Most things will be "throw-away". If it is an expensiive item, there
will be circuit board or module swapping.
With the advent of increased density in using inbeded component
design, and very high density SMD circuit construction, there will be
no possibility of component level service at any practicle means.
I was at a lecture about the future of how electroncs will go. They
are looking at everything to be totaly inbeded and manufactured as
sealed modules. Consumer level devices will be manufactured as a
single self contained module. During warranty, the manufacture will
give a full exchange. After that, the unit is disposed.
As devices become very small and higher in density, the manufacture
cost will drop. This will be passed on to the consumer. In the future,
most electronic devices will be even lower in price.
If you look at computer monitors and TV sets, about 40 years ago the
cheapest TV set was over a month's pay for a working man. Today, you
can buy a TV for much less value and have a much higher performance.
Chances are that it will reliably run for at least 4 to 6 years. At 40
years ago, if a tube type TV ran more than 3 years without service, it
was unusual.
In the near future, Independent TV service centers will probably be
almost non existant. It will be probably impossible to indepently
service the next generations of TV's to come out.
If you look at the labour and parts cost to service most things today,
it is usualy of better value to replace it.
Electronics service people should be taking a hard look at what they
are doing, and make a strong consideration for proper planning.
Jerry G.
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Matt J. McCullar wrote:
Considering how far electronics has come in just the past 50 years, one
wonders what sort of repair questions technicians of the future will face.
Stuff that's as common as beer cans now may be extinct just a few decades
down the road. Repair techniques we now take for granted may not work on
tomorrow's equipment. Think about it; we may have to deal with
bioelectronics, teletransportation equipment, tech support between planets.
Schematics may become so large as to be unprintable on paper, or even stored
on even one mass-storage device.
The vast majority of electronic devices may be impossible to take apart,
much less repair. (And some manufacturers may not even bother to print part
numbers on some components as a result.)
Microscopes will become absolutely necessary, as will lasers for
spot-welding soldering.
Will tomorrow's matter-teleportation devices come with any warranties?
Today's software doesn't.
In the early 1960s, _Mad_ magazine printed a funny article called "Future
Complaints." It illustrated the potential problems that people in the
future would have to deal with. Interestingly, some of these gags have
indeed not only come to pass, but become obsolete: a customer in a
super-fast photoprocessing store was angrily complaining to the helpless
clerk, "What do you mean, 'They're not in yet'? I brought them in over an
hour ago!" But the funniest one was still this: "Geez, can't they do
something to speed up these long lines at the post office?"
So use your imagination: What will technology be like in 50 years, what will
break down, and how will we fix it? What tools will we need? We
technicians may find ourselves having to repair clothing that comes with
data-transmission capability; having to remotely repair I.D. chips beneath
human skin that have stopped working; repairing or reconditioning biomedical
devices after they've been retrieved from people who no longer have need of
them. What else?
Whatever we build, will eventually break. You want your jet pack shutting
off at 1,000 feet? 