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World Oil Production to Peak in 2013



 
 
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  #1  
Old May 23rd 09, 03:54 PM posted to uk.d-i-y
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 5
Default World Oil Production to Peak in 2013

Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ? Are you
aware what this does mean for all of us ? We have 4 years from now,
until there will not be enough energy for travelling, heating and the
most important for food for everybody of us. Oil prices will begin to
peak, not 150 USD/barrel, much much higger prices are expected. Many
people will loose their jobs and many of us will begin to starve.
Alternatives will also be more expensive since the demand will
increase astronomically. Alternative energy will also be much much
more expensive, due to the demand and due to much higher costs. Making
a wind turbine cost a lot of energy. Making ethanol cost a lot of oil
(pesticides, insecticides, transportation, production, harvesting,
fertilizers etc.). Making insulations cost also a lot of oil.



What is the solution ? The only way is to act now, individually. Now,
where the oil prices are still cheap, although there is an increase,
each individual can begin to prepare himself for these hard times in
near future. Insulation of houses, solar cells, which are now more
affordable (in ebay 1 W solar cells cost 1 USD or even less), solar
water heating, solar heating with mirrors reflecting the sunlight to
your home in winter, making your own wind turbine (a lot of
instruction of cheap design can be found in the internet), buying a
plug-in car or a hybrid vehicle, using energy efficient lightning,
heating with heat pumps, making a winter garden etc. are some of the
things each of us can do to prepare himself/herself for hard times and
to save money and energy. There are also ways to save energy and try
to extend the date a little bit by using the car only when necessary,
using the bike instead of your car, using public transportation,
converting the car to methane fueling, saving energy where ever it is
possible, not only in your home also in your work, etc. will help to
extend the date.



The other alternative is to wait until this date, actually the
economical crisis is in its ending phase and the oil prices will again
rise to record highs. But this is nothing compared to the prices when
world oil supplies will deminish 4% yearly. And after this date (2013)
very very hard times may come. Starvation and even worse things like
war are the alternative.



If you act now, you will also help to produce new jobs in your
country.



Regards.


You can find much more on: http://www.peakoil.net/
Ads
  #2  
Old May 23rd 09, 04:08 PM posted to uk.d-i-y
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 215
Default World Oil Production to Peak in 2013

peakoil wrote:

according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ?


Choose your geologist carefully and you can nail your peg onto any year
between 1995 and 2030.


  #3  
Old May 23rd 09, 04:11 PM posted to uk.d-i-y
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2,668
Default World Oil Production to Peak in 2013


"peakoil" wrote in message
...
Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ?


Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is
based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are fixed.
It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly when US
oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions.

Colin Bignell


  #4  
Old May 23rd 09, 06:00 PM posted to uk.d-i-y
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 18,223
Default World Oil Production to Peak in 2013

Andy Burns wrote:
peakoil wrote:

according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ?


Choose your geologist carefully and you can nail your peg onto any year
between 1995 and 2030.


It peaked in 2008.
  #5  
Old May 23rd 09, 06:41 PM posted to uk.d-i-y
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 7,702
Default World Oil Production to Peak in 2013


"peakoil" wrote in message
...
Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ? Are you
aware what this does mean for all of us ? We have 4 years from now,
until there will not be enough energy for travelling, heating and the
most important for food for everybody of us. Oil prices will begin to
peak, not 150 USD/barrel, much much higger prices are expected. Many
people will loose their jobs and many of us will begin to starve.
Alternatives will also be more expensive since the demand will
increase astronomically. Alternative energy will also be much much
more expensive, due to the demand and due to much higher costs. Making
a wind turbine cost a lot of energy. Making ethanol cost a lot of oil
(pesticides, insecticides, transportation, production, harvesting,
fertilizers etc.). Making insulations cost also a lot of oil.



What is the solution ? The only way is to act now, individually. Now,
where the oil prices are still cheap, although there is an increase,
each individual can begin to prepare himself for these hard times in
near future. Insulation of houses, solar cells, which are now more
affordable (in ebay 1 W solar cells cost 1 USD or even less), solar
water heating, solar heating with mirrors reflecting the sunlight to
your home in winter, making your own wind turbine (a lot of
instruction of cheap design can be found in the internet), buying a
plug-in car or a hybrid vehicle, using energy efficient lightning,
heating with heat pumps, making a winter garden etc. are some of the
things each of us can do to prepare himself/herself for hard times and
to save money and energy. There are also ways to save energy and try
to extend the date a little bit by using the car only when necessary,
using the bike instead of your car, using public transportation,
converting the car to methane fueling, saving energy where ever it is
possible, not only in your home also in your work, etc. will help to
extend the date.



The other alternative is to wait until this date, actually the
economical crisis is in its ending phase and the oil prices will again
rise to record highs. But this is nothing compared to the prices when
world oil supplies will deminish 4% yearly. And after this date (2013)
very very hard times may come. Starvation and even worse things like
war are the alternative.



If you act now, you will also help to produce new jobs in your
country.



Regards.


You can find much more on: http://www.peakoil.net/



You can shove your wind turbines up your arse.

I will move to France and use nuclear power.

And I will eat their cheeses.

Adam


  #6  
Old May 23rd 09, 09:00 PM posted to uk.d-i-y
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 754
Default World Oil Production to Peak in 2013

On 23 May, 15:54, peakoil wrote:
Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ? *Are you
aware what this does mean for all of us ? *We have 4 years from now,
until there will not be enough energy for travelling, heating and the
most important for food for everybody of us.


SNIP long unproven list of assumptions

Eat, drink and be merry for tomorrow we die!
  #7  
Old May 23rd 09, 09:20 PM posted to uk.d-i-y
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 8,410
Default World Oil Production to Peak in 2013

nightjar wrote:
"peakoil" wrote in message
...


Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ?


Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is
based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are fixed.
It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly when US
oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions.

Colin Bignell



Oil exploration is expensive. Its only finanically worthwhile
exploring enough to give a lmiited time buffer ahead. The failure to
understand this is the cause for this erroneous 'peak oil' hypothesis.


NT
  #9  
Old May 24th 09, 11:43 AM posted to uk.d-i-y
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2,668
Default World Oil Production to Peak in 2013


wrote in message
...
nightjar wrote:
"peakoil" wrote in message
...


Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ?


Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is
based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are
fixed.
It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly when
US
oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions.

Colin Bignell



Oil exploration is expensive. Its only finanically worthwhile
exploring enough to give a lmiited time buffer ahead. The failure to
understand this is the cause for this erroneous 'peak oil' hypothesis.


To be fair, at the time the theory was put forward, oil prices had, in real
terms, been slowly declining for decades and the theory was an accurate
description of how the oil industry worked at that time. What it failed to
take into account was that the recoverable reserves were limited mainly by
the technology of extraction and by the price of oil, which are, to some
extent, interlinked. I'm less sure about the cost of exploration being a
significant factor, given that the rate of discovery has consistently
increased faster than the rate of increase in use. If the cost of
exploration were a guiding factor, ISTM the two should grow at roughly the
same rate.

Colin Bignell


  #10  
Old May 24th 09, 11:55 AM posted to uk.d-i-y
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2,668
Default World Oil Production to Peak in 2013


"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...
wrote:
nightjar wrote:
"peakoil" wrote in message
...


Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ?
Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is
based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are
fixed.
It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly
when US
oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions.

Colin Bignell



Oil exploration is expensive. Its only finanically worthwhile
exploring enough to give a lmiited time buffer ahead. The failure to
understand this is the cause for this erroneous 'peak oil' hypothesis.


So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less energy
to extract than is actually in the oil?


There is a lot more oil in the ground that we can extract than the peak oil
adherents would like us to believe. Quoted oil reserves are based upon the
P90 figure - a level that it is 90% certain will be exceeded in practice.
That is a wise figure to use for an individual oil field. Globally, as might
be expected, actual extraction achieved is close to the P50 figure, which
would give us about three times the recoverable oil reserves normally
quoted. Even that is only a small percentage of the oil actually in the
ground and future technology may increase the proportion of actual oil that
can be classed as recoverable oil.

The energy of extraction is something of a red herring, as oil is a useful
portable source of energy, so using non-portable sources of energy, such as
nuclear or hydro-electric generation, to provide power to extract it will
probably be worth while when it becomes expensive enough to need it.

Colin Bignell



 




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