"Dave Liquorice" wrote in message
idual.net...
On Mon, 2 Dec 2019 14:03:13 +1100, Ray wrote:

... flu ...

Not been a really nasty or virulent strain for 50 odd years. Asian
in
the late 50's? Before that the 1918 Spanish. With a new and
virulent
strain one sneeze by an infected person on a plane and the whole
plane goes down with it, potentially spreading it across the globe
in
very short time. SARS is still lurking in the background...

But we know how to do isolation now and keep its spread in check.

For how many? I doubt the UK could cope with properly isolating a few
hundred people from a plane.

Of course they could with a real emergency like the Spanish Flu produced.

That did happen with SARS in asia.

That's assuming you could track them down and all their contacts since...

That has been done when necessary like when
one paramedic ended up in the USA with ebola.

People would have to be ordered to self isolate in their homes but
would need supplies bringing to them. A small number of those ordered
wouldn't comply 100% "it won't hurt to nip to the shop for a packet
of fags and some tinnies"...

Yes, but SARS isolation did work well enough.

... and even ebola can't do it anymore.

It has a damn good try fairly often and is controlled almost
entirely
by physical means.

Yes, but controlled well that way so we never see a result like we got
with the black death anymore.

These are all virus based. Don't underestimate simple bacterial
infection. I doubt many here have memory of what an infection
really meant before the days of penicillin and modern antibiotics.

Yes, but those don't produce the result seen with black death either.

An minor cut finger could easly lead to the amputation of that
finger.

But with not enough people affect to wipe out humans.

The huge tuberculosis isolation hospitals where all being closed
down
when I was a lad.

Because the chemical treatment had been developed.

We don't get a problem with cholera or smallpox or polio anymore either

Those are all old diseases. Vaccination over many decades has
eliminated smallpox and almost eliminated polio. Cholera is still a
serious problem where there is poor santitation.

Yes, but doesn't have any real effect on the population numbers.
That's what we are discussing, whether that can wipe out the
human race. No chance, even the black death didn't, just radically
changed society at the time and only in western europe.

The threat doesn't come from these old, known, diseases but
from something new and novel jumping the species barrier.

Yes, but we clearly can handle that well with SARS, HIV.AIDS and ebola.

If that something just happens to be virulent nd easy to transfer with
modern rapid transport it could be all over the world in a very few days.
Well before it is recognised and *any* controlling action taken.

But still handlable with radical isolation.