On 2021-02-20 at 05:37:10 MST, "Dean Hoffman" wrote:

The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

He is a surgeon, not a virologist or epidemiologist, writing outside of his
area of expertise in a publication that has an axe to grind.

"Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on
when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case
capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would
mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity."

This is speculation, and it's probably wrong. My speculation €” and I'm not a
virologist or epidemiologist either €” is that many people have overestimated
the ratio of silent (unconfirmed) infections from the beginning. There's been
a lot of wishful thinking about this virus, and some of it has come from
people posing as experts.