1976 and has it's original natural gas furnace.
That's 32 years and counting.

The typical funace lasts 20 years.

So the HVAC industry is on target at reducing furnace lifespan down to
the time frame of the average length of home-ownership - about 7
years. *Good for them.


I'd like to see proof that the goal is to get lifespan down to 7
years.




Given the cost, that seems a reasonable lifespan. *

It's a waste of energy and resources for an industry to design such a
product with an intentionally short lifespan. *It runs counter to the
national interests on such scales as energy usage (to build it in the
first place) and environmental impact when it's taken to the landfill
when it's discarded.

What short lifespan are you referring to? 20 years for a furnace
seems like a reasonable compromise in terms of lifespan. And you
choose to totally ignore the energy usage that a 45 year old furnace
will waste compared to a new one? I'd say that will easily outweigh
the energy wasted by recycling it back to the scrap yard. Look at all
the environmental programs out there to encourage precisely this kind
of action. Utilities and govts are offering rebates for consumers to
encourage them to get a new furnace or AC system that is energy
efficient. That surely leads to more of the old ones going to the
metal scrap yard

And how many customers are going to be willing to pay significantly
more for a furnace that will last 45 years, without knowing how
improvements, energy sources, convenience features, etc will play out
over decades? I'll pay more for something if I think it's going to be
worth it and economically makes sense. And for me, 20-25 years is
the sweet spot for an HVAC system. I'm not going to shell out much,
if anything more for one that is supposed to last 45 years.



You could make the same argument for other items, like wiring,
plumbing, fixtures, the bricks and 2x4 studs in the walls. *Why do
they need to last 50+ years? *Why not design the entire house and
every structural and functional element inside it so that it only
lasts 10 to 15 years? *After all, I'm not going to live in the house
for more than 10 years - right?

Now this is just plain silly. Historically, there haven't been a lot
of improvements or changes in 2X4's, bricks, or the basic plumbing
system. There has been in HVAC though. Nor can they be replaced
with even remotely the ease of an HVAC system. As for things like
fixtures, I'd submit that few people today expect any of them to last
for 50+ years. People are used to dishwashers, ovens, etc lasting 15
years or so. Even faucets and sinks get changed long before 50
years. I wouldn't want the same style sink or faucet I had 50 years
ago. I just replaced my own kitchen sink which was 20 years old for
convenience and changing needs.


And then watch the landfills get filled up when all those houses get
torn down and rebuilt every 15 or 20 years. *That makes real good
sense - doesn't it?

Not an issue because it isn't happening and isn't going to.



How many customers would be willing to pay say 30% more for
one that lasted another 5 years? *Or 50% more for one
that lasted another 10? *

That's the crock - that thinking that it costs so much more to make it
last another 5 or 10 years.

You don't want it to last 5 more years. You keep referring to 45 or
50 years. And without knowing what it costs to manufacture specific
items, there is no way for you to know how much more anything costs to
build, it's pure speculation.



It's the electronic items that fail and become absurdly (criminally)
expensive to fix that forces the removal of a furnace - not because
it's suffered an irreparable structural or mechanical failure. *And as
home owners become dumber and dumber about how things work or how to
fix things for themselves, they will be at the mercy of contractors
and repair men.

Welcome to the modern world. Try going down to the dealer and seeing
how much a new computer or similar module costs for your car. Or some
parts for a refrigerator or stove.



Given that the energy situation and technology is
constantly evolving,

There's very little new in furnace design that wasn't known 50 years
ago. *

So, they had 95% efficient furnaces 50 years ago? I must have missed
that. Plus in many cases, people are using AC systems today as
opposed to 1957, aren't they? I suppose any old AC system that is
part of the whole picture and that is of similar age is peachy keen
too?


There is no constant evolution (at least not in North America).
In Japan, they have furnaces with built-in 1 kw electric generators to
provide some electrical co-generation that can supplement the
electricity supply for the house - and keep the blower running in the
case of complete power outages (like what's happening to thousands in
the central USA right now).