The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

Dean Hoffman wrote

The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

Bet we dont see anything like zero new positives in april.

On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 03:46:52 +1100, "Rod Speed"
wrote:

Dean Hoffman wrote

The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

Bet we dont see anything like zero new positives in april.


I am not sure he means zero positives, just a rate low enough that we
can relax a little.
I am also not sure he is right. Time will tell.
Humans do have a way of spontaneously getting over this stuff
The Spanish flu just sort of went away.

On 2/20/2021 12:15 PM, wrote:
On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 03:46:52 +1100, "Rod Speed"
wrote:

Dean Hoffman wrote

The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

Bet we dont see anything like zero new positives in april.


I am not sure he means zero positives, just a rate low enough that we
can relax a little.
I am also not sure he is right. Time will tell.
Humans do have a way of spontaneously getting over this stuff
The Spanish flu just sort of went away.



Not really
https://www.history.com/news/1918-fl...ic-never-ended

wrote in message
...
On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 03:46:52 +1100, "Rod Speed"
wrote:

Dean Hoffman wrote

The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

Bet we dont see anything like zero new positives in april.

I am not sure he means zero positives, just a
rate low enough that we can relax a little.

Herd immunity is about a hell of a lot more than just relax a little.

I am also not sure he is right. Time will tell.

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Humans do have a way of spontaneously getting over this stuff

With some viruses they do, with others they dont.

The Spanish flu just sort of went away.

And influenza, the common cold, smallpox,
ebola, polio etc etc etc didnt.

On Saturday, February 20, 2021 at 10:47:04 AM UTC-6, Rod Speed wrote:
Dean Hoffman wrote
The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731
Bet we dont see anything like zero new positives in april.

Yeah, that part didn't pass the common sense test.

On 2/20/2021 4:37 AM, Dean Hoffman wrote:
The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731



Brazil thought they had reached herd immunity. How's that working out
for them?


"Another surge was coming. This time, Uildéia Galvão thought they were
prepared.

Galvão, the lead physician in the coronavirus ward at a public hospital
in the Brazilian city of Manaus, had been haunted by the wave that
crashed last spring. In less than 10 days, it ruptured the citys
bewildered medical system. Sick patients were turned away. The dead were
piled into mass graves.

So Galvãos hospital organized contingency plans. Additional beds were
reserved, and a detailed schedule for opening them was created.

But the new surge, when it came, was different. The virus had mutated,
with a suite of alterations that probably made it more transmissible €”
and perhaps more lethal. Manaus was hit by what scientists call the P.1
variant. This time, it didnt take 10 days to overwhelm Galvãos
hospital. It took 24 hours.

Coronavirus-ravaged Brazil places hopes on Chinese vaccine that works
only half the time

Even in a city as traumatized as Manaus, the horror has been unlike
anything doctors have seen. The oxygen quickly ran out. Dozens of
hospital patients have died of asphyxiation. Scores more, unable to get
care, have died at home. Every half-hour, one doctor said, a funeral
procession rumbled toward the cemetery.

€œWe had a plan,€� Galvão said. €œWe increased the availability of beds.
But even with that, there was strangulation.€�

The humanitarian disaster unfolding in the Amazons largest city has
shown what happens when government failures, scientific misfires and
public indifference meet a new, possibly more dangerous variant of the
virus that has ravaged the globe.

Believed to have been circulating in the Amazon since December, P.1 now
appears to be the dominant coronavirus strain in Manaus. Its been
detected in São Paulo and as far away as Japan. A first case was
identified in the United States on Monday.

Scientists are racing to understand the variant, one of several to have
emerged in recent months. They are trying to determine whether it truly
is more transmissible or has simply exploited lax behavior in a region
where many people are either unable or unwilling to take precautions
against the virus. The biggest unknown is whether the variant can infect
people who have recovered from the more common coronavirus strain.

A dying man, and a desperate search for an open bed

Doctors and front-line health workers are describing a dangerous new
chapter in the struggle against the virus. The shift came suddenly: It
wasnt just the surge in patients but the severity of their cases.
People started arriving at hospitals significantly sicker, lungs chewed
up with disease.

€œWhat has been said before, that this is a strain more transmissible but
not more severe €” thats not what is happening in Manaus,€�
epidemiologist Noaldo Lucena said. €œThis isnt a feeling. Its a fact.€�

The global implications could be significant. Since the beginning of the
pandemic, Manaus, a city of 2 million swelling along the Amazon River,
has been closely studied by scientists. Local officials shied away from
lockdowns or restrictions that have been successful elsewhere. And what
policies did exist, many people ignored. The virus, believed to have
infected a large portion of the population, was left mostly free to
spread naturally.

€œManaus represents a €˜sentinel population, giving us a data-based
indication of what may happen if SARS-CoV-2 is allowed to spread largely
unmitigated,€� a team of researches wrote this month in Science.

For a time, after the wave of April and May subsided, scientists and
government officials wondered whether the city had achieved herd
immunity. Some scientists estimated three-fourths of the population had
been infected. Many believed the worst was behind the city.
Daily reported cases in Manaus through July

€œWhy Manaus will be the first Brazilian city to defeat the Covid-19
pandemic,€� wrote a group of researchers from the Federal University of
Amazonas.

No one is saying that now.
A seductive vision unravels

In late December, as the holidays were set to begin, Amazonas state Gov.
Wilson Lima debated what to do. The daily counts of cases,
hospitalizations and deaths had begun to pick up. Scientists were
issuing increasingly urgent letters, calling on officials to institute
immediate restrictions on businesses and gatherings.

€œWe need to save lives and not deepen the health an humanitarian
disaster,€� epidemiologist Jesem Orellana pleaded in one such missive.
€œLives matter!€�

On Christmas Eve, Lima announced the closure of all nonessential
businesses. Protesters swept the city, closing roads and setting fires.
Business owners and lawmakers said the economy couldnt survive a
shutdown. A third of the citys workers are informal €” street vendors,
delivery men, maids. They pushed the governor to repeal the decree. And
within two days, he did.

The coronavirus has come roaring back into Brazil, shattering illusions
it wouldnt

Retailers and restaurants did brisk holiday business. Massive parties €”
some numbering more than 4,000 revelers €” gushed onto the streets. And
supporters of President Jair Bolsonaro, who has made inaction the
defining element of his pandemic presidency, rejoiced.

€œAll power emanates from the people,€� tweeted Congressman Eduardo
Bolsonaro, the presidents son.

€œRegardless of the alarmist newscasts, Manaus has seen a large drop in
deaths since June, showing collective (or herd) immunity,€� tweeted Osmar
Terra, a former Bolsonaro cabinet member.

But that belief €” which seems to have seduced many in Manaus into a
false sense of security €” was quickly proved a fiction. Soon after the
holidays, deaths and hospitalizations exploded. The hospital system
buckled. The number of confirmed coronavirus deaths at home rose from a
total of 35 from May through December to 178 so far this month,
according to city health officials.
Daily reported cases in Manaus since October

That stunned Brazilian researchers who last month published a paper in
Science proclaiming that 76 percent of Manauss population had already
been infected with the virus.

€œHow can you have 76 percent of people infected and, at the same time,
have an epidemic thats bigger than the first?" asked author Ester
Sabino. €œThis was a concern from the moment cases started to rise.€�

To understand what was happening €” and why the city wasnt protected
from a debilitating second wave €” the team started sequencing fresh
samples, to see if any changes in the virus could explain it.

On Jan. 10, Japan announced the discovery of a new variant, found to
have infected four travelers from Brazils Amazon region. Then Sabinos
team published preliminary findings showing that the strain accounted
for 42 percent of the coronavirus cases sampled in December.

As viruses course through a population, they inevitably mutate, although
most such genetic changes are functionally insignificant. The
coronavirus has spawned countless variants around the world. But P.1 €”
along with variants found in South Africa and Britain €” is provoking
particular concern.

Not only does it have a spike protein mutation that could lead to a
higher infection rate, it possesses whats called an €œescape mutation.€�
Also found in the South Africa variant, the mutation, known as E484k,
could help it evade coronavirus antibodies.

€˜There are no words: As coronavirus kills Indigenous elders, endangered
languages face extinction

Sylvain Aldighieri, a senior official with the Pan American Health
Organization who has been tracking the Manaus outbreak, said there is no
evidence to suggest that reinfections are driving the health crisis. €œWe
would have many more reports,€� he said. €œWe have to use our common sense
at this point. Herd immunity in Manaus was not achieved.€�

Other scientists have expressed doubt that 76 percent of people in
Manaus were infected.

Doctors said they havent seen many reinfections but cautioned that its
nearly impossible to know. The city was swept by the disease at a time
when shortages in supplies meant few could get tested. That early
failure has seeded todays: Without previous testing, its impossible to
confirm a reinfection.

One case, however, has been confirmed by scientists. Dozens more are
under analysis.

Mariana Leite, 31, an engineer in Manaus, said she tested positive for
antibodies in June and felt a €œsense of relief.€� She didnt think it
would be possible to be reinfected, but she said she was. Her polymerase
chain reaction test came back positive Jan. 8.

€œIts caused so much anxiety in everyone,€� she said. €œWe feel like its
never going to end.€�

Meanwhile, the P.1 variant appears to have widened its reach: In
January, according to a sample of 48 cases, it represented 85 percent of
the infections.

The surge is €˜like a horror film

The toll has been clear. By mid-January, the hospital system hadnt just
run out of beds, as it did during the first wave, but also oxygen. Wards
had been transformed, in the words of one epidemiologist, into €œchambers
of asphyxiation.€� Hundreds of patients were shipped out of the city,
some to the other side of the country.

The federal government was warned of the looming disaster, according to
an investigation requested by the supreme court, but didnt do enough to
avert it.

On Jan. 3, local health officials told federal officials the health
system would probably fail within 10 days. Then the company White
Martins, which supplies the public health system in Manaus with oxygen,
warned state and federal health officials it couldnt keep up with
demand. On Jan. 14 and 15, dozens of people suffocated to death.
"

Bob F wrote
Dean Hoffman wrote

The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

Brazil thought they had reached herd immunity.

But in fact they hadn't even got close.

On Saturday, February 20, 2021 at 7:37:13 AM UTC-5, wrote:
The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

He may be a professor, but much of what he says doesn't conform to
obvious reality. Like this:

""But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didnt suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. "

Traveling, family gatherings, parties, shopping, etc all increased dramatically from
Thanksgiving through XMas. Many people didn;t give a damn and refused to comply
with requests to limit gatherings. So why wouldn't that be a big part, probably the
dominant reason why new cases peaked around Jan 8? There was a rapid decline
last spring too, when infection rates were still low and there was no possibility at
all of heard immunity. As soon as we reduced emergency measures, it took off
again, peaking in July, again, that cycle had nothing to do with heard immunity.
This last up cycle looks like more of the same to me. Part of the decline can
certainly be attributed to more people having already had it and to the vaccines,
but to attribute it only to that is ridiculous. He also states falsely that people
who have had it have great immunity and that if they do get it again, they don't
have severe cases. I read about documented cases where people got infected
again within six weeks or so of having recovered. Two cases in particular, they
had far more severe cases the second time and died. IDK what the overall data
is, but he flat out stated that the second time isn't as severe.

On 02/20/2021 10:38 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 2/20/2021 12:15 PM, wrote:
On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 03:46:52 +1100, "Rod Speed"
wrote:

Dean Hoffman wrote

The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731


Bet we dont see anything like zero new positives in april.


I am not sure he means zero positives, just a rate low enough that we
can relax a little.
I am also not sure he is right. Time will tell.
Humans do have a way of spontaneously getting over this stuff
The Spanish flu just sort of went away.



Not really
https://www.history.com/news/1918-fl...ic-never-ended


There are studies claiming the pandemic subsided when after it killed
off the TB cases. The observed incidence of TB dropped dramatically
after 1919.

On Sat, 20 Feb 2021 12:38:53 -0500, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 2/20/2021 12:15 PM, wrote:
On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 03:46:52 +1100, "Rod Speed"
wrote:

Dean Hoffman wrote

The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

Bet we dont see anything like zero new positives in april.


I am not sure he means zero positives, just a rate low enough that we
can relax a little.
I am also not sure he is right. Time will tell.
Humans do have a way of spontaneously getting over this stuff
The Spanish flu just sort of went away.



Not really
https://www.history.com/news/1918-fl...ic-never-ended

That is what I alluded to when I said
"just a rate low enough that we can relax a little".
If you remember I also said many times, this may become a seasonal
ritual of getting your latest and greatest Covid shot, like the flu
shot.

"rbowman" wrote in message
...
On 02/20/2021 10:38 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 2/20/2021 12:15 PM, wrote:
On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 03:46:52 +1100, "Rod Speed"
wrote:

Dean Hoffman wrote

The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731


Bet we dont see anything like zero new positives in april.


I am not sure he means zero positives, just a rate low enough that we
can relax a little.
I am also not sure he is right. Time will tell.
Humans do have a way of spontaneously getting over this stuff
The Spanish flu just sort of went away.



Not really
https://www.history.com/news/1918-fl...ic-never-ended

There are studies claiming the pandemic subsided when after it killed off
the TB cases.

Doesnt explain why it killed so many young and healthy people.

The observed incidence of TB dropped dramatically after 1919.

Because thats when vaccination and mass xrays started.

On Sat, 20 Feb 2021 04:37:10 -0800 (PST), Dean Hoffman posted for all of us to
digest...


The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731


Does this follow the proper narrative? I don't think so. But time will tell.

--
Tekkie

On 02/20/2021 12:48 PM, Fred wrote:

"rbowman" wrote in message
...
On 02/20/2021 10:38 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 2/20/2021 12:15 PM, wrote:
On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 03:46:52 +1100, "Rod Speed"
wrote:

Dean Hoffman wrote

The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731



Bet we dont see anything like zero new positives in april.


I am not sure he means zero positives, just a rate low enough that we
can relax a little.
I am also not sure he is right. Time will tell.
Humans do have a way of spontaneously getting over this stuff
The Spanish flu just sort of went away.



Not really
https://www.history.com/news/1918-fl...ic-never-ended

There are studies claiming the pandemic subsided when after it killed
off the TB cases.

Doesnt explain why it killed so many young and healthy people.

Young, but not necessarily healthy.

http://exhibits.hsl.virginia.edu/alav/tuberculosis/

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31035651/

https://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/...10/25_flu.html

"rbowman" wrote in message
...
On 02/20/2021 12:48 PM, Fred wrote:

"rbowman" wrote in message
...
On 02/20/2021 10:38 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 2/20/2021 12:15 PM, wrote:
On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 03:46:52 +1100, "Rod Speed"
wrote:

Dean Hoffman wrote

The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731



Bet we dont see anything like zero new positives in april.


I am not sure he means zero positives, just a rate low enough that we
can relax a little.
I am also not sure he is right. Time will tell.
Humans do have a way of spontaneously getting over this stuff
The Spanish flu just sort of went away.



Not really
https://www.history.com/news/1918-fl...ic-never-ended

There are studies claiming the pandemic subsided when after it killed
off the TB cases.

Doesnt explain why it killed so many young and healthy people.

Young, but not necessarily healthy.

They were in fact much more healthy than those who it didnt kill.

http://exhibits.hsl.virginia.edu/alav/tuberculosis/

Very few of them had TB.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31035651/

Stupid fools cant even manage to work out the difference
between cause and effect and coincidence.

https://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/...10/25_flu.html

TB doesnt kill that quickly.

On Sat, 20 Feb 2021 20:07:17 -0700, lowbrowwoman, the endlessly driveling,
troll-feeding, senile idiot, blabbered again:


Young, but not necessarily healthy.

TWO senile bigmouths having a "conversation"! LOL

On 2021-02-20 at 05:37:10 MST, "Dean Hoffman" wrote:

The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

He is a surgeon, not a virologist or epidemiologist, writing outside of his
area of expertise in a publication that has an axe to grind.

"Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on
when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case
capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would
mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity."

This is speculation, and it's probably wrong. My speculation €” and I'm not a
virologist or epidemiologist either €” is that many people have overestimated
the ratio of silent (unconfirmed) infections from the beginning. There's been
a lot of wishful thinking about this virus, and some of it has come from
people posing as experts.

On 2021-02-20 at 10:47:24 MST, ""Rod Speed"" wrote:

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota's CIDRAP, has pointed out
that rosy predictions about herd immunity were blown out of the water by what
happened in prisons, where the virus didn't slow down until nearly all the
prisoners had been infected.

On 2/21/2021 3:31 AM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-20 at 10:47:24 MST, ""Rod Speed"" wrote:

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota's CIDRAP, has pointed out
that rosy predictions about herd immunity were blown out of the water by what
happened in prisons, where the virus didn't slow down until nearly all the
prisoners had been infected.




A captive population is not a good sampling group for measuring any sort
of prediction.

--
Maggie

"Muggles" wrote in message ...
On 2/21/2021 3:31 AM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-20 at 10:47:24 MST, ""Rod Speed""
wrote:

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota's CIDRAP, has pointed
out
that rosy predictions about herd immunity were blown out of the water by
what
happened in prisons, where the virus didn't slow down until nearly all
the
prisoners had been infected.

A captive population is not a good sampling group for measuring any sort
of prediction.

Thats bull**** with the question of whether herd immunity works.

It is in fact the best group to use for measuring that.

On 2/21/2021 11:24 AM, Rod Speed wrote:


"Muggles" wrote in message
...
On 2/21/2021 3:31 AM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-20 at 10:47:24 MST, ""Rod Speed""
wrote:

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota's CIDRAP, has
pointed out
that rosy predictions about herd immunity were blown out of the water
by what
happened in prisons, where the virus didn't slow down until nearly
all the
prisoners had been infected.

A captive population is not a good sampling group for measuring any
sort of prediction.

Thats bull**** with the question of whether herd immunity works.

It is in fact the best group to use for measuring that.

Herd immunity happens in an open environment where NOT all people
actually get infected.

--
Maggie

"Muggles" wrote in message ...
On 2/21/2021 11:24 AM, Rod Speed wrote:


"Muggles" wrote in message
...
On 2/21/2021 3:31 AM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-20 at 10:47:24 MST, ""Rod Speed""
wrote:

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota's CIDRAP, has pointed
out
that rosy predictions about herd immunity were blown out of the water
by what
happened in prisons, where the virus didn't slow down until nearly all
the
prisoners had been infected.

A captive population is not a good sampling group for measuring any sort
of prediction.

Thats bull**** with the question of whether herd immunity works.

It is in fact the best group to use for measuring that.

Herd immunity happens in an open environment

It actually happens in ANY environment.

On 02/20/2021 08:54 PM, Fred wrote:
Stupid fools cant even manage to work out the difference
between cause and effect and coincidence.

Everyone isn't as brilliant as you.

On 2021-02-21 at 10:32:59 MST, "Muggles" wrote:

Herd immunity happens in an open environment where NOT all people
actually get infected.

Herd immunity happens in ANY environment €” eventually. The question is how
many members of a herd must get infected (or vaccinated) before their immunity
serves to protect the remaining members of the herd from infection. By
reducing the other variables such as distancing, the prison "experiment" shows
that the number for SARS-CoV-2 is MUCH higher than Makary's 55%.

On 02/21/2021 02:31 AM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-20 at 10:47:24 MST, ""Rod Speed"" wrote:

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota's CIDRAP, has pointed out
that rosy predictions about herd immunity were blown out of the water by what
happened in prisons, where the virus didn't slow down until nearly all the
prisoners had been infected.




otoh, the Marion facility in Ohio had around 2000 positive cases, most
of which were asymptomatic. I could never get hard figures on the deaths
but despite having an aging prison population they were minimal. Had the
cells been filled with dying prisoners the media would have been all
over it.

On 2/21/2021 12:39 PM, Rod Speed wrote:


"Muggles" wrote in message
...
On 2/21/2021 11:24 AM, Rod Speed wrote:


"Muggles" wrote in message
...
On 2/21/2021 3:31 AM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-20 at 10:47:24 MST, ""Rod Speed""
wrote:

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota's CIDRAP, has
pointed out
that rosy predictions about herd immunity were blown out of the
water by what
happened in prisons, where the virus didn't slow down until nearly
all the
prisoners had been infected.

A captive population is not a good sampling group for measuring any
sort of prediction.

Thats bull**** with the question of whether herd immunity works.

It is in fact the best group to use for measuring that.

Herd immunity happens in an open environment

It actually happens in ANY environment.



Evidently, it doesn't.

--
Maggie

On 2/21/2021 12:49 PM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-21 at 10:32:59 MST, "Muggles" wrote:

Herd immunity happens in an open environment where NOT all people
actually get infected.


Herd immunity happens in ANY environment €” eventually. The question is how
many members of a herd must get infected (or vaccinated) before their immunity
serves to protect the remaining members of the herd from infection. By
reducing the other variables such as distancing, the prison "experiment" shows
that the number for SARS-CoV-2 is MUCH higher than Makary's 55%.


People can't seem to make up their minds. One person brings up the
prison where everyone was infected, then complains herd immunity doesn't
work, and someone else counters that argument and conclusion.


--
Maggie

On Sunday, February 21, 2021 at 2:28:57 PM UTC-5, Muggles wrote:
On 2/21/2021 12:49 PM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-21 at 10:32:59 MST, "Muggles" wrote:

Herd immunity happens in an open environment where NOT all people
actually get infected.


Herd immunity happens in ANY environment €” eventually. The question is how
many members of a herd must get infected (or vaccinated) before their immunity
serves to protect the remaining members of the herd from infection. By
reducing the other variables such as distancing, the prison "experiment" shows
that the number for SARS-CoV-2 is MUCH higher than Makary's 55%.

People can't seem to make up their minds. One person brings up the
prison where everyone was infected, then complains herd immunity doesn't
work, and someone else counters that argument and conclusion.


--
Maggie

Unlike you, who has your mind all made up and won't ever change. Only
problem is that it's almost all wrong. Sometimes nature fixes that.
Ask Herman Cain.

"rbowman" wrote in message
...
On 02/20/2021 08:54 PM, Fred wrote:
Stupid fools cant even manage to work out the difference
between cause and effect and coincidence.

Everyone isn't as brilliant as you.

Doesnt take any brilliance to work that out, or to
notice that that was the time when the TB vaccine
was first available and mass xray screening for TB
started and that its much more likely that was the
reason for the big drop in TB deaths at that time.

"Muggles" wrote in message ...
On 2/21/2021 12:39 PM, Rod Speed wrote:


"Muggles" wrote in message
...
On 2/21/2021 11:24 AM, Rod Speed wrote:


"Muggles" wrote in message
...
On 2/21/2021 3:31 AM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-20 at 10:47:24 MST, ""Rod Speed""
wrote:

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota's CIDRAP, has
pointed out
that rosy predictions about herd immunity were blown out of the water
by what
happened in prisons, where the virus didn't slow down until nearly
all the
prisoners had been infected.

A captive population is not a good sampling group for measuring any
sort of prediction.

Thats bull**** with the question of whether herd immunity works.

It is in fact the best group to use for measuring that.

Herd immunity happens in an open environment

It actually happens in ANY environment.

Evidently, it doesn't.

Of course it does. You have to get something like 80% who have caught
the disease or who have been vaccinated to see it under control.

"Muggles" wrote in message ...
On 2/21/2021 12:49 PM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-21 at 10:32:59 MST, "Muggles" wrote:

Herd immunity happens in an open environment where NOT all people
actually get infected.


Herd immunity happens in ANY environment €” eventually. The question is
how
many members of a herd must get infected (or vaccinated) before their
immunity
serves to protect the remaining members of the herd from infection. By
reducing the other variables such as distancing, the prison "experiment"
shows
that the number for SARS-CoV-2 is MUCH higher than Makary's 55%.

People can't seem to make up their minds.

More mindless stuff.

One person brings up the prison where everyone was infected,

That didnt happen in any prison.

then complains herd immunity doesn't work,

No one said that. We JUST say that herd immunity
HAS NOT BEEN ACHIEVED in any country that has
been stupid enough to let the virus rip.

and someone else counters that argument and conclusion.

That didnt happen either.

On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 11:52:41 -0700, rbowman
wrote:

On 02/21/2021 02:31 AM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-20 at 10:47:24 MST, ""Rod Speed"" wrote:

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota's CIDRAP, has pointed out
that rosy predictions about herd immunity were blown out of the water by what
happened in prisons, where the virus didn't slow down until nearly all the
prisoners had been infected.




otoh, the Marion facility in Ohio had around 2000 positive cases, most
of which were asymptomatic. I could never get hard figures on the deaths
but despite having an aging prison population they were minimal. Had the
cells been filled with dying prisoners the media would have been all
over it.

Since the US Covid survival rate is ~99.8% that means if 4 people out
of 2000 inmates die, assuming almost every inmate at Marion at the
peak population (2033) was infected, they are duplicating the average
in America.
I doubt 4 inmates dying would make the news.
According to BJS.GOV the normal death rate in state and local prisons
is more than that anyway (0.25%)

https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/msfp0116st.pdf

On Mon, 22 Feb 2021 08:36:08 +1100, "Fred" wrote:



"rbowman" wrote in message
...
On 02/20/2021 08:54 PM, Fred wrote:
Stupid fools cant even manage to work out the difference
between cause and effect and coincidence.

Everyone isn't as brilliant as you.

Doesnt take any brilliance to work that out, or to
notice that that was the time when the TB vaccine
was first available and mass xray screening for TB
started and that its much more likely that was the
reason for the big drop in TB deaths at that time.

The treatment for TB was still pretty primitive in the 50s. My dad had
it. They really expected him to die.

wrote in message
...
On Mon, 22 Feb 2021 08:36:08 +1100, "Fred" wrote:



"rbowman" wrote in message
...
On 02/20/2021 08:54 PM, Fred wrote:
Stupid fools cant even manage to work out the difference
between cause and effect and coincidence.

Everyone isn't as brilliant as you.

Doesnt take any brilliance to work that out, or to
notice that that was the time when the TB vaccine
was first available and mass xray screening for TB
started and that its much more likely that was the
reason for the big drop in TB deaths at that time.

The treatment for TB was still pretty primitive in the
50s. My dad had it. They really expected him to die.

Thats a different issue to the avoidance of getting it in
the first place. Its the big drop in the number getting
infected that happened then and has been proposed
by some as due to the spanish flu.

wrote in message
...
On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 11:52:41 -0700, rbowman
wrote:

On 02/21/2021 02:31 AM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-20 at 10:47:24 MST, ""Rod Speed""
wrote:

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota's CIDRAP, has pointed
out
that rosy predictions about herd immunity were blown out of the water by
what
happened in prisons, where the virus didn't slow down until nearly all
the
prisoners had been infected.




otoh, the Marion facility in Ohio had around 2000 positive cases, most
of which were asymptomatic. I could never get hard figures on the deaths
but despite having an aging prison population they were minimal. Had the
cells been filled with dying prisoners the media would have been all
over it.

Since the US Covid survival rate is ~99.8% that means if 4 people out
of 2000 inmates die, assuming almost every inmate at Marion at the
peak population (2033) was infected, they are duplicating the average
in America.

And the demographics of that prison are nothing like the country as a whole.

I doubt 4 inmates dying would make the news.

According to BJS.GOV the normal death rate in state
and local prisons is more than that anyway (0.25%)

https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/msfp0116st.pdf

On Mon, 22 Feb 2021 10:24:50 +1100, cantankerous trolling geezer Rodent
Speed, the auto-contradicting senile sociopath, blabbered, again:

FLUSH the abnormal trolling senile asshole's latest troll**** unread

10:24??? LOL So you've been up and trolling ALL NIGHT LONG and ALL MORNING,
yet AGAIN, you subnormal senile idiot! Why don't you just swallow your
Nembutal, you useless octogenerian senile troll?

--
Marland answering senile Rodent's statement, "I don't leak":
"That¢s because so much **** and ****e emanates from your gob that there is
nothing left to exit normally, your arsehole has clammed shut through disuse
and the end of prick is only clear because you are such a ******."
Message-ID:

On Mon, 22 Feb 2021 10:24:50 +1100, "Rod Speed"
wrote:



wrote in message
.. .
On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 11:52:41 -0700, rbowman
wrote:

On 02/21/2021 02:31 AM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-20 at 10:47:24 MST, ""Rod Speed""
wrote:

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota's CIDRAP, has pointed
out
that rosy predictions about herd immunity were blown out of the water by
what
happened in prisons, where the virus didn't slow down until nearly all
the
prisoners had been infected.




otoh, the Marion facility in Ohio had around 2000 positive cases, most
of which were asymptomatic. I could never get hard figures on the deaths
but despite having an aging prison population they were minimal. Had the
cells been filled with dying prisoners the media would have been all
over it.

Since the US Covid survival rate is ~99.8% that means if 4 people out
of 2000 inmates die, assuming almost every inmate at Marion at the
peak population (2033) was infected, they are duplicating the average
in America.

And the demographics of that prison are nothing like the country as a whole.

Women are certainly under represented ;-)

wrote in message
news
On Mon, 22 Feb 2021 10:24:50 +1100, "Rod Speed"
wrote:



wrote in message
. ..
On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 11:52:41 -0700, rbowman
wrote:

On 02/21/2021 02:31 AM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-20 at 10:47:24 MST, ""Rod Speed""
wrote:

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota's CIDRAP, has
pointed
out
that rosy predictions about herd immunity were blown out of the water
by
what
happened in prisons, where the virus didn't slow down until nearly all
the
prisoners had been infected.




otoh, the Marion facility in Ohio had around 2000 positive cases, most
of which were asymptomatic. I could never get hard figures on the deaths
but despite having an aging prison population they were minimal. Had the
cells been filled with dying prisoners the media would have been all
over it.

Since the US Covid survival rate is ~99.8% that means if 4 people out
of 2000 inmates die, assuming almost every inmate at Marion at the
peak population (2033) was infected, they are duplicating the average
in America.

And the demographics of that prison are nothing like the country as a
whole.

Women are certainly under represented ;-)

And blacks and hispanics grossly over represented.

Young people too.

On Sunday, February 21, 2021 at 5:55:45 PM UTC-5, wrote:
On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 11:52:41 -0700, rbowman
wrote:
On 02/21/2021 02:31 AM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-20 at 10:47:24 MST, ""Rod Speed"" wrote:

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota's CIDRAP, has pointed out
that rosy predictions about herd immunity were blown out of the water by what
happened in prisons, where the virus didn't slow down until nearly all the
prisoners had been infected.




otoh, the Marion facility in Ohio had around 2000 positive cases, most
of which were asymptomatic. I could never get hard figures on the deaths
but despite having an aging prison population they were minimal. Had the
cells been filled with dying prisoners the media would have been all
over it.
Since the US Covid survival rate is ~99.8%

IDK where you got that number. I see 500K dead, 28 mil cases,
that's 1.7%. Even if you account for some number of cases never
identified, I don't see any credible sources saying the death rate is
only 0.2%. Not here or anywhere.

On Mon, 22 Feb 2021 06:22:47 -0800 (PST), trader_4
wrote:

On Sunday, February 21, 2021 at 5:55:45 PM UTC-5, wrote:
On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 11:52:41 -0700, rbowman
wrote:
On 02/21/2021 02:31 AM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-20 at 10:47:24 MST, ""Rod Speed"" wrote:

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota's CIDRAP, has pointed out
that rosy predictions about herd immunity were blown out of the water by what
happened in prisons, where the virus didn't slow down until nearly all the
prisoners had been infected.




otoh, the Marion facility in Ohio had around 2000 positive cases, most
of which were asymptomatic. I could never get hard figures on the deaths
but despite having an aging prison population they were minimal. Had the
cells been filled with dying prisoners the media would have been all
over it.
Since the US Covid survival rate is ~99.8%

IDK where you got that number. I see 500K dead, 28 mil cases,
that's 1.7%. Even if you account for some number of cases never
identified, I don't see any credible sources saying the death rate is
only 0.2%. Not here or anywhere.


It is based on a projection of the number of people who got Covid, got
better spontaneously and were never tested. I can't find the article
right now but it was based on positive antibody tests in people who
never presented at a doctor or went to a hospital.
I suppose Bowman's observation about the fatalities or lack thereof at
Marion tends to verify that.
Three or 4 dead inmates is not going to make the news. Forty would.