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trader_4 trader_4 is offline
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Default Herd Immunity in April?

On Saturday, February 20, 2021 at 7:37:13 AM UTC-5, wrote:
The author is a professor at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731


He may be a professor, but much of what he says doesn't conform to
obvious reality. Like this:

""But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didnt suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. "

Traveling, family gatherings, parties, shopping, etc all increased dramatically from
Thanksgiving through XMas. Many people didn;t give a damn and refused to comply
with requests to limit gatherings. So why wouldn't that be a big part, probably the
dominant reason why new cases peaked around Jan 8? There was a rapid decline
last spring too, when infection rates were still low and there was no possibility at
all of heard immunity. As soon as we reduced emergency measures, it took off
again, peaking in July, again, that cycle had nothing to do with heard immunity.
This last up cycle looks like more of the same to me. Part of the decline can
certainly be attributed to more people having already had it and to the vaccines,
but to attribute it only to that is ridiculous. He also states falsely that people
who have had it have great immunity and that if they do get it again, they don't
have severe cases. I read about documented cases where people got infected
again within six weeks or so of having recovered. Two cases in particular, they
had far more severe cases the second time and died. IDK what the overall data
is, but he flat out stated that the second time isn't as severe.