wrote in message
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nightjar wrote:
"peakoil" wrote in message
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Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ?

Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is
based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are
fixed.
It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly when
US
oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions.

Colin Bignell


Oil exploration is expensive. Its only finanically worthwhile
exploring enough to give a lmiited time buffer ahead. The failure to
understand this is the cause for this erroneous 'peak oil' hypothesis.

To be fair, at the time the theory was put forward, oil prices had, in real
terms, been slowly declining for decades and the theory was an accurate
description of how the oil industry worked at that time. What it failed to
take into account was that the recoverable reserves were limited mainly by
the technology of extraction and by the price of oil, which are, to some
extent, interlinked. I'm less sure about the cost of exploration being a
significant factor, given that the rate of discovery has consistently
increased faster than the rate of increase in use. If the cost of
exploration were a guiding factor, ISTM the two should grow at roughly the
same rate.

Colin Bignell