On Wed, 24 Oct 2007 22:38:24 -0400, with neither quill nor qualm, "Ed
Huntress" quickly quoth:

"Larry Jaques" wrote in message

Yes and no. I thought we were talking about the impact CC laws have on
crime rates. I measure that from the day the impact happens, not just
after the law is passed.

With the media blasting the intended law across all channels (night
and day for months) the perps get the hint and slow down immediately,
even before the law is actually passed. It appeared from another of
your posts that a significant drop in crime came in the year before
the CC law passed. John Lott showed something along that line in his
book _More Guns, Less Crime_. (Pgs 75-81? from the index)

Aha. Now I see what you're saying. Yes, there probably is some effect from
all the publicity, but I would assume that a criminal smart enough to read
the news also is smart enough to know when the law takes effect. I wouldn't
expect it to have an effect *before* the date something actually can happen.

You don't think that having their illegal business spouted all over
the news doesn't make them a bit edgy; that some don't finally come to
the conclusion that crime really doesn't pay?


Evidently, the smarter crooks saw the handwriting on the wall and
decided either to go straight or move. And the opposite happens with
the dumber perps. They think, once the law passes, "Let's go do crimes
now, before they get their guns!", and a spurt happens just after the
law goes into effect.

Interesting thought, and it also would be interesting to see if the crime
numbers actually agree.

My own speculation is that a case like Florida shows a brief reduction in
crime as the law goes into effect and then it regresses to the mean in a
year or two. The fact of the matter is that the number of carrying citizens
on the street remains a small percentage of the population even after these
laws go into effect, and the criminals incorporate the very slight increased
risk into their new sense of equilibrium. After a year or two the natural
rotation of criminals starts driving the rate back up to what it was, or
back onto the original trendline, and the effect of having armed citizens on
the street reduces to zero. That would fit with other evidence that the
existence or non-existence of a shall-issue CCW is completely swamped by
other sociological factors -- something I've seen over and over again as
I've compared states and cities around the country.

Yeah, our society reacts heavily to whatever is on TV and forgets
whatever is not. It's a really damned sad state of affairs.


Maybe I'll try that against the numbers this weekend. Or if it's nice
outside, maybe I won't. The bluefish are still running. d8-)

I haven't fished in years, but the last blue fish I got was a
bluegill, a tiny but very tasty little pan-frier. If you have time,
pop by the library and grab a copy of Lott's book to read while you
wait for a bite.

--
Happiness is not a station you arrive at, but a manner of traveling.
-- Margaret Lee Runbeck