"trijcomm" wrote in message
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On Sep 19, 12:24 am, "Paul M. Cook"
wrote:
"Andrew Venor" wrote in message
...
Paul M. Cook wrote:
"Andrew Venor" wrote in message
...
Paul M. Cook wrote:
"trijcomm" wrote in message
groups.com...
On Sep 18, 11:07 am, "Edward M. Kennedy" wrote:
"T" wrote
http://www.lucasgray.com/video/peacetrain.html
Bout time the Iranian people spoke to the idiots in their
government
then.
The problem in Iran isn't so much the government as it is the
clerical
class.
Ahmadenijad has very little power in Iran, but the Ayatollah's
trump
even him.
A while back there was a British journalist who went into
Tehran
and
it
was a bit disconcerting to me. It was one of those never think
about
it
issues but it's a modern city.
More to the point, the sentiment among the people is changing.
The
Ayatollah's don't hold much power over the youth in the
country. So
we
could see change sooner than later.
Iranians hate the Shah but miss the lifestyle they had under
him.
The people want a situation more like Turkey.
--Tedward- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
And so they went out and elected who they did as their president.
I
think your statements here are more wishful thinking and hoping
than
anything else -- much like the German sympathizers before WWII.
Their president is a powerless figurehead. That's it. He only
exists
to
give the appearance of a parliamentary system of government. The
council of
Mullahs controls the country. And they are very unpopular. Bear
in
mind
the majority of the population was born after 1980. They have had
a
taste
of Western life and they would like a whole lot more. They don't
remember
life under the Shah, a bloody and ruthless dictator that we
installed,
so
they only see the happy side, if you will of the West.
Drop nukes on them, and all 71 million of them will change that
tune
in
an
instant and you will see a backlash the likes of which cannot even
be
imagined. One thing about Iran, they are all Persians and all
Shia
Muslims
(well those who are not Christians anyway). There is no ethnic or
religious
strife to divide them.
Actually Iranian population is only about 1/2 Persian. According
to
the
CIA's World Factbook the ethnic breakdown of Iran is as follows.
Persian: 51%
Azeri 24%
Gilaki and Mazandarani 8%
Kurd 7%
Arab 3%
Lur 2%
Baloch 2%
Turkmen 2%
Other 1%
OK, good info. What is their religious breakdown?
Muslim 98% (Shi'a 89%, Sunni 9%), other (includes Zoroastrian, Jewish,
Christian, and Baha'i) 2%
I'd say with 51 guaranteed in the bag and the other 49% being filled
from
the Shia majority alone (Persians not withstanding), that my money is on
extreme national unity in a time of crisis. They may not all be
Persians,
they may not all be Shia, but I think they see themselves as all
Iranians.
From what I know, they seem to get along pretty well considering the
part of
the world they are in.
In short, they'd be a very hard force to deal with and certainly one
impossible to contain seeing as how we can't even secure a 2 mile road
in
Baghdad.
Paul- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
Seeing that the US has contained something like 15 of the 18 provinces
in Iraq, I beg to differ. And there are some parts of the US where
authorities can't secure a two-mile road. So what's your point?
Where'd you get that number from? The latest count is that the only secure
areas are in the Kurdish north, where the Kurds are taking care of
themselves. The rest is completely out of control.
Did you know what happened top Petraeus's office in Anbar when he was away
delivering his speech? It was blown to smithereens.
Paul