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Default OT - Turkeys Voting for Christmas -- was The Lancet's Vaccine Retraction -- A medical journal's role in the autism scare

wrote:
On Fri, 5 Feb 2010 07:46:11 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:

wrote:
On Thu, 4 Feb 2010 12:40:56 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:

wrote:
On Thu, 4 Feb 2010 10:55:11 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:

wrote:


I saw one exec claim that there were something like 8 confirmed
defective parts (pedal pivots dragging or sticking) out of 2
million.

The Toyota brand has killed or injured more people in the last
decade wih this defect than every other maunfacturer combined.

That seems highly unlikely. Got any cites?

NPR here in LA had an hour on this last week.

SHAPIRO: What, specifically, is the committee looking at here?

LANGFITT: Well, they're asking for lots of documents. And what
they've said, is they want to know when Toyota and the National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration first learned about these
potential safety problems and what they did to investigate and try
to resolve them. Now the committee said this in a statement, I'm
kind of quoting here, our government figures show nearly twice as
many people died in Toyotas from sudden acceleration problems in
the last decade than in cars from all other automakers combined. So
thats another thing theyre really very interested in, is the number
and the volume and how many of those are Toyotas.

http://www.npr.mobi/templates/story/...ryId=123098947.

Well, there you go. The guy said he was "kind of quoting", and I
can't find anything to back up his recollection.


http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/defects/


J.R.C. (above): "The Toyota brand has killed or injured more people
in the last decade with this defect than every other manufacturer
combined."

By posting a link to the NHTSA site, are you trying to say that one
can find evidence of your assertion there?


You can get the testimony of any hearing, reports and a lot of other
information.

Then why not post the link
to that search, or at least the details of how you or Langfiit arrived
at your conclusion?


He attended the hearings as part of his job. That is why he was on the
show - to share his observations.
He's a responsible journalist with a good record and my experiance with his
reporting has indicated that he's truthful.

Why do you suppose that the LA Times, who
apparently mined the same data, didn't get the same results? And why
do you think that they used the very qualified phrase "related to
possible sudden acceleration", while you were able to be so
definitive?


I'd post the material, it's one ot the links on the page references, but
can't open the file on this computer.
I get a "corrupt file" message.
I know why that is an it's not the file, it's this box and the software
product combination running on it.
I'll publish it here when I'm able.
I'm working a project on the base at Pendleton and only have this box with
me.
I'm only posting at all through a VPN, something I learned to be sure and
set up after my first trip to Iraq.

--
John R. Carroll


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Default OT - Turkeys Voting for Christmas -- was The Lancet's Vaccine Retraction -- A medical journal's role in the autism scare

On Fri, 5 Feb 2010 12:51:47 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:

wrote:
On Fri, 5 Feb 2010 07:46:11 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:

wrote:
On Thu, 4 Feb 2010 12:40:56 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:

wrote:
On Thu, 4 Feb 2010 10:55:11 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:

wrote:


I saw one exec claim that there were something like 8 confirmed
defective parts (pedal pivots dragging or sticking) out of 2
million.

The Toyota brand has killed or injured more people in the last
decade wih this defect than every other maunfacturer combined.

That seems highly unlikely. Got any cites?

NPR here in LA had an hour on this last week.

SHAPIRO: What, specifically, is the committee looking at here?

LANGFITT: Well, they're asking for lots of documents. And what
they've said, is they want to know when Toyota and the National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration first learned about these
potential safety problems and what they did to investigate and try
to resolve them. Now the committee said this in a statement, I'm
kind of quoting here, our government figures show nearly twice as
many people died in Toyotas from sudden acceleration problems in
the last decade than in cars from all other automakers combined. So
thats another thing theyre really very interested in, is the number
and the volume and how many of those are Toyotas.

http://www.npr.mobi/templates/story/...ryId=123098947.

Well, there you go. The guy said he was "kind of quoting", and I
can't find anything to back up his recollection.

http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/defects/


J.R.C. (above): "The Toyota brand has killed or injured more people
in the last decade with this defect than every other manufacturer
combined."

By posting a link to the NHTSA site, are you trying to say that one
can find evidence of your assertion there?


You can get the testimony of any hearing, reports and a lot of other
information.


Sure. But the data needs to be mined, and I don't see how that mining
could ever support Lingfiit's claim. Obviously the Times felt the need
to qualify their conclusion, since there couldn't be NTSB-level
investigations of most of the accidents. And even if there had been,
those investigations could at best only point to possible
accelerator-issue involvement.

Then why not post the link
to that search, or at least the details of how you or Langfiit arrived
at your conclusion?


He attended the hearings as part of his job. That is why he was on the
show - to share his observations.
He's a responsible journalist with a good record and my experiance with his
reporting has indicated that he's truthful.


I don't doubt that, but his statement that he was "kind of quoting"
shouldn't count for much unless he or you can show the actual results
of the data mining.

Why do you suppose that the LA Times, who
apparently mined the same data, didn't get the same results? And why
do you think that they used the very qualified phrase "related to
possible sudden acceleration", while you were able to be so
definitive?


I'd post the material, it's one ot the links on the page references, but
can't open the file on this computer.
I get a "corrupt file" message.
I know why that is an it's not the file, it's this box and the software
product combination running on it.
I'll publish it here when I'm able.
I'm working a project on the base at Pendleton and only have this box with
me.
I'm only posting at all through a VPN, something I learned to be sure and
set up after my first trip to Iraq.


By now there's no question that the situation has been exaggerated,
and we're only at the beginning of what promises to be the mother of
all be-vewwwy-afraid hype bonanzas. I'm looking forward to seeing any
factual evidence you have in order to estimate how much exaggeration.
In the meantime, here are some previews of the types of issues that
will be generated. http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/cjm_18.htm
http://www.autosafety.org/audi-sudden-acceleration Last line of the
second article: "In closing the investigation, one factor NHTSA relied
upon was the fact that there had been three recalls and a service
campaign attempting to correct the human factors design errors;
87V-008, 87V-009, and 87V-170. None of these recalls eliminated sudden
acceleration in the Audi 5000." And it will be the same this time,
because when you have millions of vehicles, it's predictable that a
small percentage of their drivers will perform some interesting tricks
with them, and then try to blame the car. In fact, it would be a
miracle if there *weren't* hundreds of attempts to blame the car.

BTW, the initial reports of "possible medical issues" in the runaway
vehicle example I quoted yesterday have been revised.
http://www.kingmandailyminer.com/mai...icleID=3599 0
I mention that to point out how subjective these reports can be. And
check out the comments... there's already speculation about the
Pontiac Vibe being subject of the recall. I wonder what the driver's
defense will be based on? sigh

Wayne
  #85   Report Post  
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Default OT - Turkeys Voting for Christmas -- was The Lancet's Vaccine Retraction -- A medical journal's role in the autism scare

wrote:
On Fri, 5 Feb 2010 12:51:47 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:

wrote:
On Fri, 5 Feb 2010 07:46:11 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:

wrote:
On Thu, 4 Feb 2010 12:40:56 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:

wrote:
On Thu, 4 Feb 2010 10:55:11 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
wrote:

wrote:


I saw one exec claim that there were something like 8
confirmed defective parts (pedal pivots dragging or sticking)
out of 2 million.

The Toyota brand has killed or injured more people in the last
decade wih this defect than every other maunfacturer combined.

That seems highly unlikely. Got any cites?

NPR here in LA had an hour on this last week.

SHAPIRO: What, specifically, is the committee looking at here?

LANGFITT: Well, they're asking for lots of documents. And what
they've said, is they want to know when Toyota and the National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration first learned about these
potential safety problems and what they did to investigate and
try to resolve them. Now the committee said this in a statement,
I'm kind of quoting here, our government figures show nearly
twice as many people died in Toyotas from sudden acceleration
problems in the last decade than in cars from all other
automakers combined. So thats another thing theyre really very
interested in, is the number and the volume and how many of
those are Toyotas.

http://www.npr.mobi/templates/story/...ryId=123098947.

Well, there you go. The guy said he was "kind of quoting", and I
can't find anything to back up his recollection.

http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/defects/

J.R.C. (above): "The Toyota brand has killed or injured more people
in the last decade with this defect than every other manufacturer
combined."

By posting a link to the NHTSA site, are you trying to say that one
can find evidence of your assertion there?


You can get the testimony of any hearing, reports and a lot of other
information.


Sure. But the data needs to be mined, and I don't see how that mining
could ever support Lingfiit's claim.


It isn't either his claim or mine.
It's something that was given in testimony at the hearings he attended.
I should have poined that out in my original post.


--
John R. Carroll




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Posts: 87
Default OT - Turkeys Voting for Christmas -- was The Lancet's Vaccine Retraction -- A medical journal's role in the autism scare

On Fri, 5 Feb 2010 09:45:11 -0800 (PST), Too_Many_Tools wrote:
On Feb 5, 9:56*am, Frnak McKenney
wrote:
XMetal-Content: accelerator pedal, cable, wrecked Toyota

[...] Background of Toyota discussion snipped
I know that if I were a Toyota owner I'd want to know as early as
possible (a) if I were likely to be affected, (b) warning signs so
I could avoid the problem before it occurred, and (c) what to do if
the problem occurred anyway.

[...]
I'm not talking about a massive recall. *That might or might not
have been appropriate early on, depending on what Toyota knew about
the problem and when. I'm thinking of a simple letter --
illustrated with Charts'n'Diagrams -- describing:

[...]
Mailing such a letter -- and having the information broadcast
through the USDOT, state xxDOTs, and the media -- would (hopefully)
have two effects:

1) Demonstrate Toyota's concern with its customers (useful in any
possible upcoming lawsuits), and
2) Decrease the number of persons killed or injured.

[...]
I think it's time for another mug of tea.

Frank McKenney


Good comments.


Thanks, TMT. I appreciate the feedback.

I agree that more info needs to be presented to the user.

That will not happen...unless forced.

The more the company admits to the problem, the larger the
economic hit due to lawsuits.

So companies hide the bad news until it blows up in their face.


Sounds like the same kind of situation that so many politicians have
faced... and then tried to cover up. The "accepted wisdom" as
voiced by the media is that it's better to come clean early on and
then do one's best to "work past it", but I can understand why
that's hard for most people to do in practice.

"Going public" with a problem -- of any kind, to any audience -- is
long-term thinking, and long-term thinking requires some kind of
faith in the future. It requires a belief that dealing with the
consequences of one's screwup, however bad it might have been, are
_not_ the worst thing that could happen. For small screwups this is
easier, as the consequences are generally smaller; being able to
deal with the really big stuff requires believing in something
larger and more important than one's self.

The other problem is even if the info is out there, few people pay
attention and will respond properly during an unexpected event.


This is one place where I believe that directed communication can be
more effective than a simple "broadcast" of information. You want
(anyway, _I_ would want grin!) this mythical letter to be directed
specifically to the owners of any potentially affected Toyota
models/years, perhaps followed up by robot-calls to make sure the
letter was received.

Sure, follow up with a general announcement directed at the media,
but the key would be to directly address those likely to be
affected, rather than informing (harassing?) the general public.

Now, I admit that I'm speaking from a position rather distant from
the fray (and today, a somewhat snow-covered one grin!), since I
don't own a Toyota and I don't run the company. Still, I'd think
that owners would be more reassured by hearing about a problem first
in writing, from the manufacturer, and directed at them personally,
than they would be by hearing rumors from the media, politicians,
and bureaucrats. If the company missive gets there first, the
company might be seen as "screwing up but concerned"; otherwise,
they're "uncaring and had to be forced".

When you are dealing with a multi thousand pound missile driven by
the typical driver, the last problems you want are unexpected
acceleration or lack of deceleration.

TMT


Agreed. And you can't expect every driver to always be expertly
trained on handling vehicular emergencies and constantly aware of
every facet of driving: the road, the vehicle's behavior, other
vehicles (visible and not-yet-visible), passengers, pedestians,
falling trees, etc. By the same token, you cannot absolutely
guarantee that every potential design flaw in a vehicle is
identified and fixed before that vehicle hits the showroom.

It's a tough universe.


Frank
--
Never test the depth of the water with both feet.
--
Frank McKenney, McKenney Associates
Richmond, Virginia / (804) 320-4887
Munged E-mail: frank uscore mckenney ayut mined spring dawt cahm (y'all)
  #87   Report Post  
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Posts: 3,380
Default OT - Turkeys Voting for Christmas -- was The Lancet's VaccineRetraction -- A medical journal's role in the autism scare

On Feb 6, 10:39*am, Frnak McKenney
wrote:
On Fri, 5 Feb 2010 09:45:11 -0800 (PST), Too_Many_Tools wrote:
On Feb 5, 9:56*am, Frnak McKenney
wrote:
XMetal-Content: accelerator pedal, cable, wrecked Toyota


* *[...] Background of Toyota discussion snipped





I know that if I were a Toyota owner I'd want to know as early as
possible (a) if I were likely to be affected, (b) warning signs so
I could avoid the problem before it occurred, and (c) what to do if
the problem occurred anyway.

* *[...]
I'm not talking about a massive recall. *That might or might not
have been appropriate early on, depending on what Toyota knew about
the problem and when. I'm thinking of a simple letter --
illustrated with Charts'n'Diagrams -- describing:

* *[...]
Mailing such a letter -- and having the information broadcast
through the USDOT, state xxDOTs, and the media -- would (hopefully)
have two effects:


*1) Demonstrate Toyota's concern with its customers (useful in any
* * possible upcoming lawsuits), and
*2) Decrease the number of persons killed or injured.


* *[...]
I think it's time for another mug of tea.


Frank McKenney

Good comments.


Thanks, TMT. I appreciate the feedback.

I agree that more info needs to be presented to the user.


That will not happen...unless forced.


The more the company admits to the problem, the larger the
economic hit due to lawsuits.


So companies hide the bad news until it blows up in their face.


Sounds like the same kind of situation that so many politicians have
faced... *and then tried to cover up. *The "accepted wisdom" as
voiced by the media is that it's better to come clean early on and
then do one's best to "work past it", but I can understand why
that's hard for most people to do in practice.

"Going public" with a problem -- of any kind, to any audience -- is
long-term thinking, and long-term thinking requires some kind of
faith in the future. *It requires a belief that dealing with the
consequences of one's screwup, however bad it might have been, are
_not_ the worst thing that could happen. *For small screwups this is
easier, as the consequences are generally smaller; being able to
deal with the really big stuff requires believing in something
larger and more important than one's self.

The other problem is even if the info is out there, few people pay
attention and will respond properly during an unexpected event.


This is one place where I believe that directed communication can be
more effective than a simple "broadcast" of information. *You want
(anyway, _I_ would want grin!) this mythical letter to be directed
specifically to the owners of any potentially affected Toyota
models/years, perhaps followed up by robot-calls to make sure the
letter was received.

Sure, follow up with a general announcement directed at the media,
but the key would be to directly address those likely to be
affected, rather than informing (harassing?) the general public.

Now, I admit that I'm speaking from a position rather distant from
the fray (and today, a somewhat snow-covered one grin!), since I
don't own a Toyota and I don't run the company. *Still, I'd think
that owners would be more reassured by hearing about a problem first
in writing, from the manufacturer, and directed at them personally,
than they would be by hearing rumors from the media, politicians,
and bureaucrats. *If the company missive gets there first, the
company might be seen as "screwing up but concerned"; otherwise,
they're "uncaring and had to be forced".

When you are dealing with a multi thousand pound missile driven by
the typical driver, the last problems you want are unexpected
acceleration or lack of deceleration.


TMT


Agreed. *And you can't expect every driver to always be expertly
trained on handling vehicular emergencies and constantly aware of
every facet of driving: the road, the vehicle's behavior, other
vehicles (visible and not-yet-visible), passengers, pedestians,
falling trees, etc. *By the same token, you cannot absolutely
guarantee that every potential design flaw in a vehicle is
identified and fixed before that vehicle hits the showroom.

It's a tough universe.

Frank
--
* * Never test the depth of the water with both feet.
--
Frank McKenney, McKenney Associates
Richmond, Virginia / (804) 320-4887
Munged E-mail: frank uscore mckenney ayut mined spring dawt cahm (y'all)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -


Again good comments Frank.

It is unfortunate but it is quite apparent that Toyota has been riding
their reputation for some time while squashing complaints both
externally and internally.

They will pay dearly for it...as they should.

That is the price of not dealing problems when they are small and
easily dealt with.

Reminds me of the health care situation...

TMT

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