RCM only


On Tue, 07 Oct 2008 02:26:31 +0000, the infamous Christopher Tidy
scrawled the following:

Gunner Asch wrote:

Not really, given that 10% of all criminals commit 80% of all crimes.
That would mean that they commit multiple crimes, no?

Carreer criminals who have murdered, tend to repeat their offenses.
So if one of them gets a dirt nap because of a convition for a
murder..the chances are good he committed others.

That's untrue. Just as an example, read this report:
http://www.sgc.wa.gov/PUBS/Recidivis...ivism_CY04.pdf

In particular, note this part:

"Despite generally held views, the more violent crimes
including manslaughter, murder and robbery, accounted
for the smallest number of offenses and, along with sex
offenses, the lowest recidivism rates (Figures 2 and 3)."

Chris, you've chosen a most northern state. Try looking at the
recidivism rates of southern states like Alabama, Georgia, and
Louisiana. I'll bet you find a whole different ballgame down there.

Or gives us the national rates if you find 'em. That will give you a
whole 'nother picture, I'm sure.

--
"Given the low level of competence among politicians,
every American should become a Libertarian."
-- Charley Reese, Alameda Times-Star (California), June 17, 2003

Larry Jaques wrote:
RCM only


On Tue, 07 Oct 2008 02:26:31 +0000, the infamous Christopher Tidy
scrawled the following:


Gunner Asch wrote:


Not really, given that 10% of all criminals commit 80% of all crimes.
That would mean that they commit multiple crimes, no?

Carreer criminals who have murdered, tend to repeat their offenses.
So if one of them gets a dirt nap because of a convition for a
murder..the chances are good he committed others.

That's untrue. Just as an example, read this report:
http://www.sgc.wa.gov/PUBS/Recidivis...ivism_CY04.pdf

In particular, note this part:

"Despite generally held views, the more violent crimes
including manslaughter, murder and robbery, accounted
for the smallest number of offenses and, along with sex
offenses, the lowest recidivism rates (Figures 2 and 3)."


Chris, you've chosen a most northern state. Try looking at the
recidivism rates of southern states like Alabama, Georgia, and
Louisiana. I'll bet you find a whole different ballgame down there.

Or gives us the national rates if you find 'em. That will give you a
whole 'nother picture, I'm sure.

Try this study across 15 states:
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/abstract/rpr94.htm

"Within 3 years...1.2% of those who had served time for homicide were
arrested for homicide."

I would not regard 1.2% as being a particularly high rate of recidivism.
You can argue that over a longer period of time it might be higher, and
that it's high to the people who get murdered, but compared to rates of
recidivism for other crimes it's very low.

Best wishes,

Chris

On Tue, 07 Oct 2008 03:39:51 +0000, the infamous Christopher Tidy
scrawled the following:

Larry Jaques wrote:
RCM only


On Tue, 07 Oct 2008 02:26:31 +0000, the infamous Christopher Tidy
scrawled the following:


Gunner Asch wrote:


Not really, given that 10% of all criminals commit 80% of all crimes.
That would mean that they commit multiple crimes, no?

Carreer criminals who have murdered, tend to repeat their offenses.
So if one of them gets a dirt nap because of a convition for a
murder..the chances are good he committed others.

That's untrue. Just as an example, read this report:
http://www.sgc.wa.gov/PUBS/Recidivis...ivism_CY04.pdf

In particular, note this part:

"Despite generally held views, the more violent crimes
including manslaughter, murder and robbery, accounted
for the smallest number of offenses and, along with sex
offenses, the lowest recidivism rates (Figures 2 and 3)."


Chris, you've chosen a most northern state. Try looking at the
recidivism rates of southern states like Alabama, Georgia, and
Louisiana. I'll bet you find a whole different ballgame down there.

Or gives us the national rates if you find 'em. That will give you a
whole 'nother picture, I'm sure.

Try this study across 15 states:
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/abstract/rpr94.htm

Ah, didn't like the southern states that well, did we?


"Within 3 years...1.2% of those who had served time for homicide were
arrested for homicide."

Now you're picking nits. Career criminals have to be rearrested for
the very same crime in order for it to be classed "recidivism", Chris?
Feh!

From http://www.reasoned.org/glossary.htm#r
recidivism - The tendency to relapse into a prior mode of behaviour;
especially that of a criminal nature.


I would not regard 1.2% as being a particularly high rate of recidivism.

Neither would I, but that's a cherry-picked figure.


You can argue that over a longer period of time it might be higher, and
that it's high to the people who get murdered, but compared to rates of
recidivism for other crimes it's very low.

67.5% of the study criminals were rearrested for crimes within 3
years. You were correct in that homicide and sex crimes had a
slightly lower rate. (1 paragraph above the one you quoted, FWIW.)

"Released prisoners with the lowest
rearrest rates were those in prison for
homicide (40.7%), rape (46.0%), other
sexual assault (41.4%), and driving
under the influence (51.5%)."

Your lovely homicidal maniacs look a bit more violent when you look at
their overall stats, don't they, Chris? While in prison, they learned
not to commit (and get caught for) the same crime after they got out.
I guess that's proof (to you) that correctional facilities work, eh?
But why are we talking about the USA when you have an even worse rate
of crime Over There? big sigh

Possibly the worst part of that study was that while rearrest rates
were 67.5%, reconviction rates were 46.9%, and new prison terms were
only 25.4%. Even though Ohio records were excluded, those numbers hint
strongly at another problem.

--
"Given the low level of competence among politicians,
every American should become a Libertarian."
-- Charley Reese, Alameda Times-Star (California), June 17, 2003

Larry Jaques wrote:
On Tue, 07 Oct 2008 03:39:51 +0000, the infamous Christopher Tidy
scrawled the following:


Larry Jaques wrote:

RCM only


On Tue, 07 Oct 2008 02:26:31 +0000, the infamous Christopher Tidy
scrawled the following:



Gunner Asch wrote:


Not really, given that 10% of all criminals commit 80% of all crimes.
That would mean that they commit multiple crimes, no?

Carreer criminals who have murdered, tend to repeat their offenses.
So if one of them gets a dirt nap because of a convition for a
murder..the chances are good he committed others.

That's untrue. Just as an example, read this report:
http://www.sgc.wa.gov/PUBS/Recidivis...ivism_CY04.pdf

In particular, note this part:

"Despite generally held views, the more violent crimes
including manslaughter, murder and robbery, accounted
for the smallest number of offenses and, along with sex
offenses, the lowest recidivism rates (Figures 2 and 3)."




Chris, you've chosen a most northern state. Try looking at the
recidivism rates of southern states like Alabama, Georgia, and
Louisiana. I'll bet you find a whole different ballgame down there.

Or gives us the national rates if you find 'em. That will give you a
whole 'nother picture, I'm sure.

Try this study across 15 states:
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/abstract/rpr94.htm


Ah, didn't like the southern states that well, did we?



"Within 3 years...1.2% of those who had served time for homicide were
arrested for homicide."


Now you're picking nits. Career criminals have to be rearrested for
the very same crime in order for it to be classed "recidivism", Chris?
Feh!

From http://www.reasoned.org/glossary.htm#r
recidivism - The tendency to relapse into a prior mode of behaviour;
especially that of a criminal nature.



I would not regard 1.2% as being a particularly high rate of recidivism.


Neither would I, but that's a cherry-picked figure.



You can argue that over a longer period of time it might be higher, and
that it's high to the people who get murdered, but compared to rates of
recidivism for other crimes it's very low.


67.5% of the study criminals were rearrested for crimes within 3
years. You were correct in that homicide and sex crimes had a
slightly lower rate. (1 paragraph above the one you quoted, FWIW.)

"Released prisoners with the lowest
rearrest rates were those in prison for
homicide (40.7%), rape (46.0%), other
sexual assault (41.4%), and driving
under the influence (51.5%)."

Your lovely homicidal maniacs look a bit more violent when you look at
their overall stats, don't they, Chris? While in prison, they learned
not to commit (and get caught for) the same crime after they got out.
I guess that's proof (to you) that correctional facilities work, eh?
But why are we talking about the USA when you have an even worse rate
of crime Over There? big sigh

Possibly the worst part of that study was that while rearrest rates
were 67.5%, reconviction rates were 46.9%, and new prison terms were
only 25.4%. Even though Ohio records were excluded, those numbers hint
strongly at another problem.

Gunner was talking about murderers who murder again. At 1.2% in 3 years,
that figure is very low compared to the number of robbers who rob again,
etc.

Whichever way you look at it, it is difficult to make a case that
recidivism amongst murderers is high compared to recidivism in other
categories of criminals.

Chris

On Tue, 07 Oct 2008 23:37:12 +0000, the infamous Christopher Tidy
scrawled the following:

Larry Jaques wrote:
On Tue, 07 Oct 2008 03:39:51 +0000, the infamous Christopher Tidy
scrawled the following:

Gunner was talking about murderers who murder again. At 1.2% in 3 years,
that figure is very low compared to the number of robbers who rob again,
etc.

Oh, I hadn't caught that, getting into the thread late. Mea culpa.


Whichever way you look at it, it is difficult to make a case that
recidivism amongst murderers is high compared to recidivism in other
categories of criminals.

True.

--
"Given the low level of competence among politicians,
every American should become a Libertarian."
-- Charley Reese, Alameda Times-Star (California), June 17, 2003