On 3 Aug 2003 19:32:34 -0700, (ROCKY HELMS)
wrote:

I was just curious what you guys think about the future of
manufacturing in this country. You here alot of people say that there
will be no future 10 or 20 years from now. I'm 27 years old and have
been a machinist for 10 years,i was lucky to get a job in a big
machine shop when i was a senior in high school and have been lucky to
work with some of the old craftsman of the machining trade. I
consider myself very lucky to have worked with the people that i have.
I have been a machinist in Winston-cup racing since i was 18 so i am
in a different industry than alot of you guys,buy if i ever was to
decide to leave racing and work for a machine shop again i would like
for it to be in an industry that wasn't on the way across the big
pond. I would like to here from some of the shop owners on this as
well. Are alot of the shops still struggling to get work,and if so
which types of industries are the hardest hit. Which types do you
think will be around for years to come. I love the machining trade
alot,and would like to have my own shop someday(that's my dream
anyway). Are there any of you all that own a shop doing parts for the
racing industry or for custom bike,and car builders? If so how is that
type of business doing,that is what i'm wanting to do maybe 10 years
down the road. Thank you all for taking the time to read this and good
luck to you all.

Interesting post. Im a machine tool mechanic and its been a VERY grim
3 yrs for manufacturing.

The medical parts shops seem to be doing pretty good.
The aerospace parts have been right in the toilet
The general job shops have been hurting, with auctions at an all time
high.

"Bottom Line" has caused a BUNCH of work to got to both Mexico, and
China. And now a lot of work is going to India and other countries
that work even cheaper than China, if you can imagine that.

However.... most of my clients report that requests for quotes are
picking up, purchase orders are starting to come in, and in general,
things are starting to speed up once again.
That for the short term....

In the long term...the outlook is bleak, at least to me and many of
the forecasters. The War is requiring new parts, as inventory items
are being depleted for all types of machinery, and that will continue
for some time. Stockholders/CFOs driven by short term profits will
continue to send work offshore.

A lot of small marginal and even some large marginal machine shops
have bit the big one, in the last 3-4 yrs.

There are some other aspects that need to be looked at though. Molds
for example, have been going overseas, but the return rate of utter
**** has been very high, and the surviving US shops report a lot of
rework of bad mold making. I suspect that a lot of folks are simply
going to start specing that US shops get the work, even if its
initially more expensive as the lead times and **** up rates with
overseas makers is approaching the break point, to keep it incountry.

"Just in time" orders often make it better, though not cheaper to keep
the work in the US.

On the other hand..US machine shops have learned to stream line,
become more efficient and more competative. Which reduces the costs
while keeping the famous US quality pretty good. If the offshore
machinists ever get the quality up to par with US shops..US machinist
will be in a world of ****.

There is a very active and aggressive movement afoot by various
organizations to force the US goverment into keeping parts sold to the
Government, made in the US. There are several reasons for this, not
the least of which is keeping the money at home, but also making sure
that critical parts for the military are not being made by a possible
future enemy..its a bitch if an Abrams tank needs a critical part, and
we have to order it from China, and we are ingaged in some issue with
China..... If we get involved in North Korea, and China pulls the plug
on trade with the US, critical items will take several years to tool
up and make their way into the supply lines.

Ed Huntress on alt.machines.cnc is senior editor for Machining
Magazine, and has written a series of articles on the subject, which
are very worth reading.

If I was young, and about to start a career, Id personally go into the
medical field, Xray, etc etc etc. Our aging population makes this a
growth industry, and the future is damned cloudy about
machining/manufacturing..shrug.

Please God, let there be another manufacturing boom, so I can make a
bit to put aside, and when I retire, not have to make the choice
between Kibbles N Bits and macaroni and cheese, and to LET me retire,
and not die on the job.

Gunner

"What do you call someone in possesion of all the facts? Paranoid.-William Burroughs