Brent P wrote:
In article . com, wrote:
Brent P wrote:
Unemployment is near historic lows, GDP is growing at 3.5%, inflation
and interest rates are both low, real estate is at record highs, and
more Americans own homes today than ever before. No reasonable person
and certainly no economist, would call that a collapsing economy.
I didn't call it a collasping economy. I called it an economy of short
term thinking. That is unless you think that 9 trillion in debt and
several times that in future liabilities is something you can shrug off.
Then there is the clever calculations that produce some of those figures
you quote.
So, it's better to rely on personal opinion, than to look at decades of
real economic data that is readily available?
Why don't you pay attention to people from the World Bank, Federal
Reserve, etc and so on if you don't believe me?
It's not clear what
exact "$9 trillion in debt you are referring to." If it's the US govt
debt, an absolute number doesn't mean much by itself.
Well if you want to play games with the currancy.
See, again you show your lack of grasp of any real economic data. The
issue of what debt you are referring to has nothing to do with playing
games with currency. It's the question of what debt you are referring
to. Did you mean US govt debt? US govt debt owned by foreigners?
Consumer debt?
Ask grandpa what
he paid for his first house. Does that mean everyone who pays 10X that
for a house today is doing something wrong? If you look at govt debt
as a percentage of GDP, today it's about the same as it was in the mid
90's and also about the same as it was in the mid 50's. During WWII,
it was twice as high. We survived that, didn't we?
So you want to make the debt smaller by inflating the currancy.
No, I never said that. Any economist will tell you that in free
markets, some small level of price inflation is desirable. And that
means unless you compare debt in the 50's to the size of the economy
then, or some other data that factors in inflation, it's meaningless.
That
appears to be what is being done.
No, because last time I checked, inflation was in control and around
3%, which is a far cry from when it was triple that in the 70's. Or
the double digit levels of many of the countries around the world that
practice your ideas and try to have the govt pursue a trade policy of
blocking imports.
Sure, the only problem is that it wipes
out the savings, the hard earned money of the people. If you don't think
that has consquences you're deluding yourself. Or maybe you just don't
care because you have no savings?
Again, check the facts before you jump to wild end of the world
predictions. Inflation is at 3%, well within the range that is
recognized as ideal. The period when savings were being eaten away by
inflation was the 70's and that's long gone. Just look in the
newspaper and you will find all the banks offering savings alternatives
of 5+%. With inflation at 3%, that 's a positive return, last time I
checked. But, then I check, instead of making stuff up.
As for low cost products doing low income people no good, that is
absolutely false.
In the long term it doesn't. For the short term, get the crap now sure.
But in the long term no. Unless they are always supposed to be poor.
Of course it benefits them in the long term, by low income people being
able to conitnue to buy good cheaply. That continues on.
But work as slaves... like in china.
Free markets benefit all. Those Chinese are happy to work and get the
wages they get. Over time, they improve themselves, save, get better
jobs and move up the economic ladder. It's exactly what's happening
in China if you look at the real facts. Look at Shanhei. It's a
booming city. Or look how the boogey men of past have improved their
countries, ie Japan, China. Compare that to countries that have
tried to manage trade the most, and they have failed miserably.
What happens to those chinese goods
once your plan to inflate the currancy to solve the US debt problem is
put into action?
Never said that was my plan. All I said is you have to put any
economic number in perspective. To rail about some debt number
without comparing it to anything else, like the SIZE OF THE ECONOMY,
renders it just about meaningless. As an example of that, I gave you
the case of grandpa's house, but that went right over your head.
Oh, that's right, they are suddenly incredlibly expensive!
But if you don't want to listen to me about the danger of economic
collaspe, maybe you'll listen to this guy:
http://www.columbia.edu/cu/news/01/1...obel_2001.html
I mean he's only been chief economist for the world bank and has a nobel
prize in the field.... and he's not agreeing with you...
I don;t see anywhere that he said free trade is bad, or that we need to
do something radical to compete with China. Plus, this is a classic
and shows where he's coming from:
"Stiglitz commented on the tax cut advocated by the Bush Administration
and passed by Congress earlier this year, saying that it was not
intended to boost the economy, but, rather, to limit the federal
government's discretionary spending. He added this is why the tax cut,
which included rebates distributed in recent weeks, has failed to
stimulate the economy."
He said that on 10/10/01. First, the Bush tax cuts hadn;'t even taken
effect yet. Bush only took office 10 months prior. Surely this guy
can't be serious that tax cuts that haven't even gone into effect yet
are not working. Today the economy is growing at 3.5%, better than the
average of the 80's and 90's, and unemployment is at historic lows. And
federal revenue as a percent of GDP is 18.4%, which is slightly above
where it's been for the last 40 years. The federal deficit is coming
down faster than anyone expected.
So, your economist has egg all over his face.
Look at who shops at Kmart, Walmart, etc. Those
products would cost much more if it were not for foreign low cost labor
producing them.
Funny how I can find even in those stores, in corners and places made in
USA goods that cost no more and even less much of the time.
And do you think you'd find them at those prices if you eliminated
foreign competition?
Strawman.
Economic fact. Take an economics course or read a magazine.
These low cost products are of tremendous benefit to
everyone, including the low income. As someone earlier pointed out,
China is planning a $7000 entry level car. Do you think that is of no
benefit to low income families here in the USA? You're so biased only
looking for negatives that you can't see the forest for the trees.
I don't think you understand the long term game.
I don't think you understand economics, the great benefit of free
trade, and the huge problems that get caused when you try to have govt
correct perceived imperfections in free markets. Free markets aren't
perfect. Sometimes they are even brutal. But they are far better to
solutions of protectionism, that result in govt management of the
economy and trade wars.
There is no such thing as free trade. It doesn't exist. Maybe we'd have
free trade if the US had no labor laws, no environmental protections, and
completed it's move towards a police state. Then, maybe we'd be on an
even footing with china and then it would be 'free trade'. Do you really
want to live where you can see the air? Where it is so thick and brown
that it's as if you could cut it with a knife?
Free trade is where we don't listen to guys like you and try to lock
out foreign competition on the faulty notion that everyone is going to
be better off.
Or do you feel it's perfectally ok that people live in such sesspools
working more or less as company slaves under an oppressive police state
that controls access to information and forbids things like freedom
speech to make you cheap goods?
I'm the one for FREEDOM, including trade. Your the one that find
something wrong with folks in China providing some products which we
get an good prices and that help them improve their lives by working up
the economic ladder.
China is playing a long term game while the US is playing a short term one.
According to you, because you focus only on the negatives. There are
many US companies that lead the world today today in many areas. Would
you rather have MSFT, INTC, Boeing, etc, or a country with unskilled
laborers making shirts?
You don't seem to grasp the whole picture. Guess who's going to be
building Airbus aircraft? Guess... you think any job is safe? You're
deluding yourself. It's not just no-skill low-skill or 'dirty-jobs' that
are going to china. In fact, with the manufactruring now much of the
engineering is going too...
Oh no! Airbus! My God, more boogey men! Airbus seems to have
their tits in the wringer at the moment with the A380, don't they?
Sure they are competition, but that's good for everyone. If Boeing
had no competition, we's still be flying around in planes that cost
more, used more gas, were not as safe or comfortable, etc. And Airbus
is only using China for some components, not the whole plane. Don't
worry, being Western Europe based, Airbus is gonna be run a lot closer
to your ideas of how to protect workers and better things than here in
the US.
The knowledge drain from the US to China has been monumental as well. US
company starts manufacturing over there, next thing they know they have a
new competitor using everything they learned from the US company.
Oh! Yes, better to hide everything and erect obstacles to trade and
knowledge. I don't suppose we learned anything about cost effective
manufacturing and quality from Japan either, did we?
Guess who benefits
from this in the long term? China will be the super power and the US will
in many respects be third worlded. Or do you think it is a good thing to
have people in the USA compete for jobs with china?
What works is a free economy.
There is no such thing. Then again you probably don't know about China's
local content laws either. If a given percentage of your product isn't
made in China you will suffer high tariffs selling it in China. Maybe in
the name of a 'free economy' the US can be like China in that respect?
And in that scenario, each country
makes products that fit their workforce and capabilities. Everyone
made your argument 40 years ago, when Japan was the boogey man. Then
is was supposed to be Taiwan that was going to ruin us all. Then
Korea. Funny how we are still here and by any reasonable
interpretation of actual economic statistics, we're doing quite well.
Japan was never a boogey man. That is a false argument, Japan doesn't use
slave labor, Japan has been an industrialized nation since before world
war two, it has labor and environmental protections. It's companies
competed with US companies on a more or less even footing. What is going
on with China is that US companies are relocating their manufacturing to
a police state where it can pay people next to nothing. That's
considerably different and only those people with no grasp of the
realities of the situation make such a comparison.
Typical elitist attitude. You know what's best for everyone.
Because someone makes a fraction of the wages somewhere else, we should
lock them out, so they go unemployed and hungry instead. These people
want to work and are happy with the wages. Over time, they lift
themselves up the economic scale, just as anyone who wants to can here
in the US. Look as Shanghei. Accoridng to you, it should be a slum.
If we're failing anywhere, it's because we have a segment of the
population that doesn't get educated, doesn't even finish high school.
The solution to that is to work on that problem, not try to compete in
making shirts or baskets on the theory that the solution is to have
more no skills jobs to compete with foreign low cost labor.
Again you have no grasp of the situation. It's not just such things being
done in China. I suggest you start paying closer attention to things
around you. Maybe even check the tag on the back of your computer
monitor.
I need to pay attention? You're the one relying on personal opinion
instead of real economic numbers. You sound like the typical whacko
leftist, running around saying the economy is terrible, worst it's been
since the great depression and basing it on what you know to be,
instead of any real data.