On Thu, 19 Jan 2006 07:43:15 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:

But, as Harry Truman used to say, what we need is some one-armed economists.
"My economists are always telling me, on the one hand, but then on the other
hand..." g

It is always irritating to the "suits" (who always have the "one"
right answer) to realize that many circumstances are so complex
and fluid that there is no one "right answer," and given the
interrelatedness of the world, indeed no single condition, but
rather only a single aspect they are concentrating on at the
time. Remember the seven blind wise men and the elephant....

As someone who spent nearly a year of his life researching for some articles
on world trade, talking daily to top economists in and out of government, I
wouldn't believe any estimates from any of them.
Right on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

For one thing the estimates aren't even consistent. For example,
one countries exports must be another countries imports, thus the
total of global imports and global exports must sum to zero,
which they do not from the published figures. Are we sending
this stuff to Mars?

The assumptions economists make in order to mathmatically
represent and analize economic activity are real howlers. My
favorate is "assuming zero transaction costs." A close second is
"Assuming perfect information." I can assume that my aunt has
some cajones too, but that dosen't make her my uncle, and she
never will be.

Uncle George