On the news just now...

Apparently gas consumption today would be 400M cubic metres, but
there's only 350M cubic metres available, so a gas deficit has been
declared. This means large industrial users will have their gas cut
off for part of the day.

The two contributory factors are 1/3rd extra usage today over normal
due to the weather, and two gas import docks broken down.

Centrica closed our North Sea gas storage last year, which held 9
weeks supply of gas, due ot it being not commercially viable
anymore. Gas spot price currently 190p/therm.

--
Andrew Gabriel
[email address is not usable -- followup in the newsgroup]

On 01/03/2018 08:55, Andrew Gabriel wrote:
On the news just now...

Apparently gas consumption today would be 400M cubic metres, but
there's only 350M cubic metres available, so a gas deficit has been
declared. This means large industrial users will have their gas cut
off for part of the day.

The two contributory factors are 1/3rd extra usage today over normal
due to the weather, and two gas import docks broken down.

Centrica closed our North Sea gas storage last year, which held 9
weeks supply of gas, due ot it being not commercially viable
anymore. Gas spot price currently 190p/therm.


Interesting. Does "large industrial users" include CCGTs?

In article ,
newshound writes:
On 01/03/2018 08:55, Andrew Gabriel wrote:
On the news just now...

Apparently gas consumption today would be 400M cubic metres, but
there's only 350M cubic metres available, so a gas deficit has been
declared. This means large industrial users will have their gas cut
off for part of the day.

The two contributory factors are 1/3rd extra usage today over normal
due to the weather, and two gas import docks broken down.

Centrica closed our North Sea gas storage last year, which held 9
weeks supply of gas, due ot it being not commercially viable
anymore. Gas spot price currently 190p/therm.

Interesting. Does "large industrial users" include CCGTs?

That question went through my mind too.

Many years ago when the CCGT's sprung up, they all bought cheap
gas on tarrifs which allowed them to be shut off if there's a
shortage of gas, and that nearly lead to blackouts on one
occasion. The upshot was that they shouldn't be allowed to
buy gas on tarrifs which allow shutting off, but I don't know
if that was implemented in regulations or law (or in practice).

--
Andrew Gabriel
[email address is not usable -- followup in the newsgroup]

Andrew Gabriel wrote:

newshound wrote:

Does "large industrial users" include CCGTs?

That question went through my mind too.

I couldn't see any relevant looking planned/unplanned outages on bmreports

In article ,
Andy Burns writes:
Andrew Gabriel wrote:

newshound wrote:

Does "large industrial users" include CCGTs?

That question went through my mind too.

I couldn't see any relevant looking planned/unplanned outages on bmreports

Just heard on the radio - CCGTs are told to shut down first,
before any other sectors of industry, when there's a gas shortage.

--
Andrew Gabriel
[email address is not usable -- followup in the newsgroup]

On 01/03/18 13:17, Andrew Gabriel wrote:
In article ,
Andy Burns writes:
Andrew Gabriel wrote:

newshound wrote:

Does "large industrial users" include CCGTs?

That question went through my mind too.

I couldn't see any relevant looking planned/unplanned outages on bmreports

Just heard on the radio - CCGTs are told to shut down first,
before any other sectors of industry, when there's a gas shortage.

WOW!

I wonder if that is true

which radio by the way?

Perhaps finally this whole sodding debate will get public attention and
what we have all being saying for years - windmills and solar panels are
crap and its dangerous to rely on them - will finally get listened to.



--
No Apple devices were knowingly used in the preparation of this post.

On Thu, 1 Mar 2018 13:17:56 -0000 (UTC), (Andrew
Gabriel) wrote:

Just heard on the radio - CCGTs are told to shut down first,
before any other sectors of industry, when there's a gas shortage.

The ones with interruptible contracts will not even be in the market for
electricity supply at the moment.

--

On Thu, 1 Mar 2018 10:07:50 +0000, Andy Burns wrote:

Andrew Gabriel wrote:

newshound wrote:

Does "large industrial users" include CCGTs?

That question went through my mind too.

I couldn't see any relevant looking planned/unplanned outages on bmreports

You won't (Drax is missing one biomass unit from a week or so ago)

Yesterday marked the end of the three months of winter where the allocation of
use of grid system charges are determined. From today demand management will be
more relaxed which given the current weather makes it even more interesting

Failure *is* always an option but it is very costly £3300/MWh for loss of supply
(but with lots of exclusions)

For those in the capacity market it's also 100% of their annual payments for
failure to generate as required during the period of a demand control
instruction. That could be £20 million / GW of installed capacity per 'event'
from October 2018 onwards covering 49+GW of 'firm' generation i.e not wind

Wade through the second half of this and you can see the assumptions made for
gas demand

https://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/docu...outlook-report

Roughly 25% of our total annual gas consumption is for electricity generation

Gas fired generation has been down for knocking up a week now.
--

On 01/03/2018 10:00, Andrew Gabriel wrote:
In article ,
newshound writes:
On 01/03/2018 08:55, Andrew Gabriel wrote:
On the news just now...

Apparently gas consumption today would be 400M cubic metres, but
there's only 350M cubic metres available, so a gas deficit has been
declared. This means large industrial users will have their gas cut
off for part of the day.

The two contributory factors are 1/3rd extra usage today over normal
due to the weather, and two gas import docks broken down.

Centrica closed our North Sea gas storage last year, which held 9
weeks supply of gas, due ot it being not commercially viable
anymore. Gas spot price currently 190p/therm.

ROFL Market farces in action.
Just in time supply of gas in mid-winter "what could possibly go wrong?"

Interesting. Does "large industrial users" include CCGTs?

That question went through my mind too.

Many years ago when the CCGT's sprung up, they all bought cheap
gas on tarrifs which allowed them to be shut off if there's a
shortage of gas, and that nearly lead to blackouts on one
occasion. The upshot was that they shouldn't be allowed to
buy gas on tarrifs which allow shutting off, but I don't know
if that was implemented in regulations or law (or in practice).

I suspect plenty of CCGTs are on the intermittent rate so it could get
interesting before too long (ancient Chinese usage). Interesting==bad.

If there is a gas crunch then we will see who is on the intermittent
tariffs - there are fewer steelworks to cut off than there used to be.

For now it is just affecting the spot market pricing.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On 01/03/2018 11:16, Martin Brown wrote:
On 01/03/2018 10:00, Andrew Gabriel wrote:
In article ,
Â*Â*Â*Â*newshound writes:
On 01/03/2018 08:55, Andrew Gabriel wrote:
On the news just now...

Apparently gas consumption today would be 400M cubic metres, but
there's only 350M cubic metres available, so a gas deficit has been
declared. This means large industrial users will have their gas cut
off for part of the day.

The two contributory factors are 1/3rd extra usage today over normal
due to the weather, and two gas import docks broken down.

Centrica closed our North Sea gas storage last year, which held 9
weeks supply of gas, due ot it being not commercially viable
anymore. Gas spot price currently 190p/therm.

ROFL Market farces in action.
Just in time supply of gas in mid-winter "what could possibly go wrong?"

Interesting. Does "large industrial users" include CCGTs?

That question went through my mind too.

Many years ago when the CCGT's sprung up, they all bought cheap
gas on tarrifs which allowed them to be shut off if there's a
shortage of gas, and that nearly lead to blackouts on one
occasion. The upshot was that they shouldn't be allowed to
buy gas on tarrifs which allow shutting off, but I don't know
if that was implemented in regulations or law (or in practice).

I suspect plenty of CCGTs are on the intermittent rate so it could get
interesting before too long (ancient Chinese usage). Interesting==bad.

If there is a gas crunch then we will see who is on the intermittent
tariffs - there are fewer steelworks to cut off than there used to be.

For now it is just affecting the spot market pricing.

Daughter works for Gazprom, must give her a ring tonight.

On 01/03/2018 11:45, newshound wrote:
On 01/03/2018 11:16, Martin Brown wrote:
On 01/03/2018 10:00, Andrew Gabriel wrote:


For now it is just affecting the spot market pricing.

Daughter works for Gazprom, must give her a ring tonight.

"...gas price higher than I have ever seen it and a power cashout price
of £995 /MWh! Thankfully my team were on the right side of it!!"

On Thursday, 1 March 2018 11:16:11 UTC, Martin Brown wrote:
If there is a gas crunch then we will see who is on the intermittent
tariffs - there are fewer steelworks to cut off than there used to be.

All the shiny new electrified trains in Scotland aren't running; that would have help a bit if they hadn't been not running anyway because of delayed delivery.

Owain

On Thu, 1 Mar 2018 08:58:06 +0000, newshound
wrote:

On 01/03/2018 08:55, Andrew Gabriel wrote:
On the news just now...

Apparently gas consumption today would be 400M cubic metres, but
there's only 350M cubic metres available, so a gas deficit has been
declared. This means large industrial users will have their gas cut
off for part of the day.

The two contributory factors are 1/3rd extra usage today over normal
due to the weather, and two gas import docks broken down.

Centrica closed our North Sea gas storage last year, which held 9
weeks supply of gas, due ot it being not commercially viable
anymore. Gas spot price currently 190p/therm.


Interesting. Does "large industrial users" include CCGTs?


That all depends on their specific gas supply arrangements, if they are
connected to the gas transmission system or have a dedicated pipeline.

Also if they have interrupible gas contracts. Many do. But industrial users
will be kicked off first.

Without the wind generation we'd have been a long way up that iced over creek
called **** for most of this week.

Even with it it's 'interesting'

--

On 01/03/2018 10:11, The Other Mike wrote:


Without the wind generation we'd have been a long way up that iced over creek
called **** for most of this week.


If we didn't have wind generation the vast sums spent subsidising it
could have been spent on other sources - preferably ones which are not
intermittent.


--
Robin
reply-to address is (intended to be) valid

On 01/03/18 10:30, Robin wrote:
On 01/03/2018 10:11, The Other Mike wrote:


Without the wind generation we'd have been a long way up that iced
over creek
called **** for most of this week.


If we didn't have wind generation the vast sums spent subsidising it
could have been spent on other sources - preferably ones which are not
intermittent.


Exactly.

I think there's about 15GW of wind capacity in all.

at a MINIMUM thats cost £30bn

Thats a couple of Hinkley points at 6.4GW solid output. That will last
40 years

2017 average wind output?


mysql select avg(wind) from day where timestamp like '2017%';
+--------------------+
| avg(wind) |
+--------------------+
| 3689.9103407565385 |
+--------------------+

Wind averages about 3.6GW

And turbines are scrap in 12-15 years




--
To ban Christmas, simply give turkeys the vote.

On 01/03/18 10:55, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
On 01/03/18 10:30, Robin wrote:
On 01/03/2018 10:11, The Other Mike wrote:


Without the wind generation we'd have been a long way up that iced
over creek
called **** for most of this week.


If we didn't have wind generation the vast sums spent subsidising it
could have been spent on other sources - preferably ones which are not
intermittent.


Exactly.

I think there's about 15GW of wind capacity in all.

at a MINIMUM thats cost £30bn

Thats a couple of Hinkley points at 6.4GW solid output. That will last
40 years

2017 average wind output?


mysql select avg(wind) from day where timestamp like '2017%';
+--------------------+
| avg(wind)Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* |
+--------------------+
| 3689.9103407565385 |
+--------------------+

Wind averages about 3.6GW

And turbines are scrap in 12-15 years





So around £63 / MWh ?

In article , Robin
writes
On 01/03/2018 10:11, The Other Mike wrote:

Without the wind generation we'd have been a long way up that iced
over creek
called **** for most of this week.


If we didn't have wind generation the vast sums spent subsidising it
could have been spent on other sources - preferably ones which are not
intermittent.


E.g. nukes
--
bert

On Thu, 01 Mar 2018 10:38:21 +0000, Tim Streater
wrote:

In article , Robin
wrote:

On 01/03/2018 10:11, The Other Mike wrote:


Without the wind generation we'd have been a long way up that iced over creek
called **** for most of this week.


If we didn't have wind generation the vast sums spent subsidising it
could have been spent on other sources - preferably ones which are not
intermittent.

Such as nukes, f'rinstance, which even at £90-odd per MWh look cheap
compared to any form of renewable.

It could have been *MINUS* £6/MWh
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/up...ey-Point-C.pdf
Figure 20

Instead we have the Burbo Bank Extension
https://lowcarboncontracts.uk/cfds/burbo
£161.71/MWh

--

On 01/03/18 10:11, The Other Mike wrote:
On Thu, 1 Mar 2018 08:58:06 +0000, newshound
wrote:

On 01/03/2018 08:55, Andrew Gabriel wrote:
On the news just now...

Apparently gas consumption today would be 400M cubic metres, but
there's only 350M cubic metres available, so a gas deficit has been
declared. This means large industrial users will have their gas cut
off for part of the day.

The two contributory factors are 1/3rd extra usage today over normal
due to the weather, and two gas import docks broken down.

Centrica closed our North Sea gas storage last year, which held 9
weeks supply of gas, due ot it being not commercially viable
anymore. Gas spot price currently 190p/therm.


Interesting. Does "large industrial users" include CCGTs?


That all depends on their specific gas supply arrangements, if they are
connected to the gas transmission system or have a dedicated pipeline.

Also if they have interrupible gas contracts. Many do. But industrial users
will be kicked off first.

Without the wind generation we'd have been a long way up that iced over creek
called **** for most of this week.

Even with it it's 'interesting'

Ain't it just.

You should write some stuff on how the grid works commercially and I'll
stick it on Gridwatch.




--
The theory of Communism may be summed up in one sentence: Abolish all
private property.

Karl Marx

On 01/03/18 08:58, newshound wrote:
On 01/03/2018 08:55, Andrew Gabriel wrote:
On the news just now...

Apparently gas consumption today would be 400M cubic metres, but
there's only 350M cubic metres available, so a gas deficit has been
declared. This means large industrial users will have their gas cut
off for part of the day.

The two contributory factors are 1/3rd extra usage today over normal
due to the weather, and two gas import docks broken down.

Centrica closed our North Sea gas storage last year, which held 9
weeks supply of gas, due ot it being not commercially viable
anymore. Gas spot price currently 190p/therm.


Interesting. Does "large industrial users" include CCGTs?

I would say this is probably why coal is being burned.

As an aside, Gridwatch has smashed its online users record from 300-400
usually to over 1000

It's also smashed its peak bandwidth and briefly crashed its database
server, probably due to the amount of users being logged.


But donations are up :-) :-)

--
Climate Change: Socialism wearing a lab coat.

On 01/03/2018 10:35, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

As an aside, Gridwatch has smashed its online users record from 300-400
usually to over 1000

It's also smashed its peak bandwidth and briefly crashed its database
server, probably due to the amount of users being logged.


But donations are up :-) :-)


New users + donations up. Mmmm. I'd wait to see if you get complaints
from people who thought they were topping up their PAYG smart meter


--
Robin
reply-to address is (intended to be) valid

Andrew Gabriel wrote:

gas consumption today would be 400M cubic metres, but
there's only 350M cubic metres available, so a gas deficit has been
declared.

Sorry, I'm not helping by working from home and overriding the C/H
"hold" temperature for a few hours ...

In article ,
Andy Burns writes:
Andrew Gabriel wrote:

gas consumption today would be 400M cubic metres, but
there's only 350M cubic metres available, so a gas deficit has been
declared.

Sorry, I'm not helping by working from home and overriding the C/H
"hold" temperature for a few hours ...

I went in to my client's office in London yesterday, and it was almost
empty due to people working from home, in some cases because they couldn't
get in to work due to weather, and in other cases due to having colds.

I got stuck on the DLR for half an hour watching a couple of workmen
with a blowlamp unfreezing the points just in front of us, which was
mildly entertaining given I wasn't running to any tight schedule.

I'll bet many more people are working from home today, given the
weather, for those lucky enough to be able to do so.
I am, but that's normal for me.

--
Andrew Gabriel
[email address is not usable -- followup in the newsgroup]

On 01/03/18 10:11, Andrew Gabriel wrote:
I'll bet many more people are working from home today, given the
weather, for those lucky enough to be able to do so.
I am, but that's normal for me.

If only businesses were to realise that by and large not only does it
save them a fortune in expenisve office space and heating, but it saves
their employees massive amounts of time and money lost commuting.

As well as the nation huge amounts of wasted resources in transport
infrastructure and pollution.



--
The theory of Communism may be summed up in one sentence: Abolish all
private property.

Karl Marx

In article ,
The Natural Philosopher wrote:
On 01/03/18 10:11, Andrew Gabriel wrote:
I'll bet many more people are working from home today, given the
weather, for those lucky enough to be able to do so.
I am, but that's normal for me.

If only businesses were to realise that by and large not only does it
save them a fortune in expenisve office space and heating, but it saves
their employees massive amounts of time and money lost commuting.

Yes of course. We can make all the widgets we need to for export in
anyone's kitchen. And have the bits needed for them etc magiced up via the
internet.

As well as the nation huge amounts of wasted resources in transport
infrastructure and pollution.

This is the problem with you office types. No experience of the real world.

--
*Time is what keeps everything from happening at once.

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

In article ,
Jethro_uk writes:
On Thu, 01 Mar 2018 10:40:15 +0000, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

On 01/03/18 10:11, Andrew Gabriel wrote:
I'll bet many more people are working from home today, given the
weather, for those lucky enough to be able to do so.
I am, but that's normal for me.

If only businesses were to realise that by and large not only does it
save them a fortune in expenisve office space and heating, but it saves
their employees massive amounts of time and money lost commuting.

As well as the nation huge amounts of wasted resources in transport
infrastructure and pollution.

Yes, I learned that at Sun Microsystems. When I started (back in ISDN
days before ADSL), first thing my manager did was push me to get a
company ISDN line installed at home. I had temporarily moved to my
parents' place whilst looking to move somewhere nearer, so I sort of
delayed as I only expected to be there a month or two. No, they pushed,
didn't care about the 12 month min contract being wasted, etc.

Well, when I settled in, I realised why. The productivity you get from
a home worker, in this sector at least, is way higher. At that time,
the push was just in a few departments, but it became company policy,
and Sun saved millions by closing out office space. Sun had to get home
working right anyway - a comment Bill Joy had made (one of the founders)
was that if you want the best people in the world working for you, most
of them won't be anywhere near one of your offices, so you have to get
home working working well, or you prevent most of the best people in
the world from working for you.

A couple of jobs later, I took what I had learned there and applied it
to my team in a financial institution which had never considered remote
working before. It worked very well, and enabled me to get and retain
staff I would not have been able to do with office-only based work.

One of my "if they really cared" arguments.

We're going *backwards* by the way. Fewer roles in 2018 seem to allow
remote working than did in 2008.

I am aware of some companies pulling it back in. In those cases, the
companies are trying to shrink workforce, and it's used as a way to
get rid of workers without having to lay them off - insist they come
in to an office every day, when the nearest one is hundreds of miles
away, or not even in same country. Oracle and IBM have both done
this in recent years.

--
Andrew Gabriel
[email address is not usable -- followup in the newsgroup]

On 01/03/2018 11:40, Jethro_uk wrote:


We're going *backwards* by the way. Fewer roles in 2018 seem to allow
remote working than did in 2008.


That's because much of the work you could do from home has been exported
to other countries.

Its quite hard to do "do you want fries with that?" as a home worker.
I expect it will be about a decade before that is automated.

On Thu, 1 Mar 2018 14:39:31 +0000, dennis@home wrote:

Its quite hard to do "do you want fries with that?" as a home worker.
I expect it will be about a decade before that is automated.

You've not been in a Mucky D's recently? Big touch screens to place
your order on, or smaller ones at tables. Software programmed to do
the up selling. Payment taken by card. It's not a big step to have
delivery of the comestables to your table or take out pick up point
automated (big Lamson tubes?).

The *really* hard bit to automate is the cooking and assembly to
order,

--
Cheers
Dave.

On Thu, 01 Mar 2018 08:55:36 +0000, Andrew Gabriel wrote:

On the news just now...

Apparently gas consumption today would be 400M cubic metres, but there's
only 350M cubic metres available, so a gas deficit has been declared.
This means large industrial users will have their gas cut off for part
of the day.

The two contributory factors are 1/3rd extra usage today over normal due
to the weather, and two gas import docks broken down.

Centrica closed our North Sea gas storage last year, which held 9 weeks
supply of gas, due ot it being not commercially viable anymore. Gas spot
price currently 190p/therm.

The usual Gridwatch interest.

Coal going well, nuclear and wind going well, CCGT throttled back.

Hang on, OCGT kicking in? In the middle of a gas shortage? Counter
intuitive. Presumably they have a guaranteed supply?


Cheers


Dave R


--
AMD FX-6300 in GA-990X-Gaming SLI-CF running Windows 7 Pro x64

---
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus

On 01/03/18 10:36, David wrote:
On Thu, 01 Mar 2018 08:55:36 +0000, Andrew Gabriel wrote:

On the news just now...

Apparently gas consumption today would be 400M cubic metres, but there's
only 350M cubic metres available, so a gas deficit has been declared.
This means large industrial users will have their gas cut off for part
of the day.

The two contributory factors are 1/3rd extra usage today over normal due
to the weather, and two gas import docks broken down.

Centrica closed our North Sea gas storage last year, which held 9 weeks
supply of gas, due ot it being not commercially viable anymore. Gas spot
price currently 190p/therm.

The usual Gridwatch interest.

Coal going well, nuclear and wind going well, CCGT throttled back.

Hang on, OCGT kicking in? In the middle of a gas shortage? Counter
intuitive. Presumably they have a guaranteed supply?



Yup. Isn't it?

Guess the short term price is high enough to make it worthwhile

Cheers


Dave R




--
The lifetime of any political organisation is about three years before
its been subverted by the people it tried to warn you about.

Anon.

On 1 Mar 2018 10:36:06 GMT, David wrote:

Hang on, OCGT kicking in? In the middle of a gas shortage? Counter
intuitive. Presumably they have a guaranteed supply?

It's a sensible decision if you want to secure supplies to large population
areas when there is a risk of grid disturbance with high winds and conductor
icing.

--

Andrew Gabriel wrote:

Apparently gas consumption today would be 400M cubic metres, but
there's only 350M cubic metres available, so a gas deficit has been
declared.

I see the link the BBC had earlier has been removed

http://mip-prod-web.azurewebsites.net/PrevailingView/Index

This means large industrial users will have their gas cut
off for part of the day.

Actual supply dropped in the last hour, just when it was set to exceed
the forecast demand, have some taps been turned off?

http://mip-prod-web.azurewebsites.net/PrevailingViewGraph/ViewReport?prevailingViewGraph=ForecastGraph&gasDa te=2018-03-01

On 01/03/18 13:21, Andy Burns wrote:
Andrew Gabriel wrote:

Apparently gas consumption today would be 400M cubic metres, but
there's only 350M cubic metres available, so a gas deficit has been
declared.

I see the link the BBC had earlier has been removed

http://mip-prod-web.azurewebsites.net/PrevailingView/Index

This means large industrial users will have their gas cut
off for part of the day.

Actual supply dropped in the last hour, just when it was set to exceed
the forecast demand, have some taps been turned off?

http://mip-prod-web.azurewebsites.net/PrevailingViewGraph/ViewReport?prevailingViewGraph=ForecastGraph&gasDa te=2018-03-01

CCGT down a little bit as some solar cuts in. Also France is able to
export as well.

But this evenings peak will be crunch time...


--
"Corbyn talks about equality, justice, opportunity, health care, peace,
community, compassion, investment, security, housing...."
"What kind of person is not interested in those things?"

"Jeremy Corbyn?"

Yes well that was probably because it needed a lot of money spent on it to
make it suitable for the future and nobody wanted to pay it.
Brian

--
----- -
This newsgroup posting comes to you directly from...
The Sofa of Brian Gaff...

Blind user, so no pictures please!
"Andrew Gabriel" wrote in message
news
On the news just now...

Apparently gas consumption today would be 400M cubic metres, but
there's only 350M cubic metres available, so a gas deficit has been
declared. This means large industrial users will have their gas cut
off for part of the day.

The two contributory factors are 1/3rd extra usage today over normal
due to the weather, and two gas import docks broken down.

Centrica closed our North Sea gas storage last year, which held 9
weeks supply of gas, due ot it being not commercially viable
anymore. Gas spot price currently 190p/therm.

--
Andrew Gabriel
[email address is not usable -- followup in the newsgroup]

Brian Gaff wrote:

probably because it needed a lot of money spent on it to
make it suitable for the future and nobody wanted to pay it.

I thought someone was working on salt-caverns for storage (somewhere in
cheshire?) did that scheme die a death?