"geoff merryweather" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 16 Oct 2003 13:51:22 GMT, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:
"geoff merryweather" wrote in message
.. .
On Tue, 14 Oct 2003 05:14:11 GMT, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:
If it makes you happy, call it protectionism. Most people would say
it's
protectionism only if it limits imports in some way. Offsets don't
limit
imports. They just require an equal amount of imports at the other
end.
Sounds good - so when is the US going to take more New Zealand
imports?
I'm glad it sounds good to you, Geoff, because New Zealand currently is
US$468 million in the hole. g In other words, in 2002 you ran a
positive
trade balance with the US of $468 million. You have a lot of buying to do
before you catch up.
You forget a few points. NZ has a population of 4 million. You could
drop it into a number of US cities, and notice little change (except a
decent rugby team that could win a World Series where other countries
are invited to play as well 
That $468m works out at ~$1.50 each American - how much is a burger
again? To put it into perspective, the US economy IIRC is ~700
trillion GDP give or take a few hundred billion. I may have missed a
few zeros.
Ah, the US economy is around US$10 trillion GDP. It was $7 billion a few
years back. You probably added a couple of zeros. g
To expect NZ to buy $US468m pa from the US is unrealistic - we cannot
afford or need that much "stuff". More to the point, as you have
noted, the US no longer makes anything (more about that later), so
buying from the US is not necessarily an option. Why buy an item from
the US - half way around the world, when it is cheaper to buy exactly
the same item from Asia or Australia?
Finally, does that trade figure take into account the issues of
transfer pricing and foreign ownership and repatriated profits?
I have no idea. If you want to look at the types of things we export to each
other, you'll find them he
http://www.stats.govt.nz/domino/exte...ade+Statistics
Take a look at the Principal Markets report near the bottom of the page.
Beef is the big item. Do we own your beef production? Casein ? is number
two. Is that a US-controlled industry? You'll have to tell us. We don't
know.
although the US doesn't make anything these days, US corporations
still own big chunks of overseas companies and operations.
Oh, jeez. US manufacturing is producing more than it ever has in history,
whether you look at it in constant dollars or current dollars, in terms of
value-added, or anything you want to talk about. There is a modest two-year
falloff in production that corresponds to the recession. Otherwise, we've
been pumping stuff out like there's no tomorrow.
It isn't that the US produces nothing. The problem our manufacturing faces
is two-fold: First, specific industries are completely vulnerable to
targeted, low-cost competition from low-wage countries, and some of them are
crucial metalworking industries that will have a multiplier effect
throughout the economy. Second, we're in for a whole hell of a lot more of
it, as US companies have laid plans for VAST increases in their component
and finished-product imports from China, and for services-outsourcing to
India.
What I've been writing about is not the consequences of what has gone on
before, but rather the consequences of structural changes occuring right
now, and a genuine economic threat that's just starting to appear.
The profits
from those shares go back to the parent companies. Do these count as
"trade"/ Telecom NZ sent ~$US400m back to the then US owners in one
year a few years ago. The joys of a monopoly...
The other point is transfer pricing. One of the benefits of being an
Evil Capitalist Megacorp is that you can fiddle the prices charged to
overseas branches to take advantage of relative tax rates or to return
profits while avoiding tax. A good example is software. The actual
physical cost of the media and manual is say $20. What is charged is
something else. Does this count as "trade"?
I'm sorry, Geoff, but with your country running a US$468 million surplus
with the US, it sounds like what you want is more, and that you're using all
of the details as grumbling fodder and to justify your demand for even more
surplus. You already have a trade surplus with the US that amounts to
something like $120/person. What more do you want? $500? $1,000?
US companies are free to export to NZ, how about returning the favour?
Trade is not a one way trip.
That's what I've been saying. Right now, the round trip is resulting in a
trade surplus for New Zealand. How about returning the favor and restoring
some balance?
What kind of sheep baloney are they feeding you down there? g
Buy some NZ lamb and find out :-) IIRC the average US consumption for
sheep meat is ~1 lamb chop per person.
Your comments appreciated Ed. I thought that article you did on China
was very good. I printed it off and have it for some bedtime reading.
Thanks, Geoff. I hope it resulted in a sound night's sleep. g
--
Ed Huntress
(remove "3" from email address for email reply)