David Hearn wrote:
Now - your last point almost makes a supernatural claim: not wearing a
seatbelt will stop you from having an accident in the first place.

Where did you think that I said that?

At the end of your last post! Quoting the end of this/your post:

"BUT, I am reducing the probability of having an accident in the first
place"

"stop you having an accident" (which is what you said) is not the same
as "reducing the probability of having an accident" (which is what he
said).

R.