In article ,
F. George McDuffee wrote:

On Thu, 30 Aug 2007 15:50:44 -0500, Rex
wrote:
snip
The United States can certainly conduct an air campaign against Iran,
but we are reminded of the oldest lesson of air power -- one learned by
the Israeli air force against Hezbollah in the summer of 2006: Air power
is enormously successful in concert with a combined arms operation, but
has severe limitations when applied on its own. The idea that nations
will capitulate because of the pain of an air campaign has little
historical basis. It doesn't usually happen. Unlike Hezbollah, however,
Iran is a real state with real infrastructure, economic interests,
military assets and critical port facilities -- all with known locations
that can be pummeled with air power. The United States might not be able
to impose its will on the ground, but it can certainly impose a great
deal of pain. Of course, an all-out air war would cripple Iran in a way
that would send global oil prices through the roof -- since Iran remains
the world's fourth-largest oil exporter.
snip
Iran has already said it will use "the oil weapon" if attacked.

A large percent of the world's oil passes through the Strait of
Hormuz [Ormuz] which is about 30 miles wide at its narrowest
point.

Iran is known to have purchased a number of Silkworm
anti-shipping missiles from the PRC and it would be like shooting
fish in a barrel to kill oil tankers in this strait.

You do not require purpose built ships to lay mines either. I
don't think that a row boat is up to the job, but a fishing boat
should be ample, possibly with the mine hung underneath and thus
not visible from the air. Long range artillery fire is another
option, particurarly if the mines force the tankers into narrow
shipping lanes near the Iran coast.

Actually, during a previous dustup, there were a few big oil tankers
that were hit with Exocet missiles. Nothing happened. The warhead
explosion was smothered by all that crude oil, the consistency of tar.
In at least one case, the crew didn't realize that they had been hit,
and the truth came out only when they notices the small leak caused by
the entrance wound. Not clear that Silkworms will do any better.

Joe Gwinn