On Sat, 20 Feb 2021 12:38:53 -0500, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 2/20/2021 12:15 PM, wrote:
On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 03:46:52 +1100, "Rod Speed"
wrote:

Dean Hoffman wrote

The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

Bet we don’t see anything like zero new positives in april.


I am not sure he means zero positives, just a rate low enough that we
can relax a little.
I am also not sure he is right. Time will tell.
Humans do have a way of spontaneously getting over this stuff
The Spanish flu just sort of went away.



Not really
https://www.history.com/news/1918-fl...ic-never-ended

That is what I alluded to when I said
"just a rate low enough that we can relax a little".
If you remember I also said many times, this may become a seasonal
ritual of getting your latest and greatest Covid shot, like the flu
shot.

"rbowman" wrote in message
...
On 02/20/2021 10:38 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 2/20/2021 12:15 PM, wrote:
On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 03:46:52 +1100, "Rod Speed"
wrote:

Dean Hoffman wrote

The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731


Bet we don’t see anything like zero new positives in april.


I am not sure he means zero positives, just a rate low enough that we
can relax a little.
I am also not sure he is right. Time will tell.
Humans do have a way of spontaneously getting over this stuff
The Spanish flu just sort of went away.



Not really
https://www.history.com/news/1918-fl...ic-never-ended

There are studies claiming the pandemic subsided when after it killed off
the TB cases.

Doesn’t explain why it killed so many young and healthy people.

The observed incidence of TB dropped dramatically after 1919.

Because that’s when vaccination and mass xrays started.

On Sat, 20 Feb 2021 04:37:10 -0800 (PST), Dean Hoffman posted for all of us to
digest...


The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731


Does this follow the proper narrative? I don't think so. But time will tell.

--
Tekkie

On 02/20/2021 12:48 PM, Fred wrote:

"rbowman" wrote in message
...
On 02/20/2021 10:38 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 2/20/2021 12:15 PM, wrote:
On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 03:46:52 +1100, "Rod Speed"
wrote:

Dean Hoffman wrote

The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731



Bet we don’t see anything like zero new positives in april.


I am not sure he means zero positives, just a rate low enough that we
can relax a little.
I am also not sure he is right. Time will tell.
Humans do have a way of spontaneously getting over this stuff
The Spanish flu just sort of went away.



Not really
https://www.history.com/news/1918-fl...ic-never-ended

There are studies claiming the pandemic subsided when after it killed
off the TB cases.

Doesn’t explain why it killed so many young and healthy people.

Young, but not necessarily healthy.

http://exhibits.hsl.virginia.edu/alav/tuberculosis/

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31035651/

https://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/...10/25_flu.html

"rbowman" wrote in message
...
On 02/20/2021 12:48 PM, Fred wrote:

"rbowman" wrote in message
...
On 02/20/2021 10:38 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 2/20/2021 12:15 PM, wrote:
On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 03:46:52 +1100, "Rod Speed"
wrote:

Dean Hoffman wrote

The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731



Bet we don’t see anything like zero new positives in april.


I am not sure he means zero positives, just a rate low enough that we
can relax a little.
I am also not sure he is right. Time will tell.
Humans do have a way of spontaneously getting over this stuff
The Spanish flu just sort of went away.



Not really
https://www.history.com/news/1918-fl...ic-never-ended

There are studies claiming the pandemic subsided when after it killed
off the TB cases.

Doesn’t explain why it killed so many young and healthy people.

Young, but not necessarily healthy.

They were in fact much more healthy than those who it didn’t kill.

http://exhibits.hsl.virginia.edu/alav/tuberculosis/

Very few of them had TB.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31035651/

Stupid fools cant even manage to work out the difference
between cause and effect and coincidence.

https://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/...10/25_flu.html

TB doesn’t kill that quickly.

On Sat, 20 Feb 2021 20:07:17 -0700, lowbrowwoman, the endlessly driveling,
troll-feeding, senile idiot, blabbered again:


Young, but not necessarily healthy.

TWO senile bigmouths having a "conversation"! LOL

On 2021-02-20 at 05:37:10 MST, "Dean Hoffman" wrote:

The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

He is a surgeon, not a virologist or epidemiologist, writing outside of his
area of expertise in a publication that has an axe to grind.

"Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on
when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case
capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would
mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity."

This is speculation, and it's probably wrong. My speculation — and I'm not a
virologist or epidemiologist either — is that many people have overestimated
the ratio of silent (unconfirmed) infections from the beginning. There's been
a lot of wishful thinking about this virus, and some of it has come from
people posing as experts.

On 2021-02-20 at 10:47:24 MST, ""Rod Speed"" wrote:

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota's CIDRAP, has pointed out
that rosy predictions about herd immunity were blown out of the water by what
happened in prisons, where the virus didn't slow down until nearly all the
prisoners had been infected.

On 2/21/2021 3:31 AM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-20 at 10:47:24 MST, ""Rod Speed"" wrote:

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota's CIDRAP, has pointed out
that rosy predictions about herd immunity were blown out of the water by what
happened in prisons, where the virus didn't slow down until nearly all the
prisoners had been infected.




A captive population is not a good sampling group for measuring any sort
of prediction.

--
Maggie

"Muggles" wrote in message ...
On 2/21/2021 3:31 AM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-20 at 10:47:24 MST, ""Rod Speed""
wrote:

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota's CIDRAP, has pointed
out
that rosy predictions about herd immunity were blown out of the water by
what
happened in prisons, where the virus didn't slow down until nearly all
the
prisoners had been infected.

A captive population is not a good sampling group for measuring any sort
of prediction.

That’s bull**** with the question of whether herd immunity works.

It is in fact the best group to use for measuring that.