The Natural Philosopher wrote:
wrote:
The Natural Philosopher wrote:

So much of what we do we do because its cheap and simple, and very
inefficient. If energy prices rise, it all becomes economic.

The trouble with that view is that the goods we purchase come primarily
down to energy cost and human time cost. IOW as energy prices rise, so
do the costs of the energy saving equipment. Regrettably this wont make
every measure affordable. What it will do is make currently affordable
technologies pay back much more, thus start to be used when now we dont
bother.

That is only so if the energy saving equipment uses more energy (or far
more labour) to make.


If the former is true, its not energy saving is it?

I suggest its slightly more complex in that the real energy figures we
make decisions on are not primarily the energy embodied in manufacture,
but the energy used to run a business. This is why mass produced goods
are so much cheaper than low volume goods, the embodied manufacturing
energy might be the same (not always) but the energy used running the
manufacture business and distribution chain varies hugely on a per item
basis. It is this extra overhead on low volume sales that often blocks
adoption of what would be energy saving goods if you look at
manufacturing energy alone.

Rising energy prices will not improve this overhead any. They may, or
may not, reduce our standard of living, if they do we will be able to
invest in less energy saving expenditure rather than more. Maybe there
are too many unknowns to know which way it goes. We cant even assume
energy costs will rise in the longer term, though they are doing so in
the short term.

One thing thats clear is that we will have abundant cheap energy at
some point, but we dont know when, and whether or not it will occur in
our life time. Its likely it wont, but it may.


In each case pure economics - labour versus energy costs - rules. Up the
energy costs and that shifts the balances.

yes, absolutely. And money is some kind of guide to the real embodied
energy as opposed to hte more often discussed manufacturing-only
embodied energy. Money isnt an accurate measure short term, but fairly
accurate longer term, once initial blips have settled down to a
steadyish state.


Those who peruse the FT will have noticed the extreme rise in activity
in agricultural futures on energy raw materials - cereals for ethanol -
rape for biodiesel. These are now break even or profitable ways to
generate fuel. With oil at $75 a barrel.

There are energy options with costs not too far above that of oil, and
this will cap the rise of energy costs. The future is not as bleak as
some seem to think.


NT