"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
...
"Gunner Asch" wrote in message
news
On Tue, 23 Oct 2007 00:21:21 -0400, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:
"Gunner Asch" wrote in message
. ..
On Mon, 22 Oct 2007 18:19:54 -0700, Larry Jaques
wrote:
On Mon, 22 Oct 2007 20:34:30 -0400, with neither quill nor qualm, "Ed
Huntress" quickly quoth:
"Gunner Asch" wrote in message
A dead perp has a zero recidivism rate.
The trouble is that Dallas has thousands ready to fill their shoes.
You
can
shoot some more, and you will have no measurable effect.
If ten or twelve a day ended up dead, the rest would get the hint
sooner, plus there would be a dozen fewer perps every day. That's
gotta count for something. 
Following the enactment of the Texas concealed carry law in 1995 and
through 1997, the number of homicides had dropped 25% compared to a
national reduction of 16%. Furthermore, the number of assaults and
rapes were cut in half, which again far exceeded the national rate.
Overall, the Texas crime rates have dropped to the lowest point in
over 25 years following the enactment of the Texas concealed carry
law.
Oh, boy, here we go. OK, Gunner, we'll take only one, for everyone's
sake.
Let's take the first sentence.
http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonl...e/RunHomStateb
yState.cfm
The Texas concealed carry law took effect on January 1, 1996. Here are
the
Texas murder rates for some years around that date:
1991 - 2652
1992 - 2239 (down 16% over previous year)
1993 - 2147 (-4%)
1994 - 2022 (-6%)
1995 - 1693 (-16%)
1996 - 1477 (-13%)
1997 - 1327 (-10%)
1998 - 1346 (+1%)
Note that the downward trend started in 1992, from the peak year of
1991.
The big year of decline actually was 1995 -- the year before the CCW law
took effect in Texas -- and that the trend inched up and then stabilized
after 1997 (you can see the longer trend at the BJS data site above). If
somebody here wants to do a regression analysis, it appears from the
year-over-year numbers that it will show *absolutely no effect* on the
murder rate due to the CCW law. The trend was set years before and it
followed a smooth curve right through the early CCW years.
This is the kind of thing about crime statistics that drives me crazy.
No
doubt you got that information above from some highly partisan source
that
didn't put the info into context -- intentionally, perhaps.
None of that "data" can be trusted, except from neutral sources. The
closest
thing we have to a neutral source is the FBI UCR. If you take even five
minutes to check out those statements, you'll probably see that the rest
of
it is just like this: so much baloney.
Keeps you busy doesnt it?
Idle hands do the devils work.....lol
Now that Ive got your attention..care to provide the same cites for
Florida after their CCW expansion?
Gunner
Think of this as something like teaching a man to fish. Now you know where
the data is, and how neatly they lay it out for you. The thing to do with
it
is to plunk it into Excel and let it draw a curve. If there's a kink in
the
curve soon after the CCW law was enacted, something happened. If there's
no
kink, it means that the CCW law had no effect.
--
Ed Huntress
Why would it? The focus is way too limited here. If you look at murders that
is what you are looking at; a connection to CCW permits is a different
subject. One doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the other. Look at
murders. Who does them and why. When you break that down you find it's most
often people one knows or family members. Gang bangers kill lots of other
gang bangers. Husbands and boyfriends kill lots of wives and girlfriends.
When you break down the murder rate it's clear that CCW permits would have
little or no effect on overall murders. CCW permits are great for self
defense against strangers, which is rare, and for scaring off criminals but
as to having a major impact on murders overall, no way.
Hawke