http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...301414842.html

Two quarters of consecutive growth: in Q3, followed by 5.5% GDP growth in Q4.
There are some who say that because a large part of it was due to
inventory adjustment, that adjustment should be "counted out", but it
is not true: inventories are increased in anticipation of greater
future sales.

I believe that this ends the 2008 recession officially.

But here's an interesting factoid:

Q3 inflation: 1.2%
Q4 inflation: 1.4%
Interest rates: close to 0%

Guess what this portends for interest rates.

If I did not refinance last summer for 30 years @4.875%, I would be
refinancing now (5.22% on average last week).

I do expect that we will collectively become poorer (more exactly, our
actual wealth as a nation will not change or will grow, but the number
value placed on our wealth will become less), but that will occur
through inflation, as opposed to deflation. This is my personal
expectation that may prove wrong.

i

"Ignoramus7752" wrote in message
...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...301414842.html

Two quarters of consecutive growth: in Q3, followed by 5.5% GDP growth in
Q4.
There are some who say that because a large part of it was due to
inventory adjustment, that adjustment should be "counted out", but it
is not true: inventories are increased in anticipation of greater
future sales.

I believe that this ends the 2008 recession officially.

But here's an interesting factoid:

Q3 inflation: 1.2%
Q4 inflation: 1.4%
Interest rates: close to 0%

Guess what this portends for interest rates.

If I did not refinance last summer for 30 years @4.875%, I would be
refinancing now (5.22% on average last week).

I do expect that we will collectively become poorer (more exactly, our
actual wealth as a nation will not change or will grow, but the number
value placed on our wealth will become less), but that will occur
through inflation, as opposed to deflation. This is my personal
expectation that may prove wrong.

i

At this time, after so many years of low inflation and low interest rates,
and now with some real GDP growth, I'm having a hard time figuring out how
you translate that pattern into one of getting poorer through inflation.

What is it that you see happening?

--
Ed Huntress

On Jan 29, 2:03*pm, Ignoramus7752
wrote:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...57503289330141...

Two quarters of consecutive growth: in Q3, followed by 5.5% GDP growth in Q4.
There are some who say that because a large part of it was due to
inventory adjustment, that adjustment should be "counted out", but it
is not true: inventories are increased in anticipation of greater
future sales.

I believe that this ends the 2008 recession officially.

But here's an interesting factoid:

Q3 inflation: 1.2%
Q4 inflation: 1.4%
Interest rates: close to 0%

Guess what this portends for interest rates.

If I did not refinance last summer for 30 years @4.875%, I would be
refinancing now (5.22% on average last week).

I do expect that we will collectively become poorer (more exactly, our
actual wealth as a nation will not change or will grow, but the number
value placed on our wealth will become less), but that will occur
through inflation, as opposed to deflation. This is my personal
expectation that may prove wrong.

i
Inventories being increased are a result of many more market pressures
than anticipation of future sales. Currently many things a company
buys are only available in larger lots. Before the recession,
components and material could be purchased as needed, in smaller
quantities. Remember "just in time" inventory control. That isn't
working anymore.

My electronic assembly company now has to buy reels of 1000 components
if we want even one component. A year ago we could buy 100 or 200
crystals to build a circuit board for a customer. Recently, we had to
buy an entire reel of 1000 and had to get ones made with leaded solder
when we really wanted 100 with lead-free solder. We bought the last
reel available anywhere. The correct crystals won't be available until
June. The customer can't wait till June/July.

Last year we had to buy 2000 hand held push button switches with a
custom plastic housing in order to get the 300 we needed for a custom
product build. Since I don't do the purchasing and only hear about the
horror stories, I am sure there are many more components that the
minimum purchase quantity has gone out of sight.

I am sure the same problem is present in all types of manufacturing.
So, do not put much weight in the increased inventory figures.

Paul

" wrote:

On Jan 29, 2:03 pm, Ignoramus7752
wrote:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...57503289330141...

Two quarters of consecutive growth: in Q3, followed by 5.5% GDP growth in Q4.
There are some who say that because a large part of it was due to
inventory adjustment, that adjustment should be "counted out", but it
is not true: inventories are increased in anticipation of greater
future sales.

I believe that this ends the 2008 recession officially.

But here's an interesting factoid:

Q3 inflation: 1.2%
Q4 inflation: 1.4%
Interest rates: close to 0%

Guess what this portends for interest rates.

If I did not refinance last summer for 30 years @4.875%, I would be
refinancing now (5.22% on average last week).

I do expect that we will collectively become poorer (more exactly, our
actual wealth as a nation will not change or will grow, but the number
value placed on our wealth will become less), but that will occur
through inflation, as opposed to deflation. This is my personal
expectation that may prove wrong.

i
Inventories being increased are a result of many more market pressures
than anticipation of future sales. Currently many things a company
buys are only available in larger lots. Before the recession,
components and material could be purchased as needed, in smaller
quantities. Remember "just in time" inventory control. That isn't
working anymore.

My electronic assembly company now has to buy reels of 1000 components
if we want even one component. A year ago we could buy 100 or 200
crystals to build a circuit board for a customer. Recently, we had to
buy an entire reel of 1000 and had to get ones made with leaded solder
when we really wanted 100 with lead-free solder. We bought the last
reel available anywhere. The correct crystals won't be available until
June. The customer can't wait till June/July.


You ever heard of Mini-Reel?


Last year we had to buy 2000 hand held push button switches with a
custom plastic housing in order to get the 300 we needed for a custom
product build. Since I don't do the purchasing and only hear about the
horror stories, I am sure there are many more components that the
minimum purchase quantity has gone out of sight.

I am sure the same problem is present in all types of manufacturing.
So, do not put much weight in the increased inventory figures.

Paul


--
Greed is the root of all eBay.

On Jan 30, 7:08*am, "Michael A. Terrell"
wrote:
" wrote:

On Jan 29, 2:03 pm, Ignoramus7752
wrote:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...57503289330141....

Two quarters of consecutive growth: in Q3, followed by 5.5% GDP growth in Q4.
There are some who say that because a large part of it was due to
inventory adjustment, that adjustment should be "counted out", but it
is not true: inventories are increased in anticipation of greater
future sales.

I believe that this ends the 2008 recession officially.

But here's an interesting factoid:

Q3 inflation: 1.2%
Q4 inflation: 1.4%
Interest rates: close to 0%

Guess what this portends for interest rates.

If I did not refinance last summer for 30 years @4.875%, I would be
refinancing now (5.22% on average last week).

I do expect that we will collectively become poorer (more exactly, our
actual wealth as a nation will not change or will grow, but the number
value placed on our wealth will become less), but that will occur
through inflation, as opposed to deflation. This is my personal
expectation that may prove wrong.

i
Inventories being increased are a result of many more market pressures
than anticipation of future sales. Currently many things a company
buys are only available in larger lots. Before the recession,
components and material could be purchased as needed, in smaller
quantities. Remember "just in time" inventory control. That isn't
working anymore.

My electronic assembly company now has to buy reels of 1000 components
if we want even one component. A year ago we could buy 100 or 200
crystals to build a circuit board for a customer. Recently, we had to
buy an entire reel of 1000 and had to get ones made with leaded solder
when we really wanted 100 with lead-free solder. We bought the last
reel available anywhere. The correct crystals won't be available until
June. The customer can't wait till June/July.

* *You ever heard of Mini-Reel?

Last year we had to buy 2000 hand held push button switches with a
custom plastic housing in order to get the 300 we needed for a custom
product build. Since I don't do the purchasing and only hear about the
horror stories, I am sure there are many more components that the
minimum purchase quantity has gone out of sight.

I am sure the same problem is present in all types of manufacturing.
So, do not put much weight in the increased inventory figures.

Paul

--
Greed is the root of all eBay.

Of course. Use them quite often. In a lot of cases, they are not
available. Mini-reels are a result of someone paying for re-reeling
components so they can buy a smaller quantity. Not cost effective in
the case of the crystals, and the distributor wouldn't do it because
they would probably be left holding the remainder for ever. We will
eventually use all the crystals, but may take a few years!.

By the way, did you ever live in the Portland, Oregon area and have a
brother Patrick?

Paul

" wrote:

Of course. Use them quite often. In a lot of cases, they are not
available. Mini-reels are a result of someone paying for re-reeling
components so they can buy a smaller quantity. Not cost effective in
the case of the crystals, and the distributor wouldn't do it because
they would probably be left holding the remainder for ever. We will
eventually use all the crystals, but may take a few years!.


What frequency? The company should put up a list of excess inventory
in case someone else needs a couple hundred. R. L. Drake used to do
this, till they liquidated their older inventory.


For a while there were a lot of partial reels on Ebay. I haven't
even looked in about two years. I lost the use of my good eye in 2008
for most of the year due to Bell's Palsy and I don't bother to look,
anymore.


By the way, did you ever live in the Portland, Oregon area and have a
brother Patrick?


No, I've never been to Oregon . Mostly the midwest and southeast. I
did land in california twice, but was only there about 18 hours while on
my way to and from Alaska


--
Greed is the root of all eBay.

On Jan 30, 9:46*am, "Michael A. Terrell"
wrote:
" wrote:

Of course. Use them quite often. In a lot of cases, they are not
available. Mini-reels are a result of someone paying for re-reeling
components so they can buy a smaller quantity. Not cost effective in
the case of the crystals, and the distributor wouldn't do it because
they would probably be left holding the remainder for ever. We will
eventually use all the crystals, but may take a few years!.

* *What frequency? *The company should put up a list of excess inventory
in case someone else needs a couple hundred. R. L. Drake used to do
this, till they liquidated their older inventory.

* *For a while there were a lot of partial reels on Ebay. *I haven't
even looked in about two years. *I lost the use of my good eye in 2008
for most of the year due to Bell's Palsy and I don't bother to look,
anymore.

By the way, did you ever live in the Portland, Oregon area and have a
brother Patrick?

* *No, I've never been to Oregon . Mostly the midwest and southeast.. I
did land in california twice, but was only there about 18 hours while on
my way to and from Alaska

--
Greed is the root of all eBay.

The reason I asked is back in the 1970's there were two brothers,
Michael and Patrick Terrell who opened a micro-computer store in
Portland. The name was "The Byte Shop". I visited regularly and
sometimes even bought something. I think that was the first real
computer store in Oregon, perhaps elsewhere. They lasted a couple of
years.

A few years ago, my son went to work as a salesman for a company owned
by one of the brothers, I forget which. I think the economy also took
that company down.

My company only purchases material from existing distributors. This is
in case of a problem the material stream can be traced back to the
source. This has proved it's worth several times. As an electronic
assembly service, we buy material from whomever the customer
specifies. Mostly from Digi-Key, Mouser, some smaller distributors and
some directly from a factory.

Paul

" wrote:

On Jan 30, 9:46 am, "Michael A. Terrell"
wrote:
" wrote:

Of course. Use them quite often. In a lot of cases, they are not
available. Mini-reels are a result of someone paying for re-reeling
components so they can buy a smaller quantity. Not cost effective in
the case of the crystals, and the distributor wouldn't do it because
they would probably be left holding the remainder for ever. We will
eventually use all the crystals, but may take a few years!.

What frequency? The company should put up a list of excess inventory
in case someone else needs a couple hundred. R. L. Drake used to do
this, till they liquidated their older inventory.

For a while there were a lot of partial reels on Ebay. I haven't
even looked in about two years. I lost the use of my good eye in 2008
for most of the year due to Bell's Palsy and I don't bother to look,
anymore.

By the way, did you ever live in the Portland, Oregon area and have a
brother Patrick?

No, I've never been to Oregon . Mostly the midwest and southeast. I
did land in california twice, but was only there about 18 hours while on
my way to and from Alaska

--
Greed is the root of all eBay.

The reason I asked is back in the 1970's there were two brothers,
Michael and Patrick Terrell who opened a micro-computer store in
Portland. The name was "The Byte Shop". I visited regularly and
sometimes even bought something. I think that was the first real
computer store in Oregon, perhaps elsewhere. They lasted a couple of
years.


I had a commercial sound & industrial electronics business in Ohio in
the '70s & 80s, and a computer business in Florida in the '90s.


A few years ago, my son went to work as a salesman for a company owned
by one of the brothers, I forget which. I think the economy also took
that company down.

My company only purchases material from existing distributors. This is
in case of a problem the material stream can be traced back to the
source. This has proved it's worth several times. As an electronic
assembly service, we buy material from whomever the customer
specifies. Mostly from Digi-Key, Mouser, some smaller distributors and
some directly from a factory.


I worked for Microdyne in Ocala for four years. We did our on board
stuffing since there were so many variations on the base designs. I
know what you mean about buying from known vendors. My official title
was 'production test tech' but the only places I didn't work was
accounting and HR. I qualified new parts, and removed some vendors from
our Approved Vendor List. One was Beckman, and a series of problems with
their surface mount pots. They were replaced with Bourns, and the
failure rate dropped to zero. I also wrote test procedures, and took
our biggest product design from engineering to full production. The
worst was maintaining software that was never finished, for a test
fixture that was not fully documented.


--
Greed is the root of all eBay.

On Jan 30, 10:55*am, "Michael A. Terrell"
wrote:
" wrote:

On Jan 30, 9:46 am, "Michael A. Terrell"
wrote:
" wrote:

Of course. Use them quite often. In a lot of cases, they are not
available. Mini-reels are a result of someone paying for re-reeling
components so they can buy a smaller quantity. Not cost effective in
the case of the crystals, and the distributor wouldn't do it because
they would probably be left holding the remainder for ever. We will
eventually use all the crystals, but may take a few years!.

* *What frequency? *The company should put up a list of excess inventory
in case someone else needs a couple hundred. R. L. Drake used to do
this, till they liquidated their older inventory.

* *For a while there were a lot of partial reels on Ebay. *I haven't
even looked in about two years. *I lost the use of my good eye in 2008
for most of the year due to Bell's Palsy and I don't bother to look,
anymore.

By the way, did you ever live in the Portland, Oregon area and have a
brother Patrick?

* *No, I've never been to Oregon . Mostly the midwest and southeast. I
did land in california twice, but was only there about 18 hours while on
my way to and from Alaska

--
Greed is the root of all eBay.

The reason I asked is back in the 1970's there were two brothers,
Michael and Patrick Terrell who opened a micro-computer store in
Portland. The name was "The Byte Shop". I visited regularly and
sometimes even bought something. I think that was the first real
computer store in Oregon, perhaps elsewhere. They lasted a couple of
years.

* *I had a commercial sound & industrial electronics business in Ohio in
the '70s & 80s, and a computer business in Florida in the '90s.

A few years ago, my son went to work as a salesman for a company owned
by one of the brothers, I forget which. I think the economy also took
that company down.

My company only purchases material from existing distributors. This is
in case of a problem the material stream can be traced back to the
source. This has proved it's worth several times. As an electronic
assembly service, we buy material from whomever the customer
specifies. Mostly from Digi-Key, Mouser, some smaller distributors and
some directly from a factory.

* *I worked for Microdyne in Ocala for four years. *We did our on board
stuffing since there were so many variations on the base designs. *I
know what you mean about buying from known vendors. My official title
was 'production test tech' but the only places I didn't work was
accounting and HR. *I qualified new parts, and removed some vendors from
our Approved Vendor List. One was Beckman, and a series of problems with
their surface mount pots. *They were replaced with Bourns, and the
failure rate dropped to zero. *I also wrote test procedures, and took
our biggest product design from engineering to full production. *The
worst was maintaining software that was never finished, for a test
fixture that was not fully documented. :

--
Greed is the root of all eBay.

I retired from 34 years in programming and data communications. Then
bought into a small electronic assembly service. That will be 10 years
ago next month.

Since this is a metal working news group, I will tell you about one
product we build for a customer that entails some metal working.

We build a small number of humidity sensor units for a company in
Portland. They do the final testing and calibration. The box uses an
external humidity sensor with internal electronics on a printed
circuit board. We purchase the external sensor from a company in
Finland for about $95 per. The sensor is in a machined brass housing
that included shielding for three pins that go to a custom connector.
The box does not have room for a connector, so the design engineer
used "dikes", still a good work, even if not PC, to trim away the
brass surround and gain access to the pins. Wires from the circuit
board are soldered to the pins.

At $95 per sensor, we were not about to use dikes to trim the brass.
The brass tube fits nicely into a collet in the little Prazi lathe we
have at work. We use a 0.060 piece of metal to set the lathe tool away
from a shoulder on the sensor and trim the brass away from the pins.
Leaves a much nicer looking product. My general manager now does the
setup and cutting.

There, metal content!

Paul

" wrote:

On Jan 30, 10:55 am, "Michael A. Terrell"
wrote:
" wrote:

On Jan 30, 9:46 am, "Michael A. Terrell"
wrote:
" wrote:

Of course. Use them quite often. In a lot of cases, they are not
available. Mini-reels are a result of someone paying for re-reeling
components so they can buy a smaller quantity. Not cost effective in
the case of the crystals, and the distributor wouldn't do it because
they would probably be left holding the remainder for ever. We will
eventually use all the crystals, but may take a few years!.

What frequency? The company should put up a list of excess inventory
in case someone else needs a couple hundred. R. L. Drake used to do
this, till they liquidated their older inventory.

For a while there were a lot of partial reels on Ebay. I haven't
even looked in about two years. I lost the use of my good eye in 2008
for most of the year due to Bell's Palsy and I don't bother to look,
anymore.

By the way, did you ever live in the Portland, Oregon area and have a
brother Patrick?

No, I've never been to Oregon . Mostly the midwest and southeast. I
did land in california twice, but was only there about 18 hours while on
my way to and from Alaska

--
Greed is the root of all eBay.

The reason I asked is back in the 1970's there were two brothers,
Michael and Patrick Terrell who opened a micro-computer store in
Portland. The name was "The Byte Shop". I visited regularly and
sometimes even bought something. I think that was the first real
computer store in Oregon, perhaps elsewhere. They lasted a couple of
years.

I had a commercial sound & industrial electronics business in Ohio in
the '70s & 80s, and a computer business in Florida in the '90s.

A few years ago, my son went to work as a salesman for a company owned
by one of the brothers, I forget which. I think the economy also took
that company down.

My company only purchases material from existing distributors. This is
in case of a problem the material stream can be traced back to the
source. This has proved it's worth several times. As an electronic
assembly service, we buy material from whomever the customer
specifies. Mostly from Digi-Key, Mouser, some smaller distributors and
some directly from a factory.

I worked for Microdyne in Ocala for four years. We did our on board
stuffing since there were so many variations on the base designs. I
know what you mean about buying from known vendors. My official title
was 'production test tech' but the only places I didn't work was
accounting and HR. I qualified new parts, and removed some vendors from
our Approved Vendor List. One was Beckman, and a series of problems with
their surface mount pots. They were replaced with Bourns, and the
failure rate dropped to zero. I also wrote test procedures, and took
our biggest product design from engineering to full production. The
worst was maintaining software that was never finished, for a test
fixture that was not fully documented. :

--
Greed is the root of all eBay.

I retired from 34 years in programming and data communications. Then
bought into a small electronic assembly service. That will be 10 years
ago next month.


I worked in two way radio, broadcast, and my last RF job was building
Telemetry equipment for the aerospace industry. The only metalworking I
did there was building test fixtures. I was involved in improving our
reflow soldering process as they moved from 1206 to 0805 and smaller
components. That included getting a new Heller reflow oven, and a finer
grain of paste solder for the 288 pin processors we used. The two older
ovens were the typical 'pizza oven' design with poor zone control of the
separate zones.


Since this is a metal working news group, I will tell you about one
product we build for a customer that entails some metal working.

We build a small number of humidity sensor units for a company in
Portland. They do the final testing and calibration. The box uses an
external humidity sensor with internal electronics on a printed
circuit board. We purchase the external sensor from a company in
Finland for about $95 per. The sensor is in a machined brass housing
that included shielding for three pins that go to a custom connector.
The box does not have room for a connector, so the design engineer
used "dikes", still a good work, even if not PC, to trim away the
brass surround and gain access to the pins. Wires from the circuit
board are soldered to the pins.


Sounds like the microwave VCO modules used in our tuners. They were
mounded in a milled aluminum block with several other small boards, and
connected together with short stubs. Most of them were about 1" square.


At $95 per sensor, we were not about to use dikes to trim the brass.
The brass tube fits nicely into a collet in the little Prazi lathe we
have at work. We use a 0.060 piece of metal to set the lathe tool away
from a shoulder on the sensor and trim the brass away from the pins.
Leaves a much nicer looking product. My general manager now does the
setup and cutting.

There, metal content!


That, and the solder.


--
Greed is the root of all eBay.

On Jan 29, 11:57*pm, " wrote:
On Jan 29, 2:03*pm, Ignoramus7752
wrote:



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...57503289330141...

Two quarters of consecutive growth: in Q3, followed by 5.5% GDP growth in Q4.
There are some who say that because a large part of it was due to
inventory adjustment, that adjustment should be "counted out", but it
is not true: inventories are increased in anticipation of greater
future sales.

I believe that this ends the 2008 recession officially.

But here's an interesting factoid:

Q3 inflation: 1.2%
Q4 inflation: 1.4%
Interest rates: close to 0%

Guess what this portends for interest rates.

If I did not refinance last summer for 30 years @4.875%, I would be
refinancing now (5.22% on average last week).

I do expect that we will collectively become poorer (more exactly, our
actual wealth as a nation will not change or will grow, but the number
value placed on our wealth will become less), but that will occur
through inflation, as opposed to deflation. This is my personal
expectation that may prove wrong.

i

Inventories being increased are a result of many more market pressures
than anticipation of future sales. Currently many things a company
buys are only available in larger lots. Before the recession,
components and material could be purchased as needed, in smaller
quantities. Remember "just in time" inventory control. That isn't
working anymore.

My electronic assembly company now has to buy reels of 1000 components
if we want even one component. A year ago we could buy 100 or 200
crystals to build a circuit board for a customer. Recently, we had to
buy an entire reel of 1000 and had to get ones made with leaded solder
when we really wanted 100 with lead-free solder. We bought the last
reel available anywhere. The correct crystals won't be available until
June. The customer can't wait till June/July.

Last year we had to buy 2000 hand held push button switches with a
custom plastic housing in order to get the 300 we needed for a custom
product build. Since I don't do the purchasing and only hear about the
horror stories, I am sure there are many more components that the
minimum purchase quantity has gone out of sight.

I am sure the same problem is present in all types of manufacturing.
So, do not put much weight in the increased inventory figures.

Paul- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The customer can wait...you can't.

What goes around, comes around.

The JIT effort just pushed the cost of inventory down to the suppliers
with the customers dictating the prices..

And it left only a few suppliers standing.

And now those suppliers being the only ones around can dictate price
and quantity to their customers.

Couple that with the fact that crystals are a custom part...always has
been.

The solution is to charge the customer the extra cost...and likely
lose the contract.

And the cycle continues on....

TMT