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Metalworking (rec.crafts.metalworking) Discuss various aspects of working with metal, such as machining, welding, metal joining, screwing, casting, hardening/tempering, blacksmithing/forging, spinning and hammer work, sheet metal work. |
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#1
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
The Sunday New York TImes has an article on the effectiveness of the
Bush and Obama stimulus programs. Read the article http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/13/bu...1&ref=business But it essentially says that Keynesian spending does not work as advertised. Which is pretty obvious as we passed a stimulus program to keep unemployment below 8 percent, and it did not do the job. And a recent study by the Romers indicates that tax cuts are about twice as effective as government spending in stimulating the economy. Since Christina Romer is the chairwoman of the president's Council of Economic Advisors, there is hope. The article ends with this statement. "A growing body of evidence suggests that the traditional Keynesian nostrums might not be the best medicine." Dan |
#2
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
On Sun, 13 Dec 2009 11:38:32 -0800 (PST), "
wrote: snip The article ends with this statement. "A growing body of evidence suggests that the traditional Keynesian nostrums might not be the best medicine." snip ========== This is highly likely, given that Keynes was describing the North American/North European economies of the 1930s, with limited tools [i.e. no computers] and restricted data. With the proliferation of the "brave new world order," Globalization, and deregulation as a secular religion, the phrase "things are different this time" appears for once to be accurate. However in fairness to Keynes, governmental deficit spending during the down/low part of the cycle on productive infrastructure improvements such as roads, ports, schools, etc. was only half of his prescription. The other half, which no government or politician seems to have ever implemented [or even considered], was the need for reductions in governmental spending during the up portion of the business cycle to avoid competing with private enterprise for limited resources, and the need to reduce/eliminate the debt incurred during the last down cycle spending, and as possible accumulate reserves for the next dip. This would also avoid the "ratchet" effect where government expands spending during the boom years and then attempts to maintain the same [excessive] spending levels during the down years, as well as reducing the capital available during the peak years thus [possibly] reducing the excesses/bubbles that normally occurred during this phase. What is crystal clear is that the fiscal/financial/economic/geopolitical reality has far outstripped the theoretical frameworks and models, and governmental policies and legal/regulatory frameworks [both in the US and abroad] are totally obsolete. In medical terms, the governmental administrators, regulators, functionaries and bureaucrats are attempting to treat HIV/AIDS with sulfa drugs and chicken soup ala 1932. When they discover this is not working, they simply apply more, as this is all they know they know how to do. Unka George (George McDuffee) ............................... The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there. L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author. The Go-Between, Prologue (1953). |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
It would be good to put the recent crisis in terms that describe it
adequately, instead of meaningless blabbering about "doctor and patient". We had insured banks, as well as entities that acted like banks, but were neither regulated, nor insured. Those entities, collectively, engaged in large amounts of bad lending that occurred during housing boom. Falling house prices, and loan losses, have made it questionable as to whether banks, as well as quasi-banks, would be able to pay back their depositors and counterparties. As a result of this sudden and rational realization, we have experienced a "panic", akin to the panics of 19th century. The worst case expectation was that the non-banks, and possibly even banks, will not be able to pay their depositors. Mass withdrawals ensued and activities of non-bank lenders, such as securitized loans, auction rate securities, etc ground to a halt. Without money to fund payrolls, and such, further loan losses would have fed this vicious circle, leading to a repeat of Great Depression. That was the public fear that drove stock prices down to Dow 6,500. The Fed and Treasury, at that point, went "all in" and said, effectively, that they will print as much money as possible to prevent this spiral from continuing. At that point, I believed them, personally, and was over 90% in stocks. The reason why I believed it is that it is not too hard to print money, and much easier than suffer from another Great Depression (which I think would be much worse than the original). It took a while for others to believe the Fed, with the result of the stock market being where it is, and stabilization of the credit markets, job market etc. In other words, we had a confidence problem (for good reasons). The objective of the Fed, which it achieved, was to restore the public confidence to the extent that lending is still being done and economic activity is still conducted, but at the lower level. The stimulus plan was a part of the same design to restore confidence, and to the extent that it was restored, it achieved its objectives. In other words, creating jobs was only one goal of stimulus, and restoring confidence that things will not fall indefinitely, was another. The question that I personally have, is whether attempts to reduce deficits would lead to recurrence of loan losses and panic, or not. In other words, I do not know whether the US financial authorities even have the option of reining in the deficits, without fallnig again into depression. Warren Buffett seems to think so (read his New York Times editorial), and I tend to believe him. However, if he is wrong, then effectively the only way out of the depression is by repudiation of public and private debts by means of inflation. The latter is why gold bugs are piling into gold. I am personally not one of them because gold is too popular. i |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
On Dec 14, 1:17*am, Ignoramus15449 ignoramus15...@NOSPAM.
15449.invalid wrote: It would be good to put the recent crisis in terms that describe it adequately, instead of meaningless blabbering about "doctor and patient". many true statements deleted The stimulus was to restore confidence but could have been done as reduction of taxes instead of increase in government spending. At least that is what the article is saying. The Obama economic team said that a dollar of tax cuts only increased GDP by 99 cents. But other studies show that a dollar of tax cuts increases GDP by $3 . And that increases in government spending decreases GDP. At least that is what I got from reading the article. Dan |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
On Sun, 13 Dec 2009 21:20:27 -0800, Hawke
wrote: snip I guarantee that Obama's economic advisors are telling him Keynsian economics will work. So take your pick, either believe what the Bush and republicans say we should do about our problems or believe what Obama and his advisors say we should do. snip ======== Better Keynesian stimulation than another war which has been the standard/preferred solution at least since the Romans. As King Henry IV advises his son Prince Hal" "By whose fell working I was first advanced And by whose power I well might lodge a fear To be again displaced: which to avoid, I cut them off; and had a purpose now To lead out many to the Holy Land, Lest rest and lying still might make them look Too near unto my state. ==Therefore, my Harry, Be it thy course to busy giddy minds With foreign quarrels; that action, hence borne out, May waste the memory of the former days.== King Henry IV, Part II ACT IV SCENE V Another chamber. Wm. Shakespear (1564-1616) Unka George (George McDuffee) ............................... The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there. L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author. The Go-Between, Prologue (1953). |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
On Dec 14, 5:20*am, Hawke wrote:
I guarantee that Obama's economic advisors are telling him Keynsian economics will work. ......................... Obama and his advisors say we should do. After seeing how the economy fared under Bush I don't see why anyone would pay any attention to their advice.. Hawke You did note that Christina Romer is the chairwoman of the president's Council of Economic Advisors. So while some of Obama's economic advisors say that Keynsian economics will work, at least one is saying that it is not the best way. One problem is that Obama needs to avoid looking like he is following Bushes policies even when it may be the best policy. Dan |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
Ed Huntress wrote:
"Hawke" wrote in message ... wrote: On Dec 14, 5:20 am, Hawke wrote: I guarantee that Obama's economic advisors are telling him Keynsian economics will work. ......................... Obama and his advisors say we should do. After seeing how the economy fared under Bush I don't see why anyone would pay any attention to their advice. Hawke You did note that Christina Romer is the chairwoman of the president's Council of Economic Advisors. So while some of Obama's economic advisors say that Keynsian economics will work, at least one is saying that it is not the best way. One problem is that Obama needs to avoid looking like he is following Bushes policies even when it may be the best policy. Dan I saw Romer on Meet the Press this weekend and have seen her numerous times on other shows as well. In no way does she advocate doing anything like what was done under Bush except for the bailout. Obama's economic team, led by Jared Bernstein, has virtually the opposite view from that of the Bush team. They believe they know what they are doing and that they have to spend money to get the country going again. You hear the opposite of that view from all the conservatives. But as I said, we tried the trickle down or supply side economics when Bush was president. We did things their way. It was a disaster. Obama is trying it differently and it will undoubtedly have a better outcome. What is funny is to hear the people who did the worst job in history running their mouths and saying things will be disastrous if we don't do things like they did them. Now that is nuts, but when you deny reality you do some really goofy things. Hawke The general idea is that you use pump-priming stimulus early in an economic downturn, and then, if taxes are too high, follow it up with tax cuts to business when the economy is producing positive growth. But cutting taxes won't work if no one is buying; businesses won't invest or hire until buyers show their heads. And unless taxes are well up on the Laffer curve, cutting taxes won't do a damned thing, anyway, except to make rich people richer. That's what Reagan's intention was, as his Budget Director, David Stockman, admitted later in the term. Read his interview in _Atlantic_ sometime. During Kennedy's term, taxes were much higher than they are today. Tax cuts then could help, once people started buying. They were much higher during Reagan's term, too. So I want to get around to Romer's paper soon, and see what she's saying. Sooner rather than later Ed. She didn't, for instance, either say or imply that tax cuts were a better solution to the problem at hand. You even know this. Are you turning into Tom V EH? -- John R. Carroll |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
"John R. Carroll" wrote in message ... Ed Huntress wrote: "Hawke" wrote in message ... wrote: On Dec 14, 5:20 am, Hawke wrote: I guarantee that Obama's economic advisors are telling him Keynsian economics will work. ......................... Obama and his advisors say we should do. After seeing how the economy fared under Bush I don't see why anyone would pay any attention to their advice. Hawke You did note that Christina Romer is the chairwoman of the president's Council of Economic Advisors. So while some of Obama's economic advisors say that Keynsian economics will work, at least one is saying that it is not the best way. One problem is that Obama needs to avoid looking like he is following Bushes policies even when it may be the best policy. Dan I saw Romer on Meet the Press this weekend and have seen her numerous times on other shows as well. In no way does she advocate doing anything like what was done under Bush except for the bailout. Obama's economic team, led by Jared Bernstein, has virtually the opposite view from that of the Bush team. They believe they know what they are doing and that they have to spend money to get the country going again. You hear the opposite of that view from all the conservatives. But as I said, we tried the trickle down or supply side economics when Bush was president. We did things their way. It was a disaster. Obama is trying it differently and it will undoubtedly have a better outcome. What is funny is to hear the people who did the worst job in history running their mouths and saying things will be disastrous if we don't do things like they did them. Now that is nuts, but when you deny reality you do some really goofy things. Hawke The general idea is that you use pump-priming stimulus early in an economic downturn, and then, if taxes are too high, follow it up with tax cuts to business when the economy is producing positive growth. But cutting taxes won't work if no one is buying; businesses won't invest or hire until buyers show their heads. And unless taxes are well up on the Laffer curve, cutting taxes won't do a damned thing, anyway, except to make rich people richer. That's what Reagan's intention was, as his Budget Director, David Stockman, admitted later in the term. Read his interview in _Atlantic_ sometime. During Kennedy's term, taxes were much higher than they are today. Tax cuts then could help, once people started buying. They were much higher during Reagan's term, too. So I want to get around to Romer's paper soon, and see what she's saying. Sooner rather than later Ed. She didn't, for instance, either say or imply that tax cuts were a better solution to the problem at hand. You even know this. Are you turning into Tom V EH? -- John R. Carroll Yes, I know that tax cuts have been debunked as an economic stimulus. The evidence is overwhelming. But I want to read Romer's paper and see what she's talking about before commenting about it. Unlike some folks who we know here, I usually read things before judging them. d8-) -- Ed Huntress |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
"Ed Huntress" wrote in message ... "Hawke" wrote in message ... wrote: On Dec 14, 5:20 am, Hawke wrote: I guarantee that Obama's economic advisors are telling him Keynsian economics will work. ......................... Obama and his advisors say we should do. After seeing how the economy fared under Bush I don't see why anyone would pay any attention to their advice. Hawke You did note that Christina Romer is the chairwoman of the president's Council of Economic Advisors. So while some of Obama's economic advisors say that Keynsian economics will work, at least one is saying that it is not the best way. One problem is that Obama needs to avoid looking like he is following Bushes policies even when it may be the best policy. Dan I saw Romer on Meet the Press this weekend and have seen her numerous times on other shows as well. In no way does she advocate doing anything like what was done under Bush except for the bailout. Obama's economic team, led by Jared Bernstein, has virtually the opposite view from that of the Bush team. They believe they know what they are doing and that they have to spend money to get the country going again. You hear the opposite of that view from all the conservatives. But as I said, we tried the trickle down or supply side economics when Bush was president. We did things their way. It was a disaster. Obama is trying it differently and it will undoubtedly have a better outcome. What is funny is to hear the people who did the worst job in history running their mouths and saying things will be disastrous if we don't do things like they did them. Now that is nuts, but when you deny reality you do some really goofy things. Hawke The general idea is that you use pump-priming stimulus early in an economic downturn, and then, if taxes are too high, follow it up with tax cuts to business when the economy is producing positive growth. But cutting taxes won't work if no one is buying; businesses won't invest or hire until buyers show their heads. And unless taxes are well up on the Laffer curve, cutting taxes won't do a damned thing, anyway, except to make rich people richer. That's what Reagan's intention was, as his Budget Director, David Stockman, admitted later in the term. Read his interview in _Atlantic_ sometime. During Kennedy's term, taxes were much higher than they are today. Tax cuts then could help, once people started buying. They were much higher during Reagan's term, too. So I want to get around to Romer's paper soon, and see what she's saying. -- Ed Huntress Overall the tax rate was lower during Reagan and even LBJ. By a bunch. The max income tax rate was higher, but there were lots of deductions. Deductions that have gone bye-bye. State and local sales tax, interest cost for any loan, No Medicare then. A lot lower SS tax rate and ceiling. |
#13
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
Ed Huntress wrote:
"John R. Carroll" wrote in message ... Ed Huntress wrote: "Hawke" wrote in message ... wrote: On Dec 14, 5:20 am, Hawke wrote: I guarantee that Obama's economic advisors are telling him Keynsian economics will work. ......................... Obama and his advisors say we should do. After seeing how the economy fared under Bush I don't see why anyone would pay any attention to their advice. Hawke You did note that Christina Romer is the chairwoman of the president's Council of Economic Advisors. So while some of Obama's economic advisors say that Keynsian economics will work, at least one is saying that it is not the best way. One problem is that Obama needs to avoid looking like he is following Bushes policies even when it may be the best policy. Dan I saw Romer on Meet the Press this weekend and have seen her numerous times on other shows as well. In no way does she advocate doing anything like what was done under Bush except for the bailout. Obama's economic team, led by Jared Bernstein, has virtually the opposite view from that of the Bush team. They believe they know what they are doing and that they have to spend money to get the country going again. You hear the opposite of that view from all the conservatives. But as I said, we tried the trickle down or supply side economics when Bush was president. We did things their way. It was a disaster. Obama is trying it differently and it will undoubtedly have a better outcome. What is funny is to hear the people who did the worst job in history running their mouths and saying things will be disastrous if we don't do things like they did them. Now that is nuts, but when you deny reality you do some really goofy things. Hawke The general idea is that you use pump-priming stimulus early in an economic downturn, and then, if taxes are too high, follow it up with tax cuts to business when the economy is producing positive growth. But cutting taxes won't work if no one is buying; businesses won't invest or hire until buyers show their heads. And unless taxes are well up on the Laffer curve, cutting taxes won't do a damned thing, anyway, except to make rich people richer. That's what Reagan's intention was, as his Budget Director, David Stockman, admitted later in the term. Read his interview in _Atlantic_ sometime. During Kennedy's term, taxes were much higher than they are today. Tax cuts then could help, once people started buying. They were much higher during Reagan's term, too. So I want to get around to Romer's paper soon, and see what she's saying. Sooner rather than later Ed. She didn't, for instance, either say or imply that tax cuts were a better solution to the problem at hand. You even know this. Are you turning into Tom V EH? -- John R. Carroll Yes, I know that tax cuts have been debunked as an economic stimulus. The evidence is overwhelming. But I want to read Romer's paper and see what she's talking about before commenting about it. Unlike some folks who we know here, I usually read things before judging them. d8-) OK, but what you will find is a discussion/analysis that says tax cuts do not lead to reductions in spending. What she was considering was the impact on tax cuts VS deficit spending on debt. She attributes the economic recovery from the Great Depression almost entirely to expansion of the money supply. -- John R. Carroll |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
"John R. Carroll" wrote in message ... Ed Huntress wrote: "John R. Carroll" wrote in message ... Ed Huntress wrote: "Hawke" wrote in message ... wrote: On Dec 14, 5:20 am, Hawke wrote: I guarantee that Obama's economic advisors are telling him Keynsian economics will work. ......................... Obama and his advisors say we should do. After seeing how the economy fared under Bush I don't see why anyone would pay any attention to their advice. Hawke You did note that Christina Romer is the chairwoman of the president's Council of Economic Advisors. So while some of Obama's economic advisors say that Keynsian economics will work, at least one is saying that it is not the best way. One problem is that Obama needs to avoid looking like he is following Bushes policies even when it may be the best policy. Dan I saw Romer on Meet the Press this weekend and have seen her numerous times on other shows as well. In no way does she advocate doing anything like what was done under Bush except for the bailout. Obama's economic team, led by Jared Bernstein, has virtually the opposite view from that of the Bush team. They believe they know what they are doing and that they have to spend money to get the country going again. You hear the opposite of that view from all the conservatives. But as I said, we tried the trickle down or supply side economics when Bush was president. We did things their way. It was a disaster. Obama is trying it differently and it will undoubtedly have a better outcome. What is funny is to hear the people who did the worst job in history running their mouths and saying things will be disastrous if we don't do things like they did them. Now that is nuts, but when you deny reality you do some really goofy things. Hawke The general idea is that you use pump-priming stimulus early in an economic downturn, and then, if taxes are too high, follow it up with tax cuts to business when the economy is producing positive growth. But cutting taxes won't work if no one is buying; businesses won't invest or hire until buyers show their heads. And unless taxes are well up on the Laffer curve, cutting taxes won't do a damned thing, anyway, except to make rich people richer. That's what Reagan's intention was, as his Budget Director, David Stockman, admitted later in the term. Read his interview in _Atlantic_ sometime. During Kennedy's term, taxes were much higher than they are today. Tax cuts then could help, once people started buying. They were much higher during Reagan's term, too. So I want to get around to Romer's paper soon, and see what she's saying. Sooner rather than later Ed. She didn't, for instance, either say or imply that tax cuts were a better solution to the problem at hand. You even know this. Are you turning into Tom V EH? -- John R. Carroll Yes, I know that tax cuts have been debunked as an economic stimulus. The evidence is overwhelming. But I want to read Romer's paper and see what she's talking about before commenting about it. Unlike some folks who we know here, I usually read things before judging them. d8-) OK, but what you will find is a discussion/analysis that says tax cuts do not lead to reductions in spending. What she was considering was the impact on tax cuts VS deficit spending on debt. She attributes the economic recovery from the Great Depression almost entirely to expansion of the money supply. -- John R. Carroll That sounds about right. I suspect the original post was b.s., but I'd like to take a look at it. -- Ed Huntress |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
Ed Huntress wrote:
"John R. Carroll" wrote in message ... Ed Huntress wrote: "John R. Carroll" wrote in message ... Ed Huntress wrote: "Hawke" wrote in message ... wrote: On Dec 14, 5:20 am, Hawke wrote: Yes, I know that tax cuts have been debunked as an economic stimulus. The evidence is overwhelming. But I want to read Romer's paper and see what she's talking about before commenting about it. Unlike some folks who we know here, I usually read things before judging them. d8-) OK, but what you will find is a discussion/analysis that says tax cuts do not lead to reductions in spending. What she was considering was the impact on tax cuts VS deficit spending on debt. She attributes the economic recovery from the Great Depression almost entirely to expansion of the money supply. That sounds about right. I suspect the original post was b.s., but I'd like to take a look at it. The Boehner bunch parsed her statements and eliminated the relevant context to jump up and down for bigger tax cuts and less spending when the initial stimulus bill was passed. Romer did all of the Sunday talk shows explaining herself. -- John R. Carroll |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
"John R. Carroll" wrote in message ... Ed Huntress wrote: "John R. Carroll" wrote in message ... Ed Huntress wrote: "John R. Carroll" wrote in message ... Ed Huntress wrote: "Hawke" wrote in message ... wrote: On Dec 14, 5:20 am, Hawke wrote: Yes, I know that tax cuts have been debunked as an economic stimulus. The evidence is overwhelming. But I want to read Romer's paper and see what she's talking about before commenting about it. Unlike some folks who we know here, I usually read things before judging them. d8-) OK, but what you will find is a discussion/analysis that says tax cuts do not lead to reductions in spending. What she was considering was the impact on tax cuts VS deficit spending on debt. She attributes the economic recovery from the Great Depression almost entirely to expansion of the money supply. That sounds about right. I suspect the original post was b.s., but I'd like to take a look at it. The Boehner bunch parsed her statements and eliminated the relevant context to jump up and down for bigger tax cuts and less spending when the initial stimulus bill was passed. Romer did all of the Sunday talk shows explaining herself. -- John R. Carroll Aha. No surprise. Krugman calls them "The Tax-Cut Zombies." I keep this paragraph around to remind me: "Since the 1970's, conservatives have used two theories to justify cutting taxes. One theory, supply-side economics, has always been hokum for the yokels. Conservative insiders adopted the supply-siders as mascots because they were useful to the cause, but never took them seriously. The insiders' theory - what we might call the true tax-cut theory - was memorably described by David Stockman, Ronald Reagan's budget director, as "starving the beast." Proponents of this theory argue that conservatives should seek tax cuts ... because ... budget deficits will lead to spending cuts that will eventually achieve their true aim: shrinking the government's role back to what it was under Calvin Coolidge." It's good to remind people that Krugman was on Reagan's Council of Economic Advisors, so he knows what actually happened there. And every child in America should have to read Stockman's interview, "The Education of David Stockman," before they're allowed to graduate from high school: http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/198112/david-stockman -- Ed Huntress |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
On Dec 16, 5:47*am, "Ed Huntress" wrote:
Yes, I know that tax cuts have been debunked as an economic stimulus. The evidence is overwhelming. But I want to read Romer's paper and see what she's talking about before commenting about it. Unlike some folks who we know here, I usually read things before judging them. d8-) -- Ed Huntress The major thing that stood out to me is that the Romers analysis was that the effect of a 1 tax increases corrolated to a 3% decrease in GDP. Now this could or could not mean that a 1 % decrease would lead to a 3 % increase in GDP. Very tempting to say it does, but that is not in the Romers analysis. I have not found or read the other studies mentioned. Dan |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
"CalifBill" wrote in message m... "Ed Huntress" wrote in message ... "Hawke" wrote in message ... wrote: On Dec 14, 5:20 am, Hawke wrote: I guarantee that Obama's economic advisors are telling him Keynsian economics will work. ......................... Obama and his advisors say we should do. After seeing how the economy fared under Bush I don't see why anyone would pay any attention to their advice. Hawke You did note that Christina Romer is the chairwoman of the president's Council of Economic Advisors. So while some of Obama's economic advisors say that Keynsian economics will work, at least one is saying that it is not the best way. One problem is that Obama needs to avoid looking like he is following Bushes policies even when it may be the best policy. Dan I saw Romer on Meet the Press this weekend and have seen her numerous times on other shows as well. In no way does she advocate doing anything like what was done under Bush except for the bailout. Obama's economic team, led by Jared Bernstein, has virtually the opposite view from that of the Bush team. They believe they know what they are doing and that they have to spend money to get the country going again. You hear the opposite of that view from all the conservatives. But as I said, we tried the trickle down or supply side economics when Bush was president. We did things their way. It was a disaster. Obama is trying it differently and it will undoubtedly have a better outcome. What is funny is to hear the people who did the worst job in history running their mouths and saying things will be disastrous if we don't do things like they did them. Now that is nuts, but when you deny reality you do some really goofy things. Hawke The general idea is that you use pump-priming stimulus early in an economic downturn, and then, if taxes are too high, follow it up with tax cuts to business when the economy is producing positive growth. But cutting taxes won't work if no one is buying; businesses won't invest or hire until buyers show their heads. And unless taxes are well up on the Laffer curve, cutting taxes won't do a damned thing, anyway, except to make rich people richer. That's what Reagan's intention was, as his Budget Director, David Stockman, admitted later in the term. Read his interview in _Atlantic_ sometime. During Kennedy's term, taxes were much higher than they are today. Tax cuts then could help, once people started buying. They were much higher during Reagan's term, too. So I want to get around to Romer's paper soon, and see what she's saying. -- Ed Huntress Overall the tax rate was lower during Reagan and even LBJ. By a bunch. The max income tax rate was higher, but there were lots of deductions. Deductions that have gone bye-bye. State and local sales tax, interest cost for any loan, No Medicare then. A lot lower SS tax rate and ceiling. You have some misconceptions there, Bill. First, the overall income tax rates hardly budged throughout the Reagan years. Second, the maximum income tax was LOWERED by Reagan, from 70% to 50% and then to 28%. Deductions went up and down throughout the various tax bills passed during Reagan's term, but, yes, overall they were reduced. As for Medicare, it's been around since 1965. Rates went UP during Reagan's term. Likewise, SS withholding went UP, not down. If you want to see the net effects, take a look at this report from the CBO. Note particularly Table 1A: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/53xx/doc5...es.htm#table1A -- Ed Huntress |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
wrote in message ... On Dec 16, 5:47 am, "Ed Huntress" wrote: Yes, I know that tax cuts have been debunked as an economic stimulus. The evidence is overwhelming. But I want to read Romer's paper and see what she's talking about before commenting about it. Unlike some folks who we know here, I usually read things before judging them. d8-) -- Ed Huntress The major thing that stood out to me is that the Romers analysis was that the effect of a 1 tax increases corrolated to a 3% decrease in GDP. Now this could or could not mean that a 1 % decrease would lead to a 3 % increase in GDP. Very tempting to say it does, but that is not in the Romers analysis. I have not found or read the other studies mentioned. I'll try to get to it after I write down the butter piecrust recipe. g -- Ed Huntress |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
"Ed Huntress" wrote in message ... "CalifBill" wrote in message m... "Ed Huntress" wrote in message ... "Hawke" wrote in message ... wrote: On Dec 14, 5:20 am, Hawke wrote: I guarantee that Obama's economic advisors are telling him Keynsian economics will work. ......................... Obama and his advisors say we should do. After seeing how the economy fared under Bush I don't see why anyone would pay any attention to their advice. Hawke You did note that Christina Romer is the chairwoman of the president's Council of Economic Advisors. So while some of Obama's economic advisors say that Keynsian economics will work, at least one is saying that it is not the best way. One problem is that Obama needs to avoid looking like he is following Bushes policies even when it may be the best policy. Dan I saw Romer on Meet the Press this weekend and have seen her numerous times on other shows as well. In no way does she advocate doing anything like what was done under Bush except for the bailout. Obama's economic team, led by Jared Bernstein, has virtually the opposite view from that of the Bush team. They believe they know what they are doing and that they have to spend money to get the country going again. You hear the opposite of that view from all the conservatives. But as I said, we tried the trickle down or supply side economics when Bush was president. We did things their way. It was a disaster. Obama is trying it differently and it will undoubtedly have a better outcome. What is funny is to hear the people who did the worst job in history running their mouths and saying things will be disastrous if we don't do things like they did them. Now that is nuts, but when you deny reality you do some really goofy things. Hawke The general idea is that you use pump-priming stimulus early in an economic downturn, and then, if taxes are too high, follow it up with tax cuts to business when the economy is producing positive growth. But cutting taxes won't work if no one is buying; businesses won't invest or hire until buyers show their heads. And unless taxes are well up on the Laffer curve, cutting taxes won't do a damned thing, anyway, except to make rich people richer. That's what Reagan's intention was, as his Budget Director, David Stockman, admitted later in the term. Read his interview in _Atlantic_ sometime. During Kennedy's term, taxes were much higher than they are today. Tax cuts then could help, once people started buying. They were much higher during Reagan's term, too. So I want to get around to Romer's paper soon, and see what she's saying. -- Ed Huntress Overall the tax rate was lower during Reagan and even LBJ. By a bunch. The max income tax rate was higher, but there were lots of deductions. Deductions that have gone bye-bye. State and local sales tax, interest cost for any loan, No Medicare then. A lot lower SS tax rate and ceiling. You have some misconceptions there, Bill. First, the overall income tax rates hardly budged throughout the Reagan years. Second, the maximum income tax was LOWERED by Reagan, from 70% to 50% and then to 28%. Deductions went up and down throughout the various tax bills passed during Reagan's term, but, yes, overall they were reduced. As for Medicare, it's been around since 1965. Rates went UP during Reagan's term. Likewise, SS withholding went UP, not down. If you want to see the net effects, take a look at this report from the CBO. Note particularly Table 1A: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/53xx/doc5...es.htm#table1A -- Ed Huntress As I stated. The tax effective tax rate was lower in LBJ time. Even though LBJ paid for part of the VN war by promising more SS benefits in the future and raising SS taxes then. The maximum tax rate was lowered from 70% to 50%. Big deal. Who paid 70%? You could deduct sales tax, interest on credit cards, casualty losses were more deductible, maybe more medical. Had great insurance and did not pay much for medical care. 1962 my SS tax was $330. That was the maximum you paid and the company matched. 1% of the first $3300 of income. About September we always looked at the raise in take home pay. Table 1A does not go back far enough. I read, but do not remember where, that the overall tax burden in 1953 was 22% of a families income. That was the total taxes. Sales, excise, income. Now it is closer to 43%. This depression is not going to turn around when the government is spending about $2.73 for every $1.00 takes in. California raised it's sales tax to 9.75% in most areas. Varies by 0.25%. That has driven people to shop online, or buy when out of state. I bought new tires for the truck in St. George, UT. Costco, same price as at home, but 4% less tax. On $800 adds up. How much do you think the state has actually gained in revenue from the higher taxes? This is not Democrat thing. The Republicans are as guilty of the overspending. |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
The general idea is that you use pump-priming stimulus early in an economic downturn, and then, if taxes are too high, follow it up with tax cuts to business when the economy is producing positive growth. But cutting taxes won't work if no one is buying; businesses won't invest or hire until buyers show their heads. And unless taxes are well up on the Laffer curve, cutting taxes won't do a damned thing, anyway, except to make rich people richer. That's what Reagan's intention was, as his Budget Director, David Stockman, admitted later in the term. Read his interview in _Atlantic_ sometime. During Kennedy's term, taxes were much higher than they are today. Tax cuts then could help, once people started buying. They were much higher during Reagan's term, too. So I want to get around to Romer's paper soon, and see what she's saying. Sooner rather than later Ed. She didn't, for instance, either say or imply that tax cuts were a better solution to the problem at hand. You even know this. Are you turning into Tom V EH? She did say that the amount of growth that comes from stimulus spending was somewhere over three dollars for every dollar spent. But tax cuts only provided a dollar and change for every tax dollar cut. From that I got where she was coming from Hawke |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
"Bill McKee" wrote in message news "Ed Huntress" wrote in message ... "CalifBill" wrote in message m... "Ed Huntress" wrote in message ... "Hawke" wrote in message ... wrote: On Dec 14, 5:20 am, Hawke wrote: I guarantee that Obama's economic advisors are telling him Keynsian economics will work. ......................... Obama and his advisors say we should do. After seeing how the economy fared under Bush I don't see why anyone would pay any attention to their advice. Hawke You did note that Christina Romer is the chairwoman of the president's Council of Economic Advisors. So while some of Obama's economic advisors say that Keynsian economics will work, at least one is saying that it is not the best way. One problem is that Obama needs to avoid looking like he is following Bushes policies even when it may be the best policy. Dan I saw Romer on Meet the Press this weekend and have seen her numerous times on other shows as well. In no way does she advocate doing anything like what was done under Bush except for the bailout. Obama's economic team, led by Jared Bernstein, has virtually the opposite view from that of the Bush team. They believe they know what they are doing and that they have to spend money to get the country going again. You hear the opposite of that view from all the conservatives. But as I said, we tried the trickle down or supply side economics when Bush was president. We did things their way. It was a disaster. Obama is trying it differently and it will undoubtedly have a better outcome. What is funny is to hear the people who did the worst job in history running their mouths and saying things will be disastrous if we don't do things like they did them. Now that is nuts, but when you deny reality you do some really goofy things. Hawke The general idea is that you use pump-priming stimulus early in an economic downturn, and then, if taxes are too high, follow it up with tax cuts to business when the economy is producing positive growth. But cutting taxes won't work if no one is buying; businesses won't invest or hire until buyers show their heads. And unless taxes are well up on the Laffer curve, cutting taxes won't do a damned thing, anyway, except to make rich people richer. That's what Reagan's intention was, as his Budget Director, David Stockman, admitted later in the term. Read his interview in _Atlantic_ sometime. During Kennedy's term, taxes were much higher than they are today. Tax cuts then could help, once people started buying. They were much higher during Reagan's term, too. So I want to get around to Romer's paper soon, and see what she's saying. -- Ed Huntress Overall the tax rate was lower during Reagan and even LBJ. By a bunch. The max income tax rate was higher, but there were lots of deductions. Deductions that have gone bye-bye. State and local sales tax, interest cost for any loan, No Medicare then. A lot lower SS tax rate and ceiling. You have some misconceptions there, Bill. First, the overall income tax rates hardly budged throughout the Reagan years. Second, the maximum income tax was LOWERED by Reagan, from 70% to 50% and then to 28%. Deductions went up and down throughout the various tax bills passed during Reagan's term, but, yes, overall they were reduced. As for Medicare, it's been around since 1965. Rates went UP during Reagan's term. Likewise, SS withholding went UP, not down. If you want to see the net effects, take a look at this report from the CBO. Note particularly Table 1A: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/53xx/doc5...es.htm#table1A -- Ed Huntress As I stated. The tax effective tax rate was lower in LBJ time. Well, you stated during LBJ's time *and* Reagan's time. Reagan is easy to check. LBJ is not, and I don't think it's very relevant, anyway. The impression that many people have is that Reagan greatly reduced taxes. As you can see from the CBO report, the effective tax rates, across the board, hardly moved during Reagan's term. There was a lot of smoke and wind, but they really didn't do squat. Some effective rates actually moved *up*. If you're looking at the total tax burden on the economy, the effect of Reagan's various tax bills was roughly zero. But if you look at what their plan was, see Stockman's comments. He was Reagan's budget director, and he says the basic idea was to cut taxes for the rich and let the money "trickle down" to everyone else. It was a redistribution -- to the wealthy. That fits with the theories that the Republicans were following from the mid-'60s until now. Even though LBJ paid for part of the VN war by promising more SS benefits in the future and raising SS taxes then. The maximum tax rate was lowered from 70% to 50%. Big deal. Who paid 70%? You could deduct sales tax, interest on credit cards, casualty losses were more deductible, maybe more medical. Pull together a summary like the one the CBO produced that began in 1979, and it will be interesting to look at. But Medicare was instituted during LBJ's time. They were trying to hide the cost of a war. A lot of taxes got jacked all around, and a simplistic view of it isn't going to help. Neither will anecdotes. g Had great insurance and did not pay much for medical care. 1962 my SS tax was $330. That was the maximum you paid and the company matched. 1% of the first $3300 of income. About September we always looked at the raise in take home pay. Table 1A does not go back far enough. I read, but do not remember where, that the overall tax burden in 1953 was 22% of a families income. That was the total taxes. Sales, excise, income. Now it is closer to 43%. This depression is not going to turn around when the government is spending about $2.73 for every $1.00 takes in. California raised it's sales tax to 9.75% in most areas. Varies by 0.25%. That has driven people to shop online, or buy when out of state. I bought new tires for the truck in St. George, UT. Costco, same price as at home, but 4% less tax. On $800 adds up. How much do you think the state has actually gained in revenue from the higher taxes? This is not Democrat thing. The Republicans are as guilty of the overspending. -- Ed Huntress |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
On Dec 17, 4:07*pm, "Ed Huntress" wrote:
The impression that many people have is that Reagan greatly reduced taxes. As you can see from the CBO report, the effective tax rates, across the board, hardly moved during Reagan's term. There was a lot of smoke and wind, but they really didn't do squat. Some effective rates actually moved *up*. If you're looking at the total tax burden on the economy, the effect of Reagan's various tax bills was roughly zero. Ed Huntress The total tax burden may have been the same, but there were a lot of changes that affected what one did. The deduction for interest other than mortgages went away for example. Another was lowering the cap gains tax, so people were more likely to sell and reinvest where the investment might be more needed and profitable. So in my opinion the changes reduced the distortions caused by loopholes ( not the best word, but conveys the idea ) in the tax code. So I think the changes were beneficial to growth, even though the total tax burden was the same. Now if the deduction for interest on mortgages had been eliminated, the housing bubble would have been smaller. Dan |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
wrote in message ... On Dec 17, 4:07 pm, "Ed Huntress" wrote: The impression that many people have is that Reagan greatly reduced taxes. As you can see from the CBO report, the effective tax rates, across the board, hardly moved during Reagan's term. There was a lot of smoke and wind, but they really didn't do squat. Some effective rates actually moved *up*. If you're looking at the total tax burden on the economy, the effect of Reagan's various tax bills was roughly zero. Ed Huntress The total tax burden may have been the same, but there were a lot of changes that affected what one did. The deduction for interest other than mortgages went away for example. Another was lowering the cap gains tax, so people were more likely to sell and reinvest where the investment might be more needed and profitable. So in my opinion the changes reduced the distortions caused by loopholes ( not the best word, but conveys the idea ) in the tax code. So I think the changes were beneficial to growth, even though the total tax burden was the same. Possibly. Again, impressions are one thing, and actual numbers are another. I'd need to see the numbers before commenting about it, and that's a big job. Now if the deduction for interest on mortgages had been eliminated, the housing bubble would have been smaller. Sure. Fewer people would own houses, for one thing. d8-) Housing and the housing bubble are tough issues. There's a very large economic benefit, and an even larger social benefit, to having people own their own homes. How that stacks up against the effect on housing inflation is another issue that would have to be explored in terms of actual numbers. As for the bubble, the dynamics really don't change by adding or subtracting interest deductions. What shifts is some combination of house prices and affordability. More people own houses, but there also is a shift toward higher prices. As always, we'd need the numbers rather than the philosophy to see what actually happened. -- Ed Huntress |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
Ed Huntress wrote:
wrote in message ... On Dec 17, 4:07 pm, "Ed Huntress" wrote: The impression that many people have is that Reagan greatly reduced taxes. As you can see from the CBO report, the effective tax rates, across the board, hardly moved during Reagan's term. There was a lot of smoke and wind, but they really didn't do squat. Some effective rates actually moved *up*. If you're looking at the total tax burden on the economy, the effect of Reagan's various tax bills was roughly zero. Ed Huntress The total tax burden may have been the same, but there were a lot of changes that affected what one did. The deduction for interest other than mortgages went away for example. Another was lowering the cap gains tax, so people were more likely to sell and reinvest where the investment might be more needed and profitable. So in my opinion the changes reduced the distortions caused by loopholes ( not the best word, but conveys the idea ) in the tax code. So I think the changes were beneficial to growth, even though the total tax burden was the same. Possibly. Again, impressions are one thing, and actual numbers are another. I'd need to see the numbers before commenting about it, and that's a big job. Now if the deduction for interest on mortgages had been eliminated, the housing bubble would have been smaller. Sure. Fewer people would own houses, for one thing. d8-) You'd think that wouldn't you, Ed. It is not, however, reflective of any reality I know of. IOW, it isn't true and the numbers back me up on this. Nearly 100 percent of the tax deduction for mortgage interest has lead to higher prices ( for everything ) in about the amount of that subsidy. -- John R. Carroll |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
"John R. Carroll" wrote in message ... Ed Huntress wrote: wrote in message ... On Dec 17, 4:07 pm, "Ed Huntress" wrote: The impression that many people have is that Reagan greatly reduced taxes. As you can see from the CBO report, the effective tax rates, across the board, hardly moved during Reagan's term. There was a lot of smoke and wind, but they really didn't do squat. Some effective rates actually moved *up*. If you're looking at the total tax burden on the economy, the effect of Reagan's various tax bills was roughly zero. Ed Huntress The total tax burden may have been the same, but there were a lot of changes that affected what one did. The deduction for interest other than mortgages went away for example. Another was lowering the cap gains tax, so people were more likely to sell and reinvest where the investment might be more needed and profitable. So in my opinion the changes reduced the distortions caused by loopholes ( not the best word, but conveys the idea ) in the tax code. So I think the changes were beneficial to growth, even though the total tax burden was the same. Possibly. Again, impressions are one thing, and actual numbers are another. I'd need to see the numbers before commenting about it, and that's a big job. Now if the deduction for interest on mortgages had been eliminated, the housing bubble would have been smaller. Sure. Fewer people would own houses, for one thing. d8-) You'd think that wouldn't you, Ed. I'm being slightly facetious but it's provable that sales of houses are *very* sensitive to tax rates, mortgage interest rates, and housing inflation. The best way to look at it is that people buy houses as soon as they can afford them, and they buy the most expensive houses they can afford. In the main. So tax deductions for mortgage interest is one small factor that influences sales rates. Unfortunately, houses, and real estate in general, have little to do with replacement costs. Prices are based on what people can afford and will buy. That's the real driver in residential housing sales numbers and prices. It is not, however, reflective of any reality I know of. IOW, it isn't true and the numbers back me up on this. Nearly 100 percent of the tax deduction for mortgage interest has lead to higher prices ( for everything ) in about the amount of that subsidy. I suspect that's close to being right. I also suspect there is a small residual benefit, in terms of numbers of houses sold, that can be isolated as being the result of tax deductions. Most of the gain gets eaten up by housing inflation, but a small residual remains. I think. g A problem with tax deductions for houses is that they're regressive -- most of the benefit accrues to people in the highest brackets. That's not where you want to pump up housing, because they're going to buy houses anyway. This is where you need a good econometrician who's handy with multivariate analysis. I'll ask my son when he graduates in June. d8-) -- Ed Huntress |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
On Thu, 17 Dec 2009 08:34:03 -0800 (PST), "
wrote: snip Another was lowering the cap gains tax, so people were more likely to sell and reinvest where the investment might be more needed and profitable. snip While this sounds good in theory, in reality all it did was fuel speculation and create bubbles in everything from the dot cons to commodities. It also provided the motivation to transfer wealth through sham transactions structured as "capital gains" that are taxed at lower rates than earned income, even if these severely distort the marketplace/economy, e.g. executive stock options. It is not at all clear why income derived by "capital gains" should be taxed at a lower rate than earned income, while classifying most "capital gains" as unearned income with a higher tax rate would seem to be logical and reasonable, with one of the very few exceptions being where an individual grows their own business or farm. FWIW -- unless the stock is an IPO, none of the "investment" in stocks provides a dime to the corporation to expand their plant or product line. The general rule is that if you want more of something subsidize it, and if you want less of something tax it. The current tax treatments appear to subsidize speculation and profiteering while discouraging productive, value added labor resulting in earned income. The same observation applies to cash savings accounts currently paying less than the rate of inflation with full tax effect on the interest earned. *HIGHER* capital gains tax rates than those applied to earned income would seem appropriate, especially if these are *MUCH* higher for short-term/flipped assets, e.g. less than 90 days. Unka George (George McDuffee) ............................... The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there. L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author. The Go-Between, Prologue (1953). |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
On Dec 17, 9:23*pm, F. George McDuffee gmcduf...@mcduffee-
associates.us wrote: snip While this sounds good in theory, in reality all it did was fuel speculation and create bubbles in everything from the dot cons to commodities. *It also provided the motivation to transfer wealth through *sham transactions structured as "capital gains" that are taxed at lower rates than earned income, even if these severely distort the marketplace/economy, e.g. executive stock options. It is not at all clear why income derived by "capital gains" should be taxed at a lower rate than earned income, while classifying most "capital gains" as unearned income with a higher tax rate would seem to be logical and reasonable, with one of the very few exceptions being where an individual grows their own business or farm. FWIW -- unless the stock is an IPO, none of the "investment" in stocks provides a dime to the corporation to expand their plant or product line. The general rule is that if you want more of something subsidize it, and if you want less of something tax it. *The current tax treatments appear to subsidize speculation and profiteering while discouraging productive, value added labor resulting in earned income. *The same observation applies to cash savings accounts currently paying less than the rate of inflation with full tax effect on the interest earned. *HIGHER* capital gains tax rates than those applied to earned income would seem appropriate, especially if these are *MUCH* higher for short-term/flipped assets, e.g. less than 90 days. Unka George *(George McDuffee) .............................. The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there. L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author. The Go-Between, Prologue (1953). I have to disagree with you here. If you hold something for a long time, inflation increases the number of dollars that you will get for it. But the actual value is liikely the same. Say I bought a ton of nickel twenty years ago. And now sold it. It is still just a ton of nickel. But inflation will mean I get maybe 4 times as much money for it. The dollars I get are only worth 25% of the dollars I paid. So I would be fine with normal income tax on capital gains as long as I could adjust for inflation. So there would be a difference between the tax you paid if you only held something for a year versus something you held for thirty years. Dan |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
Special for Ed and John (and anyone else that is trying to
understand what went wrong). A new study is out: This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff http://press.princeton.edu/titles/8973.html For a video clip about their study see http://www.pbs.org/newshour/business...rt-questi.html snip The authors dug through mountains of data on every financial crisis they could uncover back to the 1300s, hoping to uncover common elements. And uncover them they did: Rapid deregulation, bubbles in real estate, and an influx of foreign savings are often tell-tale signs of a financial crisis to come. snip ====== Available Amazon 19.97$US http://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Diff.../dp/0691142165 Unka George (George McDuffee) ............................... The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there. L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author. The Go-Between, Prologue (1953). |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
"F. George McDuffee" wrote in message ... Special for Ed and John (and anyone else that is trying to understand what went wrong). A new study is out: This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff http://press.princeton.edu/titles/8973.html For a video clip about their study see http://www.pbs.org/newshour/business...rt-questi.html snip The authors dug through mountains of data on every financial crisis they could uncover back to the 1300s, hoping to uncover common elements. And uncover them they did: Rapid deregulation, bubbles in real estate, and an influx of foreign savings are often tell-tale signs of a financial crisis to come. snip ====== Available Amazon 19.97$US http://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Diff.../dp/0691142165 Unka George (George McDuffee) .............................. The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there. L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author. The Go-Between, Prologue (1953). That looks like a very important book, George. I read Leonard's review a while back and I came to the conclusion that it's too wonkish for the time I have available these days. I need the Reader's Digest version. g But I hope we hear more about it. It ought to be important in policy circles. -- Ed Huntress |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
On Thu, 17 Dec 2009 19:40:22 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote: That looks like a very important book, George. I read Leonard's review a while back and I came to the conclusion that it's too wonkish for the time I have available these days. I need the Reader's Digest version. g ========== If you have a good internet connection watch http://www.booktv.org/Watch/11133/Th... l+Folly.aspx whole thing is about a hour and covers their major findings. Dr. Reinhart indicated they will be placing their data in the public domain and posting to the web. Unka George (George McDuffee) ............................... The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there. L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author. The Go-Between, Prologue (1953). |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
"F. George McDuffee" wrote in message ... On Thu, 17 Dec 2009 19:40:22 -0500, "Ed Huntress" wrote: That looks like a very important book, George. I read Leonard's review a while back and I came to the conclusion that it's too wonkish for the time I have available these days. I need the Reader's Digest version. g ========== If you have a good internet connection watch http://www.booktv.org/Watch/11133/Th... l+Folly.aspx whole thing is about a hour and covers their major findings. Dr. Reinhart indicated they will be placing their data in the public domain and posting to the web. Aha! Very good. I'll curl up with the netbook and watch that one. Thanks. -- Ed Huntress |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
wrote in message ... On Dec 17, 9:23 pm, F. George McDuffee gmcduf...@mcduffee- associates.us wrote: snip While this sounds good in theory, in reality all it did was fuel speculation and create bubbles in everything from the dot cons to commodities. It also provided the motivation to transfer wealth through sham transactions structured as "capital gains" that are taxed at lower rates than earned income, even if these severely distort the marketplace/economy, e.g. executive stock options. It is not at all clear why income derived by "capital gains" should be taxed at a lower rate than earned income, while classifying most "capital gains" as unearned income with a higher tax rate would seem to be logical and reasonable, with one of the very few exceptions being where an individual grows their own business or farm. FWIW -- unless the stock is an IPO, none of the "investment" in stocks provides a dime to the corporation to expand their plant or product line. The general rule is that if you want more of something subsidize it, and if you want less of something tax it. The current tax treatments appear to subsidize speculation and profiteering while discouraging productive, value added labor resulting in earned income. The same observation applies to cash savings accounts currently paying less than the rate of inflation with full tax effect on the interest earned. *HIGHER* capital gains tax rates than those applied to earned income would seem appropriate, especially if these are *MUCH* higher for short-term/flipped assets, e.g. less than 90 days. Unka George (George McDuffee) .............................. The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there. L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author. The Go-Between, Prologue (1953). I have to disagree with you here. If you hold something for a long time, inflation increases the number of dollars that you will get for it. But the actual value is liikely the same. Say I bought a ton of nickel twenty years ago. And now sold it. It is still just a ton of nickel. But inflation will mean I get maybe 4 times as much money for it. The dollars I get are only worth 25% of the dollars I paid. So I would be fine with normal income tax on capital gains as long as I could adjust for inflation. So there would be a difference between the tax you paid if you only held something for a year versus something you held for thirty years. Dan Reply: Gives an incentive to invest long term. Causes more jobs to be created as the money does not have to be turned over a lot to keep up with inflation. |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
On Thu, 17 Dec 2009 18:36:30 -0800, "Bill McKee"
wrote: wrote in message ... On Dec 17, 9:23 pm, F. George McDuffee gmcduf...@mcduffee- associates.us wrote: snip While this sounds good in theory, in reality all it did was fuel speculation and create bubbles in everything from the dot cons to commodities. It also provided the motivation to transfer wealth through sham transactions structured as "capital gains" that are taxed at lower rates than earned income, even if these severely distort the marketplace/economy, e.g. executive stock options. It is not at all clear why income derived by "capital gains" should be taxed at a lower rate than earned income, while classifying most "capital gains" as unearned income with a higher tax rate would seem to be logical and reasonable, with one of the very few exceptions being where an individual grows their own business or farm. FWIW -- unless the stock is an IPO, none of the "investment" in stocks provides a dime to the corporation to expand their plant or product line. The general rule is that if you want more of something subsidize it, and if you want less of something tax it. The current tax treatments appear to subsidize speculation and profiteering while discouraging productive, value added labor resulting in earned income. The same observation applies to cash savings accounts currently paying less than the rate of inflation with full tax effect on the interest earned. *HIGHER* capital gains tax rates than those applied to earned income would seem appropriate, especially if these are *MUCH* higher for short-term/flipped assets, e.g. less than 90 days. Unka George (George McDuffee) .............................. The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there. L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author. The Go-Between, Prologue (1953). I have to disagree with you here. If you hold something for a long time, inflation increases the number of dollars that you will get for it. But the actual value is liikely the same. Say I bought a ton of nickel twenty years ago. And now sold it. It is still just a ton of nickel. But inflation will mean I get maybe 4 times as much money for it. The dollars I get are only worth 25% of the dollars I paid. ==So I would be fine with normal income tax on capital gains as long as I could adjust for inflation.== So there would be a difference between the tax you paid if you only held something for a year versus something you held for thirty years. Dan Reply: Gives an incentive to invest long term. Causes more jobs to be created as the money does not have to be turned over a lot to keep up with inflation. ========== Sounds good to me. Also adjust the interest paid on savings for inflation. Well over 50% of the stock volume on the NYSE and possibly on others is now generated by computerized high volume, high frequency "flash" trading which is only a new "high tech," albeit currently legal way of broker "front running" which the SEC used to put people in jail for. In some cases these stocks are owned for milliseconds. This is an example where the capital "gains" rate should be [much] higher than the earned income rate. Unka George (George McDuffee) ............................... The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there. L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author. The Go-Between, Prologue (1953). |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
On Thu, 17 Dec 2009 21:10:31 -0600, F. George McDuffee
wrote: Well over 50% of the stock volume on the NYSE and possibly on others is now generated by computerized high volume, high frequency "flash" trading which is only a new "high tech," albeit currently legal way of broker "front running" which the SEC used to put people in jail for. In some cases these stocks are owned for milliseconds. This is an example where the capital "gains" rate should be [much] higher than the earned income rate. Unka George (George McDuffee) A 0.1% "transaction tax" would damp things down a little! Hypothecate it to fighting climate change and have all the world's markets apply it. Politically/nationally neutral and would probably be supported by 95% of the world's population. Mark Rand RTFM |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
On Dec 18, 3:10*am, F. George McDuffee gmcduf...@mcduffee-
Well over 50% of the stock volume on the NYSE and possibly on others is now generated by computerized high volume, high frequency "flash" trading which is only a new "high tech," albeit currently legal way of broker "front running" which the SEC used to put people in jail for. *In some cases these stocks are owned for milliseconds. *This is an example where the capital "gains" rate should be [much] higher than the earned income rate. Unka George *(George McDuffee) .............................. The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there. L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author. The Go-Between, Prologue (1953). You do realize that the tax on capital gains of things held for less than a year is the ordinary income tax or 35% whichever is less. So most anything held for milliseconds does not qualify for special tax treatment. Dan |
#38
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
On Fri, 18 Dec 2009 23:33:49 +0000, Mark Rand
wrote: On Thu, 17 Dec 2009 21:10:31 -0600, F. George McDuffee wrote: Well over 50% of the stock volume on the NYSE and possibly on others is now generated by computerized high volume, high frequency "flash" trading which is only a new "high tech," albeit currently legal way of broker "front running" which the SEC used to put people in jail for. In some cases these stocks are owned for milliseconds. This is an example where the capital "gains" rate should be [much] higher than the earned income rate. Unka George (George McDuffee) A 0.1% "transaction tax" would damp things down a little! Hypothecate it to fighting climate change and have all the world's markets apply it. Politically/nationally neutral and would probably be supported by 95% of the world's population. Mark Rand RTFM ========== Indeed!!! Technical name for this is a Tobin tax, originally proposed for currency exchange transactions when the fixed currency exchange rates were scrapped in the 70s. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tobin_tax This concept has been expanded to include all exchange financial transactions including stocks, bonds, derivatives, commodities, and other bets. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cf57a4a4-e...44feab49a.html http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...conomic-policy The mere mention of the words "Tobin Tax" makes the brokers, speculators, and arbitragers pee in their Armani suits all over the seats of their Porches, Ferraris, and BMWs. From their point of view, the imposition of a "Tobin Tax," even an incomplete and limited one, would mean the end of civilization, and quite possibly life, as they know it. The problem being that this will not only result in some of their profits going to the tax man, but even worse, it will expose many of the covert and hidden operations of the market whereby the retail/legitimate customers are hosed. A 0.10% [or even 0.25% or higher] transaction tax is so low that it will have minimal effect on legitimate transactions because these are rare, but will have a serious impact on profits generated by high volume high frequency trading [churning/front running] for speculation and momentary arbitrage. A Tobin tax also applies the time tested principal "to have more of something subsidize it, to have less of something tax it" to speculation and arbitrage. Look for a Tobin Tax to be imposed at about the same time the glaciers return in a new ice age. Unka George (George McDuffee) ............................... The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there. L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author. The Go-Between, Prologue (1953). |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
On Fri, 18 Dec 2009 15:57:25 -0800 (PST), "
wrote: On Dec 18, 3:10*am, F. George McDuffee gmcduf...@mcduffee- Well over 50% of the stock volume on the NYSE and possibly on others is now generated by computerized high volume, high frequency "flash" trading which is only a new "high tech," albeit currently legal way of broker "front running" which the SEC used to put people in jail for. *In some cases these stocks are owned for milliseconds. *This is an example where the capital "gains" rate should be [much] higher than the earned income rate. Unka George *(George McDuffee) .............................. The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there. L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author. The Go-Between, Prologue (1953). You do realize that the tax on capital gains of things held for less than a year is the ordinary income tax or 35% whichever is less. So most anything held for milliseconds does not qualify for special tax treatment. Dan =========== As the "Queen of Mean" [Leona Helmsley] observed "paying taxes is for little people." Under the normal accounting rules for mere mortals, this is correct, however there are exceptions such as the "carried interest" classification for hedge fund managers (and given today's regulatory authority, they may all be hedge fund managers). For professional traders, the nominal 35% tax is just a cap and the starting point for negotiation between their accountants and the IRS. All sorts of other things come into play such as "carry forward" tax losses. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carried_interest snip Because the manager is compensated with a profits interest in the fund, the bulk of its income from the fund is taxed, not as compensation for services, but as a return on investment. Typically, when a partner receives a profits interest (commonly referred to as a "carried interest"), the partner is not taxed upon receipt, due to the difficulty of ascertaining the present value of an interest in future profits.[2] Instead, the partner is taxed as the partnership earns income. In the case of a hedge fund, this means that the partner defers taxation on the income that the hedge fund earns, which is typically ordinary income (or possibly short-term capital gains), due to the nature of the investments most hedge funds make. Private equity funds, however, typically invest on a longer horizon, with the result that income earned by the funds is long-term capital gain, taxable to individuals at a maximum 15% rate. Because the 20% profits share typically is the bulk of the manager’s compensation, and because this compensation can reach, in the case of the most successful funds, enormous figures, concern has been raised, both in Congress and in the media, that managers are taking advantage of tax loopholes to receive what is effectively a salary without paying the ordinary 35% marginal income tax rates that an average person would have to pay on such income. snip http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/20...st-tax-change/ Examples of carry forward/back tax loss deductions/abuses http://biztaxlaw.about.com/od/glossa...rryforward.htm http://www.irs.gov/compliance/enforc...187267,00.html http://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPag...v=13&id=&page= There are many more dodges and loopholes [other than overt evasion]. Unka George (George McDuffee) ............................... The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there. L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author. The Go-Between, Prologue (1953). |
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Stimulating the economy, do not rely on Keynesian theory
Mark Rand wrote:
On Thu, 17 Dec 2009 21:10:31 -0600, F. George McDuffee wrote: Well over 50% of the stock volume on the NYSE and possibly on others is now generated by computerized high volume, high frequency "flash" trading which is only a new "high tech," albeit currently legal way of broker "front running" which the SEC used to put people in jail for. In some cases these stocks are owned for milliseconds. This is an example where the capital "gains" rate should be [much] higher than the earned income rate. Unka George (George McDuffee) A 0.1% "transaction tax" would damp things down a little! Hypothecate it to fighting climate change and have all the world's markets apply it. Politically/nationally neutral and would probably be supported by 95% of the world's population. Mark Rand RTFM None of you guys have ever run for office (much less been elected), have you? ANY elected official voting YEA on such a tax would lose his big campaign boosters - right quick. And the people making all this money? It's not about politics for them. It's about MONEY! They don't care what party the candidate represents. They don't give two cents for his (or her) politics. They make the same donation to BOTH candidates. (It's call buying access) Their only concern is, once elected, will this guy stay bought. (until the next election at least) |
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