"Ron Bean" wrote in message
...

"Ed Huntress" writes:

(I'm open to suggestions.)

Healthcare services look good.

I see it demographically, but I'm wondering who's going to pay
for it. If that's our only viable industry, we're in trouble.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure I have the right personality to be
dealing with patients directly (not that I'm unfriendly, but I
think it would drive me nuts after a while). But I also know that
job satisfaction typically depends on who you work for rather
than what business you're in (organizational psychology is a
fascinating topic-- I wish I could figure out how to make a
living at it).

"Human resources." In a big company, it presents a lot of opportunities.


Driving an economy with exports is something that you do from a position
of
economic weakness. If you have a very strong economy, you may do better
by
importing more than you export.

Will we still have a strong economy in 10 years?

I think so, but if my long-term economic predictions were reliable, I'd be
rich. I'm not. g

I'm just trying to point out the differences between the ideologies we're
being fed and the realities, to focus attention on the "displacements" that
free-trade economists dust off so easily, but which translate into serious
ups and downs in human lives.

Also, I'm alarmed about how little political and economic leaders understand
about the dynamics of manufacturing. It makes me deeply suspicious that
their "big picture" economic views are based on reality. They do love their
theories.


This is a very contentious and complex issue. If you want to know the
theoretical basis on which our economy operates, a good place to start is
with a 23-year-old book titled _Free To Choose_, written by
Nobel-prize-winning economist Milton Friedman. It's an easy read, written
for the layman. There is one short chapter about trade. In one sitting,
you'll see what lies behind the thinking of the free-trade ideologues.
You
may be very surprised; most people are.

It's interesting that you'd recommend this, because he's usually
portrayed as the most rabid ultra-free-trade zealot on the planet
(ie, someone who thinks theory is more valid than reality).

He may be, but he's also the respected economist who popularized the
theories that became Reaganomics. And we've been living under that theory
ever since, without interruption.



There's an interesting book called "Turbo Capitalism" by Edward
Luttwak (published in 1999, so slightly out of date now, but it
has a brief section on China that matches what you've been
writing). He points out that deregulated economies are very
efficient but also highly unstable. His conclusion seems to be
that we'll have plenty of jobs, but most of them won't pay much
(but you'll be free to work 80 hrs/wk to make up for it-- this is
called "progress").

I've heard of it but I haven't read it. There's a lot to read, but I'll keep
my eye out for it.


BTW if you hear NPR's "Marketplace" program, I just heard an ad
for a segment tonight about how people see their economic future.

I just turned it on and it's about other topics here. Too bad. Maybe
tomorrow.

--
Ed Huntress
(remove "3" from email address for email reply)