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#81
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
In article ,
Han wrote: " wrote in : So what? How many dummies went long on tulips? Now you are really going back centuries. But it is a good example of speculators suckering people. Very good and the fact that it goes back centuries is an good indication that this isn't something that is new or even unusual. -- People thought cybersex was a safe alternative, until patients started presenting with sexually acquired carpal tunnel syndrome.-Howard Berkowitz |
#82
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
On 22 Mar 2012 23:36:58 GMT, Han wrote:
" wrote in : So what? How many dummies went long on tulips? Now you are really going back centuries. But it is a good example of speculators suckering people. Nothing new under the sun? |
#83
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
" wrote in
: On 22 Mar 2012 23:36:58 GMT, Han wrote: " wrote in m: So what? How many dummies went long on tulips? Now you are really going back centuries. But it is a good example of speculators suckering people. Nothing new under the sun? See, it was always a solar thing ... But my wife's hyacinths are in full bloom, and so is the forsythia ... -- Best regards Han email address is invalid |
#84
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
On 22 Mar 2012 23:54:29 GMT, Han wrote:
" wrote in : On 22 Mar 2012 23:36:58 GMT, Han wrote: " wrote in : So what? How many dummies went long on tulips? Now you are really going back centuries. But it is a good example of speculators suckering people. Nothing new under the sun? See, it was always a solar thing ... But my wife's hyacinths are in full bloom, and so is the forsythia ... Everything was about a month early here (my cherry tree bloomed in mid-February). Earlier this week the pollen count was 9369! I don't think I have allergies but I've been sick for three weeks and Cefdinir doesn't seem to have done a thing. |
#85
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
" wrote in
: On 22 Mar 2012 23:54:29 GMT, Han wrote: " wrote in m: On 22 Mar 2012 23:36:58 GMT, Han wrote: " wrote in m: So what? How many dummies went long on tulips? Now you are really going back centuries. But it is a good example of speculators suckering people. Nothing new under the sun? See, it was always a solar thing ... But my wife's hyacinths are in full bloom, and so is the forsythia ... Everything was about a month early here (my cherry tree bloomed in mid-February). Earlier this week the pollen count was 9369! I don't think I have allergies but I've been sick for three weeks and Cefdinir doesn't seem to have done a thing. According to google that's an antibiotic, so it shouldn't do much if anything for allergies. Maybe you mean Zyrtec, or ceterizine? I go and hand over my driver's license and get ceterizine-D. That works for me, but my new doctor told me to watch out, it makes you less careful, so check your reactions before driving ... Nothing happened, but I did notice ... -- Best regards Han email address is invalid |
#86
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
On 23 Mar 2012 00:42:08 GMT, Han wrote:
" wrote in : On 22 Mar 2012 23:54:29 GMT, Han wrote: " wrote in : On 22 Mar 2012 23:36:58 GMT, Han wrote: " wrote in om: So what? How many dummies went long on tulips? Now you are really going back centuries. But it is a good example of speculators suckering people. Nothing new under the sun? See, it was always a solar thing ... But my wife's hyacinths are in full bloom, and so is the forsythia ... Everything was about a month early here (my cherry tree bloomed in mid-February). Earlier this week the pollen count was 9369! I don't think I have allergies but I've been sick for three weeks and Cefdinir doesn't seem to have done a thing. According to google that's an antibiotic, so it shouldn't do much if anything for allergies. Maybe you mean Zyrtec, or ceterizine? I go and hand over my driver's license and get ceterizine-D. That works for me, but my new doctor told me to watch out, it makes you less careful, so check your reactions before driving ... Nothing happened, but I did notice ... No, I meant Cefdinir (I was reading the bottle ;-). I've never had big problems with allergies before so the doc is treating the chest, throat, sinuses, and ears, with the antibiotic, except that it's not working. I only have a couple of days of it left. If it is bacterial it's tough stuff and will love it when if I stop taking the Cefdinir. If it's allergy, it'll last years longer. :-( |
#87
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
Country wrote:
Gas was about 15 cents more a gallon during part of the Bush administration than it is now. Does that mean that Bush wanted high energy prices too? Or should we chalk it up to his incredible incompetence like most other things he did? Yep, there was a spike in July of 2008, caused by the threatened oil shutdown in Nigera (our 3rd largest foreign oil supplier). Three months later, the price of gas had fallen to $1.61/gallon. Shortly thereafter, the new administration has presided over a steady climb in the price of gasoline. |
#88
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
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#89
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
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#91
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
Maybe we should have sent out bank account number, so that the deposed king
could send the L4,000,000 pounds that he was trying to get out of Nigeria? I remember getting the email. Christopher A. Young Learn more about Jesus www.lds.org .. "HeyBub" wrote in message ... Yep, there was a spike in July of 2008, caused by the threatened oil shutdown in Nigera (our 3rd largest foreign oil supplier). Three months later, the price of gas had fallen to $1.61/gallon. Shortly thereafter, the new administration has presided over a steady climb in the price of gasoline. |
#92
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
On 3/23/2012 6:51 AM, Han wrote:
z wrote in : On Thu, 22 Mar 2012 20:38:25 -0500, The Daring Dufas wrote: On 3/22/2012 7:53 PM, zzzzzzzzzz wrote: On 23 Mar 2012 00:42:08 GMT, wrote: z wrote in : On 22 Mar 2012 23:54:29 GMT, wrote: z wrote in : On 22 Mar 2012 23:36:58 GMT, wrote: z wrote in : So what? How many dummies went long on tulips? Now you are really going back centuries. But it is a good example of speculators suckering people. Nothing new under the sun? See, it was always a solar thing ... But my wife's hyacinths are in full bloom, and so is the forsythia ... Everything was about a month early here (my cherry tree bloomed in mid-February). Earlier this week the pollen count was 9369! I don't think I have allergies but I've been sick for three weeks and Cefdinir doesn't seem to have done a thing. According to google that's an antibiotic, so it shouldn't do much if anything for allergies. Maybe you mean Zyrtec, or ceterizine? I go and hand over my driver's license and get ceterizine-D. That works for me, but my new doctor told me to watch out, it makes you less careful, so check your reactions before driving ... Nothing happened, but I did notice ... No, I meant Cefdinir (I was reading the bottle ;-). I've never had big problems with allergies before so the doc is treating the chest, throat, sinuses, and ears, with the antibiotic, except that it's not working. I only have a couple of days of it left. If it is bacterial it's tough stuff and will love it when if I stop taking the Cefdinir. If it's allergy, it'll last years longer. :-( I used to get terrible sinus infections requiring antibiotics until one day out of desperation, I took the hose from my Hover vacuum cleaner and held it to my nose while running. I felt a couple of sharp painful tugs under my left eye and my sinuses were clear. After that day, I've never had another debilitating sinus infection. ^_^ No thanks. That sucks! LOL! To "treat" problems similar to that, when I take a shower, I sniff the hot water up my nose and then blow. Gets "stuff" out, and relieves some of the problems. Also gargling with Listerine-type stuff seems to help in reducing nasal runoff into my throat. Son-in-law had a bad cough etc a few weeks ago that developed into strep, with high(ish) fever. First antibiotic didn't help. Second did, but he was out more than a full week. He said he hadn't been this sick in all his life. Remember that if an antibiotic is going to work, it should do so within about 24 hours. If it isn't go back to a doctor. I've spoken to ear, nose and throat specialists telling them about my vacuum cleaner trick and they've told me that they have vacuum tubes that they use to clear clogged sinuses which are inserted into the nose of a patient. There are YouTube videos showing the procedure. ^_^ TDD |
#93
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
In article ,
Han wrote: To "treat" problems similar to that, when I take a shower, I sniff the hot water up my nose and then blow. Gets "stuff" out, and relieves some of the problems. Interesting... shower head as netti pot (grin) -- People thought cybersex was a safe alternative, until patients started presenting with sexually acquired carpal tunnel syndrome.-Howard Berkowitz |
#94
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
On 3/23/2012 7:30 AM, Kurt Ullman wrote:
In , wrote: To "treat" problems similar to that, when I take a shower, I sniff the hot water up my nose and then blow. Gets "stuff" out, and relieves some of the problems. Interesting... shower head as netti pot (grin) I snort water from the shower head too, it does help. ^_^ TDD |
#95
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
Well, put that on the list.
1) WD-40 2) Duct tape 3) Shop Vac Christopher A. Young Learn more about Jesus www.lds.org .. "The Daring Dufas" wrote in message ... I've spoken to ear, nose and throat specialists telling them about my vacuum cleaner trick and they've told me that they have vacuum tubes that they use to clear clogged sinuses which are inserted into the nose of a patient. There are YouTube videos showing the procedure. ^_^ TDD |
#96
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
" wrote in
: snip Which doesn't address the core issue, which is evidence to support the claim being made that it's speculators that are keeping up the price of oil. Let's define hedging as a legitimate way to cover your ass in case of (whatever), and gambling as betting without any basis that the price will go up or down. That are 2 ways that (IMO) are fine, morally. Then there is speculating, which in my lexicon has the meaning of buying something with inside information (Ahmadinejad told you he's closing the strait of Hormuz tomorrow), or some kind of market manipulation to give you an advantage that others don't have. Of course speculators, or hedging people can generate enough "nervousness" in the market to affect prices. In the case of oil, that WILL AFFECT the price of gasoline. Moreover, prices go up much easier and quicker than they go down. Now some of those things aren't really malice, but still have effects. snip It also goes directly against the theory that speculators are deliberately manipulating the oil futures market. Here's the data from the latest CFTC report from Mar 6: Long # % Short # % Producers/Users 256,000 51 16 330,000 52 21 Swap Dealers 125,000 17 8 324,000 29 20 Managed Money 255,000 85 16 46,000 32 3 Others req to report 141,000 60 9 114,000 47 7 eg large specs Total contracts outstanding is 1,580,000 which represents about 20 days worth of worldwide production. Long/Short is the number of contracts currently held # is the number of traders reporting in that position category % is the percentage of all the contracts outstanding that category represents You tell me how from any of that you can deduce that speculators are what is driving the price of oil. I'm sorry, but I can't figure out what this says. snip -- Best regards Han email address is invalid |
#97
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
On Mar 23, 3:26*pm, Han wrote:
" wrote : snip Which doesn't address the core issue, which is evidence to support the claim being made that it's speculators that are keeping up the price of oil. Let's define hedging as a legitimate way to cover your ass in case of (whatever), and gambling as betting without any basis that the price will go up or down. *That are 2 ways that (IMO) are fine, morally. *Then there is speculating, which in my lexicon has the meaning of buying something with inside information (Ahmadinejad told you he's closing the strait of Hormuz tomorrow), or some kind of market manipulation to give you an advantage that others don't have. Unfortunately your definiton of speculating is not consistent with any accepted definition. Neither the common usage nor the usage as defined in the futures markets require that a speculator have any inside information. Perhaps that's where you've gone wrong. A speculator as pertinent to this discussion is simply someone who takes a position in the futures market on the belief that the market is going to move one way or the other so that they can profit. A hedger is someone that enters the futures market to offset a risk they have in their business or financial interest. Examples: George thinks the price of soybeans is headed higher and wants to profit from it. He goes long 5 November futures contracts, covering 25,000 bushels. Stan, a farmer in Illinois, is happy with the current price of soybeans and doesn't want to risk it going down before he harvests and sells his crop. He sells 5 Novemeber futures contracts. Stan, the hedger has just transferred the risk to George, the speculator. Nothing at all to do with inside information, market manipulation or anything sinister. Of course speculators, or hedging people can generate enough "nervousness" in the market to affect prices. *In the case of oil, that WILL AFFECT the price of gasoline. *Moreover, prices go up much easier and quicker than they go down. Sure there is nervousness. If it's nervousness that's a problem, then we might as well just shut down all the worlds finanacial markets. The obvious problem with the nervousness makes oil go up theory is there are speculators and hedgers on BOTH sides of the market. There are speculators long and speculators short. So, for this "nervousness" to translate into marching prices up, somehow the ones on the long side would have to be doing one hell of a lot better job than the ones on the short side. And while the prices are being worked up through nervousness, the hedgers, ie oil producers, would have to decide not to take advantage of those prices going higher, ie they would have to sit on their hands instead of profitting by selling into the increased prices that they as producers should know are not real and sustainable. Instead, if at least some of them behave rationally, then as the prices try to move higher, they have difficulty doing so because the oil producers sell into the rally. You;d have speculators buying and the oil producers, the really smart money giving them all they want until they choke. You tell me how from any of that you can deduce that speculators are what is driving the price of oil. I'm sorry, but I can't figure out what this says. That was the whole point. lol Actually, wrapping screwed it all up. If you want, here's the CFTC Committment of Traders Report that shows the positions in all the futures markets held by anyone that has more than the reporting limit in number of contracts. http://www.cftc.gov/files/dea/cotarc...m_sf030612.htm Light sweet crude is the oil contract of interest. |
#98
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
Han wrote:
LOL! To "treat" problems similar to that, when I take a shower, I sniff the hot water up my nose and then blow. Gets "stuff" out, and relieves some of the problems. Also gargling with Listerine-type stuff seems to help in reducing nasal runoff into my throat. If you put water, hot or cold, up your nose you can die from an aquatic amoeba that eats your brain. "(CNN) -- It's eerie but it's true: Three people have died this summer after suffering rare infections from a waterborne amoeba that destroys the brain. " http://www.cnn.com/2011/HEALTH/08/17...ths/index.html |
#99
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
" wrote in
: On Mar 23, 3:26*pm, Han wrote: " wrote innews:2d3d35ae-85d : snip Which doesn't address the core issue, which is evidence to support the claim being made that it's speculators that are keeping up the price of oil. Let's define hedging as a legitimate way to cover your ass in case of (whatever), and gambling as betting without any basis that the price will go up or down. *That are 2 ways that (IMO) are fine, morally. *Then there is speculating, which in my lexicon has the meaning of buying something with inside information (Ahmadinejad told you he's closing the strait of Hormuz tomorrow), or some kind of market manipulation to give you an advantage that others don't have. Unfortunately your definiton of speculating is not consistent with any accepted definition. Neither the common usage nor the usage as defined in the futures markets require that a speculator have any inside information. Perhaps that's where you've gone wrong. A speculator as pertinent to this discussion is simply someone who takes a position in the futures market on the belief that the market is going to move one way or the other so that they can profit. A hedger is someone that enters the futures market to offset a risk they have in their business or financial interest. Examples: George thinks the price of soybeans is headed higher and wants to profit from it. He goes long 5 November futures contracts, covering 25,000 bushels. Stan, a farmer in Illinois, is happy with the current price of soybeans and doesn't want to risk it going down before he harvests and sells his crop. He sells 5 Novemeber futures contracts. Stan, the hedger has just transferred the risk to George, the speculator. Nothing at all to do with inside information, market manipulation or anything sinister. Yes, that is all fine by me. I know it happens and is totally above board. It is what I called hedging or betting, either or both. Of course speculators, or hedging people can generate enough "nervousness" in the market to affect prices. *In the case of oil, that WILL AFFECT the price of gasoline. *Moreover, prices go up much easier and quicker than they go down. Sure there is nervousness. If it's nervousness that's a problem, then we might as well just shut down all the worlds finanacial markets. The obvious problem with the nervousness makes oil go up theory is there are speculators and hedgers on BOTH sides of the market. There are speculators long and speculators short. So, for this "nervousness" to translate into marching prices up, somehow the ones on the long side would have to be doing one hell of a lot better job than the ones on the short side. And while the prices are being worked up through nervousness, the hedgers, ie oil producers, would have to decide not to take advantage of those prices going higher, ie they would have to sit on their hands instead of profitting by selling into the increased prices that they as producers should know are not real and sustainable. Instead, if at least some of them behave rationally, then as the prices try to move higher, they have difficulty doing so because the oil producers sell into the rally. You;d have speculators buying and the oil producers, the really smart money giving them all they want until they choke. Here we are getting closer to what might be a little "off" (I said "might"). Seems you are describing (among others) people who sort of hoard supplies (either on paper or in reality). Then the expectation of a higher price in the future is reinforced (positive feedback) by withholding (even if temporarily) supplies from the market. One would hope that there will be a downward correction because of an oversupply at the later time point. At the moment we are all waiting for the realization of an oversupply soon, either because China etc tank (not a real good prospect as this week's downturn of the Dow shows), or because the Iran threats fade, or the African troubles, etc. None of this is likely, so we are stuck (I think) at this higher level of gas prices because of geopolitical and geo-economic factors. You tell me how from any of that you can deduce that speculators are what is driving the price of oil. I'm sorry, but I can't figure out what this says. That was the whole point. lol Actually, wrapping screwed it all up. If you want, here's the CFTC Committment of Traders Report that shows the positions in all the futures markets held by anyone that has more than the reporting limit in number of contracts. http://www.cftc.gov/files/dea/cotarc...troleum_sf0306 12.htm Light sweet crude is the oil contract of interest. Thanks, but I firmly believe that won't show any of what I fear(ed). And there don't have to be conspiracies by "real bad guys"™ invoked either! I think that as far as oil is concerned, we're stuck with a system that exaggerates fear and tends to drive up prices because of geopolitical and geo-economic factors. As was reported today and recently, the fact that we are going much better and faster than any time since Nixon towards selfsufficiency in oil and gas is a good thing™, and it indeed started some time ago. In the mean time, striving to increase gas and oil availability should go hand in hand with conservation, efficiency and development of alternate fuels. But you knew already that I thought so. -- Best regards Han email address is invalid |
#100
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
"Han" wrote in message
... " wrote in And are you aware that the CFTC has limits on the size of the maximum positions that speculators are allowed in the futures markets? Limits that are designed to prevent any participant from being able to have a large impact on the market and are small compared to the size of the market? No, I didn't know that, and perhaps it's a good thing, right? You've gotten Trader to admit that there has to be regulation on free markets to prevent people from doing serious economic harm. Bravo, Han. (-: The numbers speak volumes about how different the current oil market is from 8 or 10 years ago: In a five year period, Masters said the amount of money institutional investors, hedge funds, and the big Wall Street banks had placed in the commodities markets went from $13 billion to $300 billion. Last year, 27 barrels of crude were being traded every day on the New York Mercantile Exchange for every one barrel of oil that was actually being consumed in the United States. source: http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-18560_162-4707770.html Twenty-seven speculative transactions for every barrel of oil actually consumed. Two thousand years ago the Romans realized the dangers of speculation in "lifeline" commodities and made certain attempts to rig market prices of grain punishable by death. In their time, the most important commodity was bread. In ours, it's oil. In its 2009 Trade and Development Report, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) contends that the massive in?ow of fund money has caused commodity futures markets to fail the "ef?cient market" hypothesis, as the purchase and sale of commodity futures by swap dealers and index funds is entirely unrelated to market supply and demand fundamentals, but depends rather on the funds' ability to attract subscribers.. source: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/...is-flawed.html What they're saying is that the current speculative environment is now entirely different than the one that originally evolved to limit risk to farmers and other commodity producers. Now it's overrun with investors looking to make a killing, not as a legitimate way to hedge risks. Where does the money they make come from? Your wallet at the gas pump. The higher speculators can drive prices for something vital to the economy (that people can't put off buying for very long) the more money they can make. When speculators make a killing, they can take those earnings and use them to drive up prices of other commodities. even further. -- Bobby G. |
#101
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
In article ,
"Robert Green" wrote: commodities markets went from $13 billion to $300 billion. Last year, 27 barrels of crude were being traded every day on the New York Mercantile Exchange for every one barrel of oil that was actually being consumed in the United States. source: http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-18560_162-4707770.html Since oil is fungible and a world-wide market, this is a bogus stat. The REALLY interesting one would how many are traded worldwide versus how many are use worldwide. -- People thought cybersex was a safe alternative, until patients started presenting with sexually acquired carpal tunnel syndrome.-Howard Berkowitz |
#102
Posted to alt.home.repair
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
Kurt Ullman wrote in
m: In article , "Robert Green" wrote: commodities markets went from $13 billion to $300 billion. Last year, 27 barrels of crude were being traded every day on the New York Mercantile Exchange for every one barrel of oil that was actually being consumed in the United States. source: http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-18560_162-4707770.html Since oil is fungible and a world-wide market, this is a bogus stat. The REALLY interesting one would how many are traded worldwide versus how many are use worldwide. I had to look up fungible, and I'm not sure I fully understand anything more than a version of "easily substituted". Statistics are always suspect, since we usually don't know all the premises and limitations to the calculations. But bogus is too strong a word, IMO. Nevertheless, since the US share of the world oil market is in the order of 25%, substantially more than the ~4% as the 27-fold multiple of trades over uses of 1 barrel suggests, the much repeated selling of that same barrel of oil seems excessive. In the aggregate and on average such trading cannot possibly reduce the average price of oil, since every trade costs something. So, yes the trading functions a bit to hedge and keep the prices in a free market range, but that range is increased by the speculation. -- Best regards Han email address is invalid |
#103
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
On Mar 24, 8:44*am, Han wrote:
Kurt Ullman wrote innews:HsednRKmoOIBI_DSnZ2dnUVZ_vydnZ2d@earthlink. com: In article , *"Robert Green" wrote: commodities markets went from $13 billion to $300 billion. Last year, 27 barrels of crude were being traded every day on the New York Mercantile Exchange for every one barrel of oil that was actually being consumed in the United States. *source: http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-18560_162-4707770.html * *Since oil is fungible and a world-wide market, *this is a bogus * *stat. The REALLY interesting one would how many are traded worldwide versus how many are use worldwide. I had to look up fungible, and I'm not sure I fully understand anything more than a version of "easily substituted". *Statistics are always suspect, since we usually don't know all the premises and limitations to the calculations. *But bogus is too strong a word, IMO. Nevertheless, since the US share of the world oil market is in the order of 25%, substantially more than the ~4% as the 27-fold multiple of trades over uses of 1 barrel suggests, the much repeated selling of that same barrel of oil seems excessive. *In the aggregate and on average such trading cannot possibly reduce the average price of oil, since every trade costs something. So, yes the trading functions a bit to hedge and keep the prices in a free market range, but that range is increased by the speculation. And your definitive proof for that would be? Crickets. Have you ever traded a single futures contract? I can just as easily make a case that speculation decreases the range. Again, there are speculators ON BOTH SIDES, LONG and SHORT. You raised the example of rumors moving the market. Let's say oil was at $100 and some rumor starts moving it to $103. There are speculators that have been around for decades. They know that most of these rumors are just that, rumors. So, seeing it move up $3, they now have an opportunity to short it, expecting it to move back down. Later in the day, the price settles back to $102 and the speculator covers the short, taking his profit. That action lessens the price move. It's also what a huge amount of that volume is all about. Regarding daily volume in futures, you've got it all wrong. First, the CBS comparison of futures volume versus US usage, as Kurt pointed out, is totally bogus. Oil is a worldwide market, people use oil all over the world. Participants in the US futures market are all over the world and they will continue to be, unless we let you drive them out. In which case, the business will just move to a more friendly country where perhaps it will be less regulated. How would you like that? If you compare the futures volume to worldwide production, about a weeks worth of contracts change hands each day. So, for CBS, the correct ratio is not 27:1 but more like 7:1. Now it's kind of odd that someone who AFAIK has never traded a single futures contract of any kind would know what the "right" volume should be. But tell us, what is the right number from your magic ball? What you have backwards here is that volume is a bad thing. It's a very good thing that leads to efficient pricing and liquidity. Let's say you need to sell 1000 shares of a stock first thing Monday morning. Which market would you rather that stock be in? The pink sheets of stocks where if you're lucky, they might trade a few thousand shares a day? Or would you want it to be one of the NASDAQ stocks where they do millions of shares a day? In the latter case, you could enter a market order, have it filled in a second at a fair price. Try that in the other market and see what happens. The more activity you have in a trading environment, the better. |
#104
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
" wrote in
: On Mar 24, 8:44*am, Han wrote: Kurt Ullman wrote innews:HsednRKmoOIBI_DSnZ2dnUVZ_ : In article , *"Robert Green" wrote: commodities markets went from $13 billion to $300 billion. Last year, 27 barrels of crude were being traded every day on the New York Mercantile Exchange for every one barrel of oil that was actually being consumed in the United States. *source: http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-18560_162-4707770.html * *Since oil is fungible and a world-wide market, *this is a bogu s * *stat. The REALLY interesting one would how many are traded worldwide versus how many are use worldwide. I had to look up fungible, and I'm not sure I fully understand anything more than a version of "easily substituted". *Statistics are always suspect, since we usually don't know all the premises and limitations to the calculations. *But bogus is too strong a word, IMO. Nevertheless, since the US share of the world oil market is in the order of 25%, substantially more than the ~4% as the 27-fold multiple of trades over uses of 1 barrel suggests, the much repeated selling of that same barrel of oil seems excessive. *In the aggregate and on average such trading cannot possibly reduce the average price of oil, since every trade costs something. So, yes the trading functions a bit to hedge and keep the prices in a free market range, but that range is increased by the speculation. And your definitive proof for that would be? Crickets. Have you ever traded a single futures contract? I can just as easily make a case that speculation decreases the range. Again, there are speculators ON BOTH SIDES, LONG and SHORT. You raised the example of rumors moving the market. Let's say oil was at $100 and some rumor starts moving it to $103. There are speculators that have been around for decades. They know that most of these rumors are just that, rumors. So, seeing it move up $3, they now have an opportunity to short it, expecting it to move back down. Later in the day, the price settles back to $102 and the speculator covers the short, taking his profit. That action lessens the price move. It's also what a huge amount of that volume is all about. Regarding daily volume in futures, you've got it all wrong. First, the CBS comparison of futures volume versus US usage, as Kurt pointed out, is totally bogus. Oil is a worldwide market, people use oil all over the world. Participants in the US futures market are all over the world and they will continue to be, unless we let you drive them out. In which case, the business will just move to a more friendly country where perhaps it will be less regulated. How would you like that? If you compare the futures volume to worldwide production, about a weeks worth of contracts change hands each day. So, for CBS, the correct ratio is not 27:1 but more like 7:1. Now it's kind of odd that someone who AFAIK has never traded a single futures contract of any kind would know what the "right" volume should be. But tell us, what is the right number from your magic ball? What you have backwards here is that volume is a bad thing. It's a very good thing that leads to efficient pricing and liquidity. Let's say you need to sell 1000 shares of a stock first thing Monday morning. Which market would you rather that stock be in? The pink sheets of stocks where if you're lucky, they might trade a few thousand shares a day? Or would you want it to be one of the NASDAQ stocks where they do millions of shares a day? In the latter case, you could enter a market order, have it filled in a second at a fair price. Try that in the other market and see what happens. The more activity you have in a trading environment, the better. I am focusing on the example you give above. The rumor that ups the price to $103, the speculator shorting it, and then the price falling back to $102, from the initial $100. Seems to me there is a net increase in this example and also a cost of trading. Or is all that trading back and forth free? It may be a small amount, but there is a cost, and it all adds up. Maybe that is why the price always goes up fast, and comes down slow. And you're right, I am leery of sticking my neck out and going into futures. So I know nothing about it ... -- Best regards Han email address is invalid |
#105
Posted to alt.home.repair
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
On 23 Mar 2012 11:51:19 GMT, Han wrote:
" wrote in : On Thu, 22 Mar 2012 20:38:25 -0500, The Daring Dufas wrote: On 3/22/2012 7:53 PM, zzzzzzzzzz wrote: On 23 Mar 2012 00:42:08 GMT, wrote: z wrote in : On 22 Mar 2012 23:54:29 GMT, wrote: z wrote in : On 22 Mar 2012 23:36:58 GMT, wrote: z wrote in : So what? How many dummies went long on tulips? Now you are really going back centuries. But it is a good example of speculators suckering people. Nothing new under the sun? See, it was always a solar thing ... But my wife's hyacinths are in full bloom, and so is the forsythia ... Everything was about a month early here (my cherry tree bloomed in mid-February). Earlier this week the pollen count was 9369! I don't think I have allergies but I've been sick for three weeks and Cefdinir doesn't seem to have done a thing. According to google that's an antibiotic, so it shouldn't do much if anything for allergies. Maybe you mean Zyrtec, or ceterizine? I go and hand over my driver's license and get ceterizine-D. That works for me, but my new doctor told me to watch out, it makes you less careful, so check your reactions before driving ... Nothing happened, but I did notice ... No, I meant Cefdinir (I was reading the bottle ;-). I've never had big problems with allergies before so the doc is treating the chest, throat, sinuses, and ears, with the antibiotic, except that it's not working. I only have a couple of days of it left. If it is bacterial it's tough stuff and will love it when if I stop taking the Cefdinir. If it's allergy, it'll last years longer. :-( I used to get terrible sinus infections requiring antibiotics until one day out of desperation, I took the hose from my Hover vacuum cleaner and held it to my nose while running. I felt a couple of sharp painful tugs under my left eye and my sinuses were clear. After that day, I've never had another debilitating sinus infection. ^_^ No thanks. That sucks! LOL! To "treat" problems similar to that, when I take a shower, I sniff the hot water up my nose and then blow. Gets "stuff" out, and relieves some of the problems. Also gargling with Listerine-type stuff seems to help in reducing nasal runoff into my throat. I've used just saline nose drops, in the past. It works well for cleaning the nose out, too. It's a lot less painful than "Hoovering" the nose, I would think! ;-) The doc gave me a steroid nose spray, today, and changed the antibiotic. This one is weird; two the first day, then one a day for four. He said it says in the system for ten days after. We'll see if it can knock this thing out. Son-in-law had a bad cough etc a few weeks ago that developed into strep, with high(ish) fever. First antibiotic didn't help. Second did, but he was out more than a full week. He said he hadn't been this sick in all his life. Remember that if an antibiotic is going to work, it should do so within about 24 hours. If it isn't go back to a doctor. Actually, most of the congestion and drip is gone. I still have sinus pressure, something going on with the ears, and can't talk, very little drip and I'm not coughing up anything. The doc told me that, with the new antibiotic, it should be 50% better in four or five days, or come back. I won't be back in town until next Saturday, maybe, so... |
#106
Posted to alt.home.repair
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
On Fri, 23 Mar 2012 07:15:42 -0500, The Daring Dufas
wrote: On 3/23/2012 6:51 AM, Han wrote: z wrote in : On Thu, 22 Mar 2012 20:38:25 -0500, The Daring Dufas wrote: On 3/22/2012 7:53 PM, zzzzzzzzzz wrote: On 23 Mar 2012 00:42:08 GMT, wrote: z wrote in : On 22 Mar 2012 23:54:29 GMT, wrote: z wrote in : On 22 Mar 2012 23:36:58 GMT, wrote: z wrote in : So what? How many dummies went long on tulips? Now you are really going back centuries. But it is a good example of speculators suckering people. Nothing new under the sun? See, it was always a solar thing ... But my wife's hyacinths are in full bloom, and so is the forsythia ... Everything was about a month early here (my cherry tree bloomed in mid-February). Earlier this week the pollen count was 9369! I don't think I have allergies but I've been sick for three weeks and Cefdinir doesn't seem to have done a thing. According to google that's an antibiotic, so it shouldn't do much if anything for allergies. Maybe you mean Zyrtec, or ceterizine? I go and hand over my driver's license and get ceterizine-D. That works for me, but my new doctor told me to watch out, it makes you less careful, so check your reactions before driving ... Nothing happened, but I did notice ... No, I meant Cefdinir (I was reading the bottle ;-). I've never had big problems with allergies before so the doc is treating the chest, throat, sinuses, and ears, with the antibiotic, except that it's not working. I only have a couple of days of it left. If it is bacterial it's tough stuff and will love it when if I stop taking the Cefdinir. If it's allergy, it'll last years longer. :-( I used to get terrible sinus infections requiring antibiotics until one day out of desperation, I took the hose from my Hover vacuum cleaner and held it to my nose while running. I felt a couple of sharp painful tugs under my left eye and my sinuses were clear. After that day, I've never had another debilitating sinus infection. ^_^ No thanks. That sucks! LOL! To "treat" problems similar to that, when I take a shower, I sniff the hot water up my nose and then blow. Gets "stuff" out, and relieves some of the problems. Also gargling with Listerine-type stuff seems to help in reducing nasal runoff into my throat. Son-in-law had a bad cough etc a few weeks ago that developed into strep, with high(ish) fever. First antibiotic didn't help. Second did, but he was out more than a full week. He said he hadn't been this sick in all his life. Remember that if an antibiotic is going to work, it should do so within about 24 hours. If it isn't go back to a doctor. I've spoken to ear, nose and throat specialists telling them about my vacuum cleaner trick and they've told me that they have vacuum tubes that they use to clear clogged sinuses which are inserted into the nose of a patient. There are YouTube videos showing the procedure. ^_^ Having the EN&T specialist play around in there sounds a lot safer for the ear drum, and some other delicate machinery in there, than a quick pass with the Hoover. |
#107
Posted to alt.home.repair
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
On Fri, 23 Mar 2012 17:46:39 -0500, "HeyBub" wrote:
Han wrote: LOL! To "treat" problems similar to that, when I take a shower, I sniff the hot water up my nose and then blow. Gets "stuff" out, and relieves some of the problems. Also gargling with Listerine-type stuff seems to help in reducing nasal runoff into my throat. If you put water, hot or cold, up your nose you can die from an aquatic amoeba that eats your brain. "(CNN) -- It's eerie but it's true: Three people have died this summer after suffering rare infections from a waterborne amoeba that destroys the brain. " http://www.cnn.com/2011/HEALTH/08/17...ths/index.html Well, at least *NOW* we have an explanation for Democrats. |
#108
Posted to alt.home.repair
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
On 3/24/2012 3:54 PM, zzzzzzzzzz wrote:
On Fri, 23 Mar 2012 07:15:42 -0500, The Daring Dufas wrote: On 3/23/2012 6:51 AM, Han wrote: z wrote in : On Thu, 22 Mar 2012 20:38:25 -0500, The Daring Dufas wrote: On 3/22/2012 7:53 PM, zzzzzzzzzz wrote: On 23 Mar 2012 00:42:08 GMT, wrote: z wrote in : On 22 Mar 2012 23:54:29 GMT, wrote: z wrote in : On 22 Mar 2012 23:36:58 GMT, wrote: z wrote in : So what? How many dummies went long on tulips? Now you are really going back centuries. But it is a good example of speculators suckering people. Nothing new under the sun? See, it was always a solar thing ... But my wife's hyacinths are in full bloom, and so is the forsythia ... Everything was about a month early here (my cherry tree bloomed in mid-February). Earlier this week the pollen count was 9369! I don't think I have allergies but I've been sick for three weeks and Cefdinir doesn't seem to have done a thing. According to google that's an antibiotic, so it shouldn't do much if anything for allergies. Maybe you mean Zyrtec, or ceterizine? I go and hand over my driver's license and get ceterizine-D. That works for me, but my new doctor told me to watch out, it makes you less careful, so check your reactions before driving ... Nothing happened, but I did notice ... No, I meant Cefdinir (I was reading the bottle ;-). I've never had big problems with allergies before so the doc is treating the chest, throat, sinuses, and ears, with the antibiotic, except that it's not working. I only have a couple of days of it left. If it is bacterial it's tough stuff and will love it when if I stop taking the Cefdinir. If it's allergy, it'll last years longer. :-( I used to get terrible sinus infections requiring antibiotics until one day out of desperation, I took the hose from my Hover vacuum cleaner and held it to my nose while running. I felt a couple of sharp painful tugs under my left eye and my sinuses were clear. After that day, I've never had another debilitating sinus infection. ^_^ No thanks. That sucks! LOL! To "treat" problems similar to that, when I take a shower, I sniff the hot water up my nose and then blow. Gets "stuff" out, and relieves some of the problems. Also gargling with Listerine-type stuff seems to help in reducing nasal runoff into my throat. Son-in-law had a bad cough etc a few weeks ago that developed into strep, with high(ish) fever. First antibiotic didn't help. Second did, but he was out more than a full week. He said he hadn't been this sick in all his life. Remember that if an antibiotic is going to work, it should do so within about 24 hours. If it isn't go back to a doctor. I've spoken to ear, nose and throat specialists telling them about my vacuum cleaner trick and they've told me that they have vacuum tubes that they use to clear clogged sinuses which are inserted into the nose of a patient. There are YouTube videos showing the procedure. ^_^ Having the EN&T specialist play around in there sounds a lot safer for the ear drum, and some other delicate machinery in there, than a quick pass with the Hoover. All I know is from my own personal experience. It works, your eyes may sink into your skull a bit but will eventually pop back out the first time you experience any constipation. ^_^ TDD |
#109
Posted to alt.home.repair
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
On Mar 24, 10:53*am, Han wrote:
" wrote : On Mar 24, 8:44*am, Han wrote: Kurt Ullman wrote innews:HsednRKmoOIBI_DSnZ2dnUVZ_ : In article , *"Robert Green" wrote: commodities markets went from $13 billion to $300 billion. Last year, 27 barrels of crude were being traded every day on the New York Mercantile Exchange for every one barrel of oil that was actually being consumed in the United States. *source: http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-18560_162-4707770.html * *Since oil is fungible and a world-wide market, *this is a bogu s * *stat. The REALLY interesting one would how many are traded worldwide versus how many are use worldwide. I had to look up fungible, and I'm not sure I fully understand anything more than a version of "easily substituted". *Statistics are always suspect, since we usually don't know all the premises and limitations to the calculations. *But bogus is too strong a word, IMO. Nevertheless, since the US share of the world oil market is in the order of 25%, substantially more than the ~4% as the 27-fold multiple of trades over uses of 1 barrel suggests, the much repeated selling of that same barrel of oil seems excessive. *In the aggregate and on average such trading cannot possibly reduce the average price of oil, since every trade costs something. So, yes the trading functions a bit to hedge and keep the prices in a free market range, but that range is increased by the speculation. And your definitive proof for that would be? * Crickets. Have you ever traded a single futures contract? *I can just as easily make a case that speculation decreases the range. Again, there are speculators ON BOTH SIDES, LONG and SHORT. * You raised the example of rumors moving the market. *Let's say oil was at $100 and some rumor starts moving it to $103. * There are speculators that have been around for decades. *They know that most of these rumors are just that, rumors. *So, seeing it move up $3, they now have an opportunity to short it, expecting it to move back down. * Later in the day, the price settles back to $102 and the speculator covers the short, taking his profit. That action lessens the price move. *It's also what a huge amount of that volume is all about. Regarding daily volume in futures, you've got it all wrong. First, the CBS comparison of futures volume versus US usage, as Kurt pointed out, is totally bogus. *Oil is a worldwide market, people use oil all over the world. *Participants in the US futures market are all over the world and they will continue to be, unless we let you drive them out. *In which case, the business will just move to a more friendly country where perhaps it will be less regulated. How would you like that? If you compare the futures volume to worldwide production, about a weeks worth of contracts change hands each day. So, for CBS, the correct ratio is not 27:1 but more like 7:1. Now it's kind of odd that someone who AFAIK has never traded a single futures contract of any kind would know what the "right" volume should be. *But tell us, what is the right number from your magic ball? What you have backwards here is that volume is a bad thing. *It's a very good thing that leads to efficient pricing and liquidity. * Let's say you need to sell 1000 shares of a stock first thing Monday morning. *Which market would you rather that stock be in? *The pink sheets of stocks where if you're lucky, they might trade a few thousand shares a day? * Or would you want it to be one of the NASDAQ stocks where they do millions of shares a day? In the latter case, you could enter a market order, have it filled in a second at a fair price. *Try that in the other market and see what happens. The more activity you have in a trading environment, the better. I am focusing on the example you give above. *The rumor that ups the price to $103, the speculator shorting it, and then the price falling back to $102, from the initial $100. *Seems to me there is a net increase in this example and also a cost of trading. Sure there is a net increase. So, what? In the example, the market reacted to some rumor and moved up $3 for a brief period going to $103 from $100. The speculators/ traders figure the rumor is likely overblown, bogus whatever and see an opportunity to profit because they figure the price will be coming right back down. They short it at $103 and a few hours later as the price is going down, they cover it at $102 taking there profit. The price could continue to go down to $100. Or the price could go to $96 because now all the dummies that believed the rumor are selling. None of that matters. The point here is that this is an example of a common situation where the specs, through their actions, are mitigating the price rise caused by the rumor. If you didn't have the specs taking the opportunity to profit by trading against the rumor, the price could have gone to $104, $105, etc. on the rumor. These same specs provide the liquidity so that there is someone there ready and willing to take the other side of any order that shows up without it impacting price much. *Or is all that trading back and forth free? *It may be a small amount, but there is a cost, and it all adds up. *Maybe that is why the price always goes up fast, and comes down slow. The cost of doing that trade for a pro, say a floor trader is a couple bucks per contract. Even for a small retail trader it can be done for $12. So, the transaction cost of a few bucks on $100,000 worth of oil isn't a factor. And whatever the cost, for that type of trade, it's coming out of the pocket of the speculator, not any oil producer or consumer. A spec scalping like that could be in and out of the market 20 times in a day. United Airlines or XYZ oil is going to go long or short and and hold it for months so their transaction cost is almost zilch. And you're right, I am leery of sticking my neck out and going into futures. *So I know nothing about it ... -- Then why do you buy into the nonsense that it's speculators that are driving up the price of oil as opposed to supply and demand? Best regards Han email address is invalid- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - |
#110
Posted to alt.home.repair
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
In article ,
" wrote: The doc gave me a steroid nose spray, today, and changed the antibiotic. This one is weird; two the first day, then one a day for four. He said it says in the system for ten days after. We'll see if it can knock this thing out. Sounds like a Z-pack. My kid thinks they are a wonder drug for sinus infections. -- People thought cybersex was a safe alternative, until patients started presenting with sexually acquired carpal tunnel syndrome.-Howard Berkowitz |
#111
Posted to alt.home.repair
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
In article ,
"Robert Green" wrote: It's not bogus, it's simply limited in scope. Not every statistic has to look at the entire universe to make a valid point. Just those that try to make a universal point. So limited in scope as to be valueless/ The figures presented here indicate that oil speculation has increased measurably and dramatically in the last ten years. Or is that a point that's really in dispute? People who speculate in commodities will assure you it's a wonderful thing that helps everyone but it has some pretty serious downsides when things go wrong. It's also now far less of a hedging risk tool than a way to make a quick profit. Nope, but the actual impact on the worldwide market and oil prices is still not exactly settled. The refutation to Krugman's article on speculation made it pretty clear that there is virtually no way to get to the numbers you want because of record-keeping issues. How do you calculate the tendency of people to keep their gas tanks as full as possible during gasoline shortages? There are any number of places in the supply chain that can hold inventory that aren't easily accounted for. Which is beside the point. All we are (supposedly) looking at is oil deliveries versus oil contracts. All of that takes into account such things because the deliveries don't get made if they aren't needed. intellectually bankrupt. The people that claim that there's no price rise involved when speculators enter the market and drive up demand must have slept through the supply and demand part of Econ 101. It seems they especially don't understand price ratcheting and price stickiness if they think the effect of speculation "balances out" in the long run. Look at the speculation in homes. That ratcheted up home prices substantially and only now are they beginning to return to reality. But oil futures should also have no real effect on oil prices unless the contracts are actually being fulfilled. Fulfilling them is what takes the oil of the market and is reflective of the demand. The really interesting stat would be how well they reflect the spot demand or other prices of the actual commodity. Without true competition firms rarely lower prices even when production costs decrease or demand drops. Cheaper production costs usually leads to companies taking the difference as profit, and when demand slacks off they are more likely to try to hold prices constant, while cutting production, than to lower them. That's why Exxon & friends have posted record profits. So dreaming that "drill, baby, drill" is going to counter decades of increasing demand and ratcheting prices is pipe dreaming. Especially with a cartel like OPEC that can simply cut back on production when they feel they're selling their oil too cheaply. That hasn't been the case. One of the more interesting (and overlooked if not actively ignored issues) is that the oil companies have very stable profit margins. So, they make pretty much the same %age on gasoline no matter their costs are. But that also means that the actual profit made fluctuates according to the price. But to suggest not drilling won't have an impact on prices is valid? How is it that the oil decisions of OPEC have such great impact, but ours won't? -- People thought cybersex was a safe alternative, until patients started presenting with sexually acquired carpal tunnel syndrome.-Howard Berkowitz |
#112
Posted to alt.home.repair
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
On Sun, 25 Mar 2012 08:41:02 -0400, Kurt Ullman wrote:
In article , " wrote: The doc gave me a steroid nose spray, today, and changed the antibiotic. This one is weird; two the first day, then one a day for four. He said it says in the system for ten days after. We'll see if it can knock this thing out. Sounds like a Z-pack. My kid thinks they are a wonder drug for sinus infections. Yeah, I think that's what the doc called it. The antibiotic is Azithromycin on a pop-out card, with the pills marked for days. On day two, my ears and throat still feel like ground beef. |
#113
Posted to alt.home.repair
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
wrote in message ... The sad thing is that most people forget the one-to-one relationship between hedgers and speculators Agree with the essence and thrust of your argument. But to be correct, the above part isn't true. There isn't necessarily a one to one relationship between hedgers and speculators. Let's say one new contract is being created by a buyer and seller meeting in the pit. It could be a spec on one side, spec on the other. A spec on one side, hedger on the other. Or it could be a hedger on one side and a hedger on the other side. Good point I missed that A speculator on speculator cancels itself out Why ? Because they are BOTH speculating one against the other That is true. But the libs in their quest to demonize speculators fail to acknowledge that there are also speculators on the short side and their presence tends to push prices LOWER. CBS didn't bring it up. Perhaps it's just that they are too dumb to understand it or too lazy to learn. More likely it's because the real motive is to blame specs and business in general, the facts be damned. The speculator-hedger relationship is the one that is ignored. Both for political and ideological reasons Exactly. When United Airlines comes into the market to hedge it's a good thing that there are specs waiting to take the other side. Demonizing the speculator is a waste of time and a cheap attempt to distract from other MORE CRITICAL AND IMPORTANT ISSUES It's not different from people blaming guns for crime. It only helps to distract from the REAL PROBLEMS that are NOT being addressed.- Hide quoted text - Well said! |
#114
Posted to alt.home.repair
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*YOU* are responsible for high gas prices
"HeyBub" wrote in
news John Carter wrote: "Stormin Mormon" wrote in : Gee, and all this time I thought it was cause B. Hussein was denying permits to drill and process oil. Christopher A. Young Learn more about Jesus www.lds.org . snip The President gas NOTHING to do with the price of gasoline. Don't you remember back in the previous administration when gasprices were going up, all the experts on FOX news stated that the Shrub as president did NOT have the ability to affect the price of gasoline? No, I don't remember that and am skeptical it ever happened. Can you provide a link? Well these are Youtube clips that should relieve your skepticism: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfzZjc_OMyw http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTvom...eature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YISH...eature=related Sorry, but you can't have it both ways. |
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