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Rod Speed Rod Speed is offline
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Default Herd Immunity in April?



wrote in message
...
On Mon, 22 Feb 2021 06:22:47 -0800 (PST), trader_4
wrote:

On Sunday, February 21, 2021 at 5:55:45 PM UTC-5, wrote:
On Sun, 21 Feb 2021 11:52:41 -0700, rbowman
wrote:
On 02/21/2021 02:31 AM, Neill Massello wrote:
On 2021-02-20 at 10:47:24 MST, ""Rod Speed""
wrote:

We already know that there is **** all herd immunity in the
places stupid enough to just let the virus rip like Sweden.

Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota's CIDRAP, has
pointed out
that rosy predictions about herd immunity were blown out of the water
by what
happened in prisons, where the virus didn't slow down until nearly
all the
prisoners had been infected.




otoh, the Marion facility in Ohio had around 2000 positive cases, most
of which were asymptomatic. I could never get hard figures on the
deaths
but despite having an aging prison population they were minimal. Had
the
cells been filled with dying prisoners the media would have been all
over it.
Since the US Covid survival rate is ~99.8%


IDK where you got that number. I see 500K dead, 28 mil cases,
that's 1.7%. Even if you account for some number of cases never
identified, I don't see any credible sources saying the death rate is
only 0.2%. Not here or anywhere.


It is based on a projection of the number of people who got
Covid, got better spontaneously and were never tested.


So a number straight from someone's arse.

I can't find the article right now but it was based
on positive antibody tests in people who never
presented at a doctor or went to a hospital.


Don't believe that with your 10:1 ratio.

I suppose Bowman's observation about the fatalities
or lack thereof at Marion tends to verify that.


Nope, the demographics and exposure there are totally different.
That's why the Marion data was such dramatic news, stupid.

Three or 4 dead inmates is not going to make the news. Forty would.


Pity about the demographics.