Matt wrote:
On 17 Nov 2005 18:07:38 -0800, wrote:
Imho no lights will go out though, prices (and energy saving drives)
will take care of that.
As a "for instance" the electricity selling price (not the cost of
generation) just dropped straight through the floor around five years
ago. As a result a major power station (7% of the installed UK
capacity) went bankrupt and was repossessed by the bankers,
fortunately they had difficulty offloading it as scrap otherwise we
really could be in the ****. That same power station is now on the
market and in a bidding war attracting offers around GBP2bn. Until
there is a coherent national energy policy and stable market
conditions no investor (other than one who has been siphoning off IMF
funds) will contemplate entering the market.
You're posing half the story only. Basic capitalist concepts tell us
that if the power station were decommissioned and we reached the point
where supply were insufficient, electricity prices would rise until
investors would return to the market. IRL the moves are slow enough and
preditable enough that a major station being decommissioned then
another getting rebuilt would be pretty unlikely.
NT