On Feb 12, 5:52 pm, Paul M. Eldridge
wrote:
Hi Dave,

You're right. Clearly I was a couple neurons short in my thinking.
Let me see if I can move closer to the mark this time or, failing
that, embarrass myself further trying, as the case may be.

Our basic assumption is that these elements will operate 33 per cent
of the time, once the oven reaches its set temperature. But this
cycling will be random in nature, so our 100,000 ovens won't be
cycling "perfectly" in the sense that only one-third will be energized
at any one time. As the total number of ovens increase, I take it
we'll move ever closer to this ideal scenario, but it's probably fair
to say their combined load will fluctuate due to the unevenness in
this cycling. If we were to take a series of snap shots, we might
find that perhaps 50 per cent of these elements are energized, in
which case our load at that particular moment in time is closer to 150
MW and not the 100 MW I had stated.

The point of this exercise was to determine if it might be possible to
"smooth out" or flatten this load, so its net contribution to peak can
be lowered. If we have 100,000 ovens running at a constant 1 KW each
once they reach their set temperature, their combined load should
remain fairly close to 100 MW (slightly more to account for the higher
demand during start-up). Again, my thinking is that energy
consumption should remain constant (or perhaps slightly more due to
control related losses, as you suggest), but peak demand should be
reduced.

Your concerns related to power quality are well taken. There may be
ways to address that but I'm afraid I'm not very knowledgeable in this
area.

Please let me know if I'm a little more successful this time out, or
if I should be hiding my face. :-0

Cheers,
Paul


How exactly is peak demand reduced? Are you using flags to signal
the neighbor not to start dinner, while you're starting yours? Or
are we doing it by ripping out the X Kwatt element and putting in one
that is 30% smaller, so we can wait longer for the oven to heat up?

Do they teach any basic science or probability where you live? Or
are you just stupid?