"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
. net...
"bg" wrote in message
om...


But the best way for us to "break out" of this cycle is to innovate.
we did it with IT in the 90's. Now we just need to find that next
engine of growth and innovate. I would nominate energy as being the
best all around possibility, with the greatest potential. Cheap energy
independence would affect every single industry in the country and the
world. Only we would be the masters of a a new technology. The
possibilities are limitless.

And what if another IT doesn't come along? And why would we have an
exclusive on new energy technology?


That is always the question! What will we do if we cannot make buggy
whips?
There is no guarantee that we will have a lock on any new technology. What
can give us the edge is to have a society that is receptive to change. The
attitude that we must protect industries where we were successful is
fatal. Japan is no better example.

New technology favors no one. The ones that will win are those that
are willing to embrace it.

Technology has become a commodity on world markets. IT may be the last big
example in which one county had an edge. The reason we had an edge in IT
for
so long is that Europe made a big mistake, protecting their emerging IT
market with quotas. And Japan made another mistake, with "industrial
planning," putting huge government support behind particular chip
technologies, which quickly became obsolete.


Technology is not a commodity. Existing technologies become commodities.
How can new technologies be commodities? We don't even know what they
are.

China and India have learned from those mistakes of others and are not
likely to make them again.


We don't know if China and India have learned from other's mistakes,
they have not had the opportunity to make their own mistakes. Only
time will tell. Who would have thought that Japan would self-distruct?

One US tool company manager who traveled to China early this year was
struck
by seeing more advanced EDMs and molding presses on plant floors than the
ones that are used by US industry. The linear-motor Sodicks and long rows
of
German presses knocked him out. The Chinese can implement new technology
fast enough to make your head spin. And U.S. companies that invest there
tend to put in better technology than that which they have in their North
American plants. Shanghai-GM's new engine line, which is now starting to
make the complete engines for the 2004 Chevy Equinox SUV (to be installed
in
Canada, and then shipped to the US), probably is the most advanced engine
manufacturing line in the world.

It's hard to imagine an innovation on which we would have an exclusive for
very long.


No one is given a free ride. It is very damaging to expect one. If we
concentrate
on using governmental protection for industries where we have had past
success,
we will surely miss the boat for the next new thing. Indeed, the "next new
thing"
has been our savior many times in the past. What gives people weak knees
it
that it is awfully hard to see where the next one is coming from.

Perhaps it is useful to have these arguments because we get delayed in
doing anything too damaging.

--
Ed Huntress
(remove "3" from email address for email reply)

None of these arguments are new. I just hope that we don't follow the
protectionist course, it will surely be our doom.

Pete.