Thank you for all the info I will need! I think I will
go ahead. In your opinion, is it safe to say that the
potential advantage/disadvantage of choosing one
alternative over the other is probably slight? That's
the way I read it.
Thanks again for taking the time to help me in
my decision.
Frank





On 1 Nov 2007 23:37:16 GMT, Clark wrote:

frank1492 wrote in
:

This applies to the "Gas Supply Charge" portion of the bill. The
current price per therm is $.9799 and the contract price is $.9999.
The relevant time period for the contract is Nov. 1 through Ap. 30.
Two questions:
(1) Historically, does anyone know what the maximum fluctuation
has been during a winter season in the Northeast? (I am in
Massachusetts.) Please point me to data if this is kept.
(2) A very mild winter would likely drive the price down, but I
have heard widely varying reports regarding expected temps in the
NE. Anybody have thoughts on this?
Of course there are other things that could drive the price up.
When oil prices rise, gas seems to keep step for reasons whose
validity I have doubted in the past.
I have until Nov. 9 to make my decision. Should I do this?
Your thoughts are very much appreciated.
Thanks.
Frank

The government's version of gas pricing:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natur...tural_gas.html

And futures contract prices are he

http://futuresource.quote.com/quotes/quotes.jsp?s=NG

Looking at the futures, your current price and the offered contract it
appears you'll come out slightly ahead since an increase of about $0.4 in
Feb then a decrease of about $0.70 (from the Feb price) in April.

About the only way you'd get really burned would be if the market collapsed
and that's not likely over the winter. The utility may be hedging and is
certainly buying from storage so you won't have major exposure with the
contract.