"Robert Sturgeon" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 7 Aug 2006 18:29:31 -0500, "Jeff McCann"
wrote:


"Robert Sturgeon" wrote in message
.. .
On Sun, 6 Aug 2006 20:13:55 -0500, "Jeff McCann"
wrote:

(snips)

I'm not talking about going through an economic shift, but
an economic/societal collapse. Different story...

Time to define our terms, I think. So, what does an economic/societal
collapse mean to you?

Personally, I expect American society to die with a whimper, not a
bang,
over a span of many generations, in a way that is not readily apparent
to
many who are living through it.

That's possible, and most likely. But...

I can give you another scenario: 5 or 6 120 kt nukes go off
in NYC, LA, DC, Chicago, Seattle, etc. (Hezbollah, Al Qaida,
etc. have "won".) The investment, banking, and fed gov
systems go into paralysis.

All of which is backed up, off site, routinely, at least as to the more
important stuff, and all of which tends to have a rather extensive paper
trail (an auditing requirement), allowing fairly easy restoration in many
cases.

You are ignoring the psychological shock inflicted on the
survivors which might cause them to re-examine, and then
discard, the underlying assumptions propping up the existing
socio-economic system. For example, exactly from whom would
they take direction if almost all the leadership of the
Federal Government, Wall Street, et al., are killed within a
half hour? Given that the currency is based solely on the
faith and credit of the United States, and not any real
assets or values at all, and that the Federal Government is
suddenly decapitated (actually, worse than merely
decapitated), why do you suppose things would just go on --
business as usual? Run the backups, get out the paper
records, find the Secretary of Agriculture and swear him in
-- he happened to be in Iowa at time -- and everything will
get back on track in a day or two? The geezers will still
get their SS checks, the welfare checks will still go out as
usual (I know -- the EBT cards will be refilled), people
will still dutifully file their 1040s, the money will still
be as valuable as it was, or even half as valuable as it
was? Assuming that seems to me to be overly optimistic.
The economic shocks from 9/11 cost the U.S. economy hundreds
of billions of dollars, and that was trivial compared to a
multi-city nuclear attack.

I'm sure you're right in that a good faith effort would be
made to maintain something close to the status quo ante, but
I doubt it could be done.

It really is hard to say, but I do know quite alot from direct personal
observation about how people react when their lives are totally disrupted,
homes and jobs completely gone, communities devastated, loved ones missing,
hurt or killed, little or no news from outside, etc. I'm willing to rely
more than you appear to be on the basic resiliency of the American character
in the face of adversity, as well as in the basic robustness of our social,
economic and political systems.

As for the large scale economic losses, we've been down that road before,
and not just in the Great Depression of the 1930s. Prosperity isn't just
centered on Wall Street, it's built on Main Street, as well. There's a lot
of fat and fluff in the American economy and lifestyle, and most people can
manage to do with far less than they think, and they can rebuild and
overcome faster than they think, too. Crises have a way of evolving into
new opportunities. It's would suck big-time, to be sure, but it wouldn't
suck forever.

And no, I don't think "everything will get back on track in a day or two,"
but I do think most things will get back on track eventually, in many cases
faster than you think. Some things will, indeed, change or be lost forever.
But a new "normal" will soon be established, perhaps different than status
quo ante, but not all that different.

Jeff