On Thu, 17 Nov 2005 23:36:23 +0000 someone who may be Matt
wrote this:-

the planning implications of huge (or even less than huge)
amounts of wind generation are immense, the consumer will still need
to stump up the costs for conventional plant lying idle for the day
the wind drops.

The report at http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/renewables/ukwind disagrees
with you.

On the myth of wind power being unavailable for long periods it has
this to say:

"Low wind speed conditions affecting 90% or more of the UK would
occur in around one hour every five years during winter;
The chance of wind turbines shutting down due to high wind speed
conditions is very rare - high winds affecting 40% or more of the UK
would occur in around one hour every 10 years."

On the myth of wild fluctuations in wind output it has this to say:

"The most likely change in power output from a diversified wind
power system from one hour to the next is less than plus or minus
2.5% of the total installed wind power capacity. Larger changes from
one hour to the next do occur - a change in hourly output equal to
around plus or minus 20% of the installed wind power capacity is
likely to happen about once per year."

Note that wind forecasting for the next hour or two is highly
accurate and hydro and gas turbine plants can start within a couple
of minutes. The anti-wind claim that coal fired plant running
constantly in reserve is necessary in case the wind suddenly stops
blowing is a myth.

As Energy Minister Malcolm Wicks is reported as saying:

"The only sensible debate about energy is one based on the facts.
This new research is a nail in the coffin of some of the exaggerated
myths peddled by opponents of wind power."

http://www.bwea.com/media/news/141105.html


As for conventional plant lying idle, unless wind exceeds around 20%
of total generation there is negligible extra plant than there would
be if that 20% was generated by nuclear, coal or whatever.

http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/page...list/wind.html and
navigate down to the "Download our booklet 'Wind Power: Your
Questions Answered', for householders" link then Section 5 of the
booklet.

"Many people wonder what happens when the wind doesn’t blow. The
truth is that the national grid system is already designed to cope
with large fluctuations in supply and demand. It must deal with
rapid surges in demand – such as during the breakfast period or at
the end of a televised football match when millions of kettles are
used at the same time.

"National Grid Company has confirmed that accommodating significant
amounts of wind capacity on the electricity system is unlikely to
pose any major operational challenges. Indeed there’s no technical
limit on the amount of wind that can be absorbed by the system – the
issue is simply one of cost.

"Wind power is becoming easier to predict. As it becomes more
dispersed around the country it is increasingly unlikely that all
the UK’s wind farms will be out of action at the same time. To cover
for any shortfall will require a small increase in the ‘balancing
services’ that are routinely used by the network operator. This, and
issues such as grid reinforcement, will add a small amount to the
cost of electricity, which is explained below.

"How will increased use of wind power affect my electricity bill?

"Let’s assume that by 2020, we have achieved the Government’s goal
of generating 20% of our electricity by renewable means – and this
done solely via wind power. In this case, the extra cost to
consumers of integrating wind power would be about 3.8% of the
current domestic charge – around £13 on the average annual UK bill.
If the environmental benefit of reduced carbon dioxide emissions is
calculated and included, the additional ‘social’ cost of wind power
will be less – possibly zero."

Those who want further information can go to the "Download our full
report 'Wind Power in the UK'" link. Section 3 of the report is the
place that covers this issue.


For some information specifically on microgeneration
http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/news...KMFYS8-5OZZIS2
is a good start.



--
David Hansen, Edinburgh
I will *always* explain revoked encryption keys, unless RIP prevents me
http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2000/00023--e.htm#54