"Arny Krueger" wrote in message
...
"William Sommerwerck" wrote in
message

After you know there is a goat behind door #3 and are
given a chance to guess again, there is a 50% chance the
car is behind door #1 and a 50% chance the car if behind
door #2. Change your choice or not, you have a 50%
chance of being right.

This is not correct. I explained it in a previous post.

You seriously think I didn't read your alleged explanation?

You've been known to be wrong before... ;-)

Like this...

Because you will have initially selected the wrong door
2/3 of the time (right?) it follows that 2/3 of the time
the good prize will be behind one of the two other doors.
The host will /always/ select a door with a goat,
therefore, you should switch, because there's a 2/3
chance the other door will have the good prize.

That is sheerist ********.

Your first mistake is assuming that there is a connection between your 2
guesses. In fact you have been given two different and disconnected games
to play.

Other than the fact that the car and 1 goat are carries-over from the
first game, there is no connection. If they brought in another car and
another goat, then the odds during the second game would be the same.

When you play the second game your odds of winning have improved to 1/2.
You have 1 chances out of 2, no more, no less to win when there are 2
opportunities.

Pick whichever door you will, unless you can smell the goat! ;-)

It would appear to me that the real purpose of this thread is to test the
gullibility of people.


No, YOU are simply arguing straight statistical chance, whereas TV game
shows, are always manipulated for dramatic effect. Another good example is
the quiz master who usually accepts a correct answer immediately, but often
gives a chance to change that answer if wrong. Obviously if given a chance
to switch your answer you should do so, since it is more likely your answer
would already have been accepted if correct. Whether its 66% of the time is
totally unproven, but anyone who watches these game shows knows it is NOT a
50:50 chance whenever a TV host, producer, and TV network are involved!

Trevor.