World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ? Are you aware what this does mean for all of us ? We have 4 years from now, until there will not be enough energy for travelling, heating and the most important for food for everybody of us. Oil prices will begin to peak, not 150 USD/barrel, much much higger prices are expected. Many people will loose their jobs and many of us will begin to starve. Alternatives will also be more expensive since the demand will increase astronomically. Alternative energy will also be much much more expensive, due to the demand and due to much higher costs. Making a wind turbine cost a lot of energy. Making ethanol cost a lot of oil (pesticides, insecticides, transportation, production, harvesting, fertilizers etc.). Making insulations cost also a lot of oil. What is the solution ? The only way is to act now, individually. Now, where the oil prices are still cheap, although there is an increase, each individual can begin to prepare himself for these hard times in near future. Insulation of houses, solar cells, which are now more affordable (in ebay 1 W solar cells cost 1 USD or even less), solar water heating, solar heating with mirrors reflecting the sunlight to your home in winter, making your own wind turbine (a lot of instruction of cheap design can be found in the internet), buying a plug-in car or a hybrid vehicle, using energy efficient lightning, heating with heat pumps, making a winter garden etc. are some of the things each of us can do to prepare himself/herself for hard times and to save money and energy. There are also ways to save energy and try to extend the date a little bit by using the car only when necessary, using the bike instead of your car, using public transportation, converting the car to methane fueling, saving energy where ever it is possible, not only in your home also in your work, etc. will help to extend the date. The other alternative is to wait until this date, actually the economical crisis is in its ending phase and the oil prices will again rise to record highs. But this is nothing compared to the prices when world oil supplies will deminish 4% yearly. And after this date (2013) very very hard times may come. Starvation and even worse things like war are the alternative. If you act now, you will also help to produce new jobs in your country. Regards. You can find much more on: http://www.peakoil.net/ |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
peakoil wrote:
according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ? Choose your geologist carefully and you can nail your peg onto any year between 1995 and 2030. |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
"peakoil" wrote in message ... Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ? Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are fixed. It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly when US oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions. Colin Bignell |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
Andy Burns wrote:
peakoil wrote: according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ? Choose your geologist carefully and you can nail your peg onto any year between 1995 and 2030. It peaked in 2008. |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
"peakoil" wrote in message ... Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ? Are you aware what this does mean for all of us ? We have 4 years from now, until there will not be enough energy for travelling, heating and the most important for food for everybody of us. Oil prices will begin to peak, not 150 USD/barrel, much much higger prices are expected. Many people will loose their jobs and many of us will begin to starve. Alternatives will also be more expensive since the demand will increase astronomically. Alternative energy will also be much much more expensive, due to the demand and due to much higher costs. Making a wind turbine cost a lot of energy. Making ethanol cost a lot of oil (pesticides, insecticides, transportation, production, harvesting, fertilizers etc.). Making insulations cost also a lot of oil. What is the solution ? The only way is to act now, individually. Now, where the oil prices are still cheap, although there is an increase, each individual can begin to prepare himself for these hard times in near future. Insulation of houses, solar cells, which are now more affordable (in ebay 1 W solar cells cost 1 USD or even less), solar water heating, solar heating with mirrors reflecting the sunlight to your home in winter, making your own wind turbine (a lot of instruction of cheap design can be found in the internet), buying a plug-in car or a hybrid vehicle, using energy efficient lightning, heating with heat pumps, making a winter garden etc. are some of the things each of us can do to prepare himself/herself for hard times and to save money and energy. There are also ways to save energy and try to extend the date a little bit by using the car only when necessary, using the bike instead of your car, using public transportation, converting the car to methane fueling, saving energy where ever it is possible, not only in your home also in your work, etc. will help to extend the date. The other alternative is to wait until this date, actually the economical crisis is in its ending phase and the oil prices will again rise to record highs. But this is nothing compared to the prices when world oil supplies will deminish 4% yearly. And after this date (2013) very very hard times may come. Starvation and even worse things like war are the alternative. If you act now, you will also help to produce new jobs in your country. Regards. You can find much more on: http://www.peakoil.net/ You can shove your wind turbines up your arse. I will move to France and use nuclear power. And I will eat their cheeses. Adam |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
On 23 May, 15:54, peakoil wrote:
Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ? *Are you aware what this does mean for all of us ? *We have 4 years from now, until there will not be enough energy for travelling, heating and the most important for food for everybody of us. SNIP long unproven list of assumptions Eat, drink and be merry for tomorrow we die! |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
nightjar wrote:
"peakoil" wrote in message ... Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ? Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are fixed. It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly when US oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions. Colin Bignell Oil exploration is expensive. Its only finanically worthwhile exploring enough to give a lmiited time buffer ahead. The failure to understand this is the cause for this erroneous 'peak oil' hypothesis. NT |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
|
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
wrote in message ... nightjar wrote: "peakoil" wrote in message ... Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ? Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are fixed. It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly when US oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions. Colin Bignell Oil exploration is expensive. Its only finanically worthwhile exploring enough to give a lmiited time buffer ahead. The failure to understand this is the cause for this erroneous 'peak oil' hypothesis. To be fair, at the time the theory was put forward, oil prices had, in real terms, been slowly declining for decades and the theory was an accurate description of how the oil industry worked at that time. What it failed to take into account was that the recoverable reserves were limited mainly by the technology of extraction and by the price of oil, which are, to some extent, interlinked. I'm less sure about the cost of exploration being a significant factor, given that the rate of discovery has consistently increased faster than the rate of increase in use. If the cost of exploration were a guiding factor, ISTM the two should grow at roughly the same rate. Colin Bignell |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message ... wrote: nightjar wrote: "peakoil" wrote in message ... Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ? Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are fixed. It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly when US oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions. Colin Bignell Oil exploration is expensive. Its only finanically worthwhile exploring enough to give a lmiited time buffer ahead. The failure to understand this is the cause for this erroneous 'peak oil' hypothesis. So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less energy to extract than is actually in the oil? There is a lot more oil in the ground that we can extract than the peak oil adherents would like us to believe. Quoted oil reserves are based upon the P90 figure - a level that it is 90% certain will be exceeded in practice. That is a wise figure to use for an individual oil field. Globally, as might be expected, actual extraction achieved is close to the P50 figure, which would give us about three times the recoverable oil reserves normally quoted. Even that is only a small percentage of the oil actually in the ground and future technology may increase the proportion of actual oil that can be classed as recoverable oil. The energy of extraction is something of a red herring, as oil is a useful portable source of energy, so using non-portable sources of energy, such as nuclear or hydro-electric generation, to provide power to extract it will probably be worth while when it becomes expensive enough to need it. Colin Bignell |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message ... So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less energy to extract than is actually in the oil? On average only about 40% from a field is extracted because of the uneven shapes of the caverns. More flexible pipes are being employed to extract about twice as much, which means the North Sea has twice as much oil. But, peak oil is reality. In less than a century about half the world's oil reserves have been exhausted. A serious problem. The UK can use 100% electricity for everything including all transport and heating, etc by using tidal lagoons. The UK can get all its power from tidal lagoons built into the Irish Sea. It is largely a matter of dumping rock in the sea on an unprecedented scale. British engineers can manage that OK, and the British Isles geography is the best in the World for such an undertaking. It involves moving about 2500 million tons of rock to the Irish Sea, creating tidal lagoons to supply 100% of Britain's electricity needs. The numbers are staggering but possible. A heavy train can move perhaps 500 plus tons of rock so about 4 or 5 million train loads are needed. The UKs waste can be dumped into the lagoon walls too while under construction. The scale is no less than the laying of rail systems through the UK in the 1800s - trackbed, rails, trains, stations, bridge, tunnels, etc. Tidal lagoons are both the long-term answer and they are more acceptable politically. It would take maybe 30 railways to haul rock from say 30 large quarries over 25 years to meet 100% of Britain's need for energy. 2500 million tons of rock and 25% of the Irish Sea. This is clearly possible and mostly involves hauling rock from mountains to sea on an unprecedented scale. New valleys can be created also with new lakes and fresh water reservoirs, so knock on effects. Britain's engineers are easily up for that challenge. The walls built can also be bridges and anti tidal surge barriers too. There are many knock on benefits. The insides of hills and mountains can be cut out for the rock and lakes constructed top and bottom to make provision for instant use peak time hydro stations and fresh water reservoirs - half time energy peaks in major football games on TV. The UK can then run super-fast Maglev trains city centre to city centre, that can replace air travel and oil usage, without any problems in running costs. In fact propeller plane using electric motors and the more efficient battery sets could be used for island hopper planes. Fuel poverty and pollution is then a thing of the past. |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
|
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the
drugs began to take hold. I remember "nightjar" cpb@insert my surname here.me.uk saying something like: There is a lot more oil in the ground that we can extract than the peak oil adherents would like us to believe. Ah, but. Are you an advocate of sitting on our arses and doing nothing because you say there's more there than we think there is? Doesn't matter when it will run out, it will run out for sure at some point and if we haven't got off our arses and got something in place to compensate, we will have a very bleak future indeed. Not that I really give a **** - I'll be long gone and I have no descendents. |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
1. Oil sand reserves are simply vast
2. Amount of oil available depends on the price of oil :-) 3. Oil price is as much indo-china demand 4. Oil future price is as much reserve dollar backed by oil or china's new reserve currency 5. Peak oil is very beneficial to eco-political oil pricing masking disproportionate taxation levels USA is following the UK down 5. re taxation to eventually bring deficits to 3% of GDP. UK should have started nuke building in 2000, it is over a decade behind the curve. |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
"js.b1" wrote in message ... UK should have started nuke building in 2000, it is over a decade behind the curve. How foolish when the Irish Sea and tidal lagoons can solve the energy problem for ever. |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
nightjar cpb@ wrote:
"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message ... wrote: nightjar wrote: "peakoil" wrote in message ... Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ? Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are fixed. It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly when US oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions. Colin Bignell Oil exploration is expensive. Its only finanically worthwhile exploring enough to give a lmiited time buffer ahead. The failure to understand this is the cause for this erroneous 'peak oil' hypothesis. So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less energy to extract than is actually in the oil? There is a lot more oil in the ground that we can extract than the peak oil adherents would like us to believe. Quoted oil reserves are based upon the P90 figure - a level that it is 90% certain will be exceeded in practice. That is a wise figure to use for an individual oil field. Globally, as might be expected, actual extraction achieved is close to the P50 figure, which would give us about three times the recoverable oil reserves normally quoted. Even that is only a small percentage of the oil actually in the ground and future technology may increase the proportion of actual oil that can be classed as recoverable oil. The energy of extraction is something of a red herring, as oil is a useful portable source of energy, so using non-portable sources of energy, such as nuclear or hydro-electric generation, to provide power to extract it will probably be worth while when it becomes expensive enough to need it. Its actually easier to synthesise it. Colin Bignell |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
"Doctor Drivel" wrote in message ... "The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message ... So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less energy to extract than is actually in the oil? On average only about 40% from a field is extracted because of the uneven shapes of the caverns. More flexible pipes are being employed to extract about twice as much, which means the North Sea has twice as much oil. But, peak oil is reality. In less than a century about half the world's oil reserves have been exhausted. Only if you limit yourself to conventional oil sources, use P90 figures and, incorrectly, assume that you can reach a global total of P90 reserves by a simple mathematical addition of individual oil field P90 figures. .... The UK can get all its power from tidal lagoons built into the Irish Sea. It is largely a matter of dumping rock in the sea on an unprecedented scale. British engineers can manage that OK, and the British Isles geography is the best in the World for such an undertaking. It involves moving about 2500 million tons of rock to the Irish Sea, creating tidal lagoons to supply 100% of Britain's electricity needs. A lot easier to build nuclear power stations instead, with the added advantage that the technology is proven. Colin Bignell |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
"Grimly Curmudgeon" wrote in message ... We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the drugs began to take hold. I remember "nightjar" cpb@insert my surname here.me.uk saying something like: There is a lot more oil in the ground that we can extract than the peak oil adherents would like us to believe. Ah, but. Are you an advocate of sitting on our arses and doing nothing because you say there's more there than we think there is? Doesn't matter when it will run out, it will run out for sure at some point and if we haven't got off our arses and got something in place to compensate, we will have a very bleak future indeed. One of the fallacies is that oil will run out suddenly. We have decades, possibly a century or more, to do something, even after supplies start to fail. For my money, that ought to be investing in algal oil, which uses human and animal waste to replicate how nature created oil, without the multi-million year wait, without the need to take up any fertile land, with lots of CO2 being consumed from the atmosphere and with fertiliser as a by-product. Colin Bignell |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
js.b1 wrote:
1. Oil sand reserves are simply vast 2. Amount of oil available depends on the price of oil :-) 3. Oil price is as much indo-china demand 4. Oil future price is as much reserve dollar backed by oil or china's new reserve currency 5. Peak oil is very beneficial to eco-political oil pricing masking disproportionate taxation levels USA is following the UK down 5. re taxation to eventually bring deficits to 3% of GDP. UK should have started nuke building in 2000, it is over a decade behind the curve. The long and the short of it is oil extraction on marginal fields (esp tar sands) already prices it out against competitive energy sources. Ergo, we have seen peak oil already. If the price rises to make the marginal fields economic, it also makes e.g. nuclear power massively economic. Most of the world runs on oil because it is cheap. Up the price and the world will use alternatives where it can. Up it yet more and its cheaper to make it than drill it. I suspect we wont see oil production ever matching 2008 figures: If it does the price will be enough to crash the world economy again. Cliaming peak oil is rubbish is a useful device fotr the oil industry. - it stops people panicking and selling oil shares - it stops people developing alternative energy sources - this keeping oil prices higher and profits up.. |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
nightjar cpb@ wrote:
"Grimly Curmudgeon" wrote in message ... We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the drugs began to take hold. I remember "nightjar" cpb@insert my surname here.me.uk saying something like: There is a lot more oil in the ground that we can extract than the peak oil adherents would like us to believe. Ah, but. Are you an advocate of sitting on our arses and doing nothing because you say there's more there than we think there is? Doesn't matter when it will run out, it will run out for sure at some point and if we haven't got off our arses and got something in place to compensate, we will have a very bleak future indeed. One of the fallacies is that oil will run out suddenly. Last year it did run out suddenly. Not as 'in the ground' but as refinery and extraction capacity. There are complex reasons why its actually less profitable to pump more oil. Or build more capacity. We have decades, possibly a century or more, to do something, even after supplies start to fail. For my money, that ought to be investing in algal oil, which uses human and animal waste to replicate how nature created oil, without the multi-million year wait, without the need to take up any fertile land, with lots of CO2 being consumed from the atmosphere and with fertiliser as a by-product. Colin Bignell Figures dont add up sadly. |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
On Sun, 24 May 2009 15:41:32 +0100 someone who may be "nightjar"
cpb@insert my surname here.me.uk wrote this:- One of the fallacies is that oil will run out suddenly. It is not a fallacy amongst those who campaign on peak oil. I have met a few of them and none has ever claimed that, they state that it does not mean oil will run out suddenly. It is a creation, by accident or design, of those who oppose them. As an example of what those concerned actually say I put forward http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/SPE%202004%20Annual%20Conference.pdf. -- David Hansen, Edinburgh I will *always* explain revoked encryption keys, unless RIP prevents me http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2000/00023--e.htm#54 |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
"nightjar .me.uk" cpb@insert my surname here wrote in message ... "Doctor Drivel" wrote in message ... "The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message ... So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less energy to extract than is actually in the oil? On average only about 40% from a field is extracted because of the uneven shapes of the caverns. More flexible pipes are being employed to extract about twice as much, which means the North Sea has twice as much oil. But, peak oil is reality. In less than a century about half the world's oil reserves have been exhausted. Only if you limit yourself to conventional oil sources, use P90 figures and, incorrectly, assume that you can reach a global total of P90 reserves by a simple mathematical addition of individual oil field P90 figures. ... The UK can get all its power from tidal lagoons built into the Irish Sea. It is largely a matter of dumping rock in the sea on an unprecedented scale. British engineers can manage that OK, and the British Isles geography is the best in the World for such an undertaking. It involves moving about 2500 million tons of rock to the Irish Sea, creating tidal lagoons to supply 100% of Britain's electricity needs. A lot easier to build nuclear power stations instead, It isn't!!! And when nuclear goes wrong it does in big way. Nuclear is not cheap. with the added advantage that the technology is proven. So is tidal. 24/7 production, no side effects and great knock-on effects and clean all around - no pollution. Fuel poverty and pollution is then a thing of the past, which is not the case in France. You missed out this bit: "The scale is no less than the laying of rail systems through the UK in the 1800s - trackbed, rails, trains, stations, bridge, tunnels, etc." |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
On Sun, 24 May 2009 13:53:50 +0100, Grimly Curmudgeon wrote:
There is a lot more oil in the ground that we can extract than the peak oil adherents would like us to believe. Are you an advocate of sitting on our arses and doing nothing because you say there's more there than we think there is? Doesn't matter when it will run out, it will run out for sure at some point and if we haven't got off our arses and got something in place to compensate, we will have a very bleak future indeed. Hear hear and in the mean time how many billions (trillions?) of tonnes more fossil carbon are we going to dump into the atmosphere? -- Cheers Dave. |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
On Sun, 24 May 2009 15:41:32 +0100, "nightjar".me.uk wrote:
For my money, that ought to be investing in algal oil, which uses human and animal waste to replicate how nature created oil, without the multi-million year wait, without the need to take up any fertile land, with lots of CO2 being consumed from the atmosphere and with fertiliser as a by-product. Pulling that C02 from the atmosphere is carbon neutral though as it will be realeased again when the fuel is burnt. We need to try and balance the global carbon cycle. The planet will survive and sort itself out over time, possible rather a lot of time but wether we as a species and lots of other species are part of that is another matter. -- Cheers Dave. |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
On Sun, 24 May 2009 13:53:50 +0100 someone who may be Grimly
Curmudgeon wrote this:- Are you an advocate of sitting on our arses and doing nothing because you say there's more there than we think there is? Indeed. A good introduction to the subject is at http://philhart.com/content/introduction-peak-oil from which the following is taken "Listening to the 'market experts' on your evening news, you could be forgiven for thinking that oil production is governed purely by economic theories. It is going to be a painful lesson, but even the economists will soon learn that the production of oil is in fact governed by very sound geological principles and the laws of physics. "The oil we have built our societies on was actually created one hundred million years ago. More of it is not now going to suddenly appear 10,000 feet underground just because economists say the price is too high. Let me try to clarify the situation. "The simplest observation to begin with is that you must discover oil before you can produce it. Figure 1 shows the worldwide trend of oil discovery and production. This chart reveals several important facts: " * There were enormous early discoveries (in the Middle East) in the late 1930's and late 1940's " * Worldwide oil discovery peaked in 1964 and has been falling ever since " * Every year since 1984, we have been discovered less oil than we have produced " * We currently find one barrel of oil for every four that we use "We are not yet 'running out' of oil - there is still a lot in the ground. But, we are reaching the point where the production rate will 'peak' and begin to decline. For a world built on an assumption of continuing growth in energy and the economy, this is challenging news." -- David Hansen, Edinburgh I will *always* explain revoked encryption keys, unless RIP prevents me http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2000/00023--e.htm#54 |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message ... nightjar cpb@ wrote: "Grimly Curmudgeon" wrote in message ... We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the drugs began to take hold. I remember "nightjar" cpb@insert my surname here.me.uk saying something like: There is a lot more oil in the ground that we can extract than the peak oil adherents would like us to believe. Ah, but. Are you an advocate of sitting on our arses and doing nothing because you say there's more there than we think there is? Doesn't matter when it will run out, it will run out for sure at some point and if we haven't got off our arses and got something in place to compensate, we will have a very bleak future indeed. One of the fallacies is that oil will run out suddenly. Last year it did run out suddenly. Not as 'in the ground' but as refinery and extraction capacity. With the result that prices rose, various non-conventional sources became worth while exploiting, giving some increase in capacity, while demand reduced until it matched supply. It is a self-limiting system and quite different from the question of oil reserves. There are complex reasons why its actually less profitable to pump more oil. Or build more capacity. We have decades, possibly a century or more, to do something, even after supplies start to fail. For my money, that ought to be investing in algal oil, which uses human and animal waste to replicate how nature created oil, without the multi-million year wait, without the need to take up any fertile land, with lots of CO2 being consumed from the atmosphere and with fertiliser as a by-product. Colin Bignell Figures dont add up sadly. The only figures that don't add up at the moment are the costs - currently $800 a barrel. However, that is for a laboratory level production and a ten-fold reduction in cost for full production is not an unrealistic target. Colin Bignell |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
nightjar cpb@ wrote:
"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message ... nightjar cpb@ wrote: "Grimly Curmudgeon" wrote in message ... We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the drugs began to take hold. I remember "nightjar" cpb@insert my surname here.me.uk saying something like: There is a lot more oil in the ground that we can extract than the peak oil adherents would like us to believe. Ah, but. Are you an advocate of sitting on our arses and doing nothing because you say there's more there than we think there is? Doesn't matter when it will run out, it will run out for sure at some point and if we haven't got off our arses and got something in place to compensate, we will have a very bleak future indeed. One of the fallacies is that oil will run out suddenly. Last year it did run out suddenly. Not as 'in the ground' but as refinery and extraction capacity. With the result that prices rose, various non-conventional sources became worth while exploiting, giving some increase in capacity, while demand reduced until it matched supply. It is a self-limiting system and quite different from the question of oil reserves. There are complex reasons why its actually less profitable to pump more oil. Or build more capacity. We have decades, possibly a century or more, to do something, even after supplies start to fail. For my money, that ought to be investing in algal oil, which uses human and animal waste to replicate how nature created oil, without the multi-million year wait, without the need to take up any fertile land, with lots of CO2 being consumed from the atmosphere and with fertiliser as a by-product. Colin Bignell Figures dont add up sadly. The only figures that don't add up at the moment are the costs - currently $800 a barrel. However, that is for a laboratory level production and a ten-fold reduction in cost for full production is not an unrealistic target. At $50-60 a barrel nuclear electric heating with heatpumps is cost competitive.At over $150 a barrel even windmills can be argued for.. Electric trains start to be really cost competitive over diesel and short haul flights. Rail freight starts to be cheap, although rail pricing is such a complete muddle due to the way its subsidised (or not) that it makes it very hard to say. At around $100 a barrel many industrial heating processes are cheaper with nuclear electric than carbon fuels.. Higher commuter costs for many people will switch the housing market away from suburbia, back to short to medium inner city rental properties. Online shopping replaces going to the supermarket. Those are the reasons I consider that oil has already passed its peak in production. Not because its not still there, but because its getting too expensive to be worth using. Colin Bignell |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
"Doctor Drivel" wrote in message ... "nightjar .me.uk" cpb@insert my surname here wrote in message ... "Doctor Drivel" wrote in message ... "The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message ... So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less energy to extract than is actually in the oil? On average only about 40% from a field is extracted because of the uneven shapes of the caverns. More flexible pipes are being employed to extract about twice as much, which means the North Sea has twice as much oil. But, peak oil is reality. In less than a century about half the world's oil reserves have been exhausted. Only if you limit yourself to conventional oil sources, use P90 figures and, incorrectly, assume that you can reach a global total of P90 reserves by a simple mathematical addition of individual oil field P90 figures. ... The UK can get all its power from tidal lagoons built into the Irish Sea. It is largely a matter of dumping rock in the sea on an unprecedented scale. British engineers can manage that OK, and the British Isles geography is the best in the World for such an undertaking. It involves moving about 2500 million tons of rock to the Irish Sea, creating tidal lagoons to supply 100% of Britain's electricity needs. A lot easier to build nuclear power stations instead, It isn't!!! I disagree. And when nuclear goes wrong it does in big way. Not if the plant is properly designed, unlike Chernobyl. A Swiss study of the whole life cycle safety of different electricity generation methods showed it to be the safest overall, even including the effects of Chernobyl: Power Source Fatalities per TWa Injuries per TWa Coal 342 70 Oil 418 441 Natural gas 85 213 LPG 3280 13900 Hydro 993 195 Nuclear 8 100 Nuclear is not cheap. An EU study in 1997, again considering the whole life cycle, showed it is about half the price of wind power, about 80% the cost of gas and comparable to modern caarbon capture coal. Only traditional coal plants came out cheaper and it is highly improbable that Britain would build any more of those.. with the added advantage that the technology is proven. So is tidal. Not on anything like the scale you are discussing. UK peak demand is 60GW. Total global tidal power is 0.3GW. Total global nuclear power is around 370GW. 24/7 production, Only notionally. It varies with the tides and peak production may not be when you need it. no side effects If you discount destroying whole marine environmnets. and great knock-on effects and clean all around - no pollution. If you discount the pollution involved in building it. You will note the studies I refer to consider the whole life cycle, which includes building, running and decommisioning the plant. In the case of the accident figures, they include, where appropriate exploration for, extraction of and waste disposal for the fuel as well. Fuel poverty and pollution is then a thing of the past, which is not the case in France. You missed out this bit: "The scale is no less than the laying of rail systems through the UK in the 1800s - trackbed, rails, trains, stations, bridge, tunnels, etc." That is a century's worth of major civil engineering works and, in any case, I would want to see design specifications and calculations to back it up before believing it. Colin Bignell |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
"David Hansen" wrote in message ... On Sun, 24 May 2009 15:41:32 +0100 someone who may be "nightjar" cpb@insert my surname here.me.uk wrote this:- One of the fallacies is that oil will run out suddenly. It is not a fallacy amongst those who campaign on peak oil. I have met a few of them and none has ever claimed that, they state that it does not mean oil will run out suddenly. It is a creation, by accident or design, of those who oppose them. You only have to read the post that started this thread to see that some, at least, actively promote that view. Colin Bignell |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
nightjar cpb@ wrote:
So is tidal. snip 24/7 production, Only notionally. It varies with the tides and peak production may not be when you need it. I'll pick you up on that one (only). Tides around the UK are such that you can always be making tidal power _somewhere_ regardless of the state of the tide. Of course, you do have to cost in the grid to move it around, and overcapacity so you still have enough at neaps - but I think it may have a place. Andy |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
"Andy Champ" wrote in message . uk... nightjar cpb@ wrote: So is tidal. snip 24/7 production, Only notionally. It varies with the tides and peak production may not be when you need it. I'll pick you up on that one (only). Tides around the UK are such that you can always be making tidal power _somewhere_ regardless of the state of the tide. Of course, you do have to cost in the grid to move it around, and overcapacity so you still have enough at neaps - but I think it may have a place. I was specifically addressing DD's suggestion that the entire power supply for the UK could be derived from tidal power in the Irish Sea. I agree that distributed systems around the UK would alleviate the problem, but I think a lot of work still needs to be done on the effects of the lagoons on marine environments. Colin Bignell |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
nightjar cpb@ wrote:
"Doctor Drivel" wrote in message ... "nightjar .me.uk" cpb@insert my surname here wrote in message ... "Doctor Drivel" wrote in message ... "The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message ... So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less energy to extract than is actually in the oil? On average only about 40% from a field is extracted because of the uneven shapes of the caverns. More flexible pipes are being employed to extract about twice as much, which means the North Sea has twice as much oil. But, peak oil is reality. In less than a century about half the world's oil reserves have been exhausted. Only if you limit yourself to conventional oil sources, use P90 figures and, incorrectly, assume that you can reach a global total of P90 reserves by a simple mathematical addition of individual oil field P90 figures. ... The UK can get all its power from tidal lagoons built into the Irish Sea. It is largely a matter of dumping rock in the sea on an unprecedented scale. British engineers can manage that OK, and the British Isles geography is the best in the World for such an undertaking. It involves moving about 2500 million tons of rock to the Irish Sea, creating tidal lagoons to supply 100% of Britain's electricity needs. A lot easier to build nuclear power stations instead, It isn't!!! I disagree. And when nuclear goes wrong it does in big way. Not if the plant is properly designed, unlike Chernobyl. A Swiss study of the whole life cycle safety of different electricity generation methods showed it to be the safest overall, even including the effects of Chernobyl: Power Source Fatalities per TWa Injuries per TWa Coal 342 70 Oil 418 441 Natural gas 85 213 LPG 3280 13900 Hydro 993 195 Nuclear 8 100 Nuclear is not cheap. An EU study in 1997, again considering the whole life cycle, showed it is about half the price of wind power, about 80% the cost of gas and comparable to modern caarbon capture coal. Only traditional coal plants came out cheaper and it is highly improbable that Britain would build any more of those.. with the added advantage that the technology is proven. So is tidal. Not on anything like the scale you are discussing. UK peak demand is 60GW. Thats current *elecricity* consumption. TOTAL power we use is nearer 300-350GW peak. If you really care about carbon, that's also got to be generated. If you really care about global consumption, that doesn't include the energy in all the products we buy from e.g. china. Or the food we import.. Total global tidal power is 0.3GW. Total global nuclear power is around 370GW. 24/7 production, Only notionally. It varies with the tides and peak production may not be when you need it. no side effects If you discount destroying whole marine environmnets. and great knock-on effects and clean all around - no pollution. If you discount the pollution involved in building it. You will note the studies I refer to consider the whole life cycle, which includes building, running and decommisioning the plant. In the case of the accident figures, they include, where appropriate exploration for, extraction of and waste disposal for the fuel as well. Fuel poverty and pollution is then a thing of the past, which is not the case in France. You missed out this bit: "The scale is no less than the laying of rail systems through the UK in the 1800s - trackbed, rails, trains, stations, bridge, tunnels, etc." That is a century's worth of major civil engineering works and, in any case, I would want to see design specifications and calculations to back it up before believing it. Colin Bignell |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
Andy Champ wrote:
nightjar cpb@ wrote: So is tidal. snip 24/7 production, Only notionally. It varies with the tides and peak production may not be when you need it. I'll pick you up on that one (only). Tides around the UK are such that you can always be making tidal power _somewhere_ regardless of the state of the tide. Of course, you do have to cost in the grid to move it around, and overcapacity so you still have enough at neaps - but I think it may have a place. its a very expensive and environmentally dfestrictive way to generate power, and there are only a few places where its really effective - you cant use the whole coastline, not for any decent scale and efficiency. Andy |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
|
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
On Mon, 25 May 2009 18:37:59 +0100 someone who may be "nightjar"
cpb@insert my surname here.me.uk wrote this:- You only have to read the post that started this thread to see that some, at least, actively promote that view. I did read it. I didn't notice anything in that post which said that oil would run out suddenly. -- David Hansen, Edinburgh I will *always* explain revoked encryption keys, unless RIP prevents me http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2000/00023--e.htm#54 |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
On Tue, 26 May 2009 00:01:02 +0100 someone who may be "nightjar"
cpb@insert my surname here.me.uk wrote this:- I was specifically addressing DD's suggestion that the entire power supply for the UK could be derived from tidal power in the Irish Sea. I agree that distributed systems around the UK would alleviate the problem, but I think a lot of work still needs to be done on the effects of the lagoons on marine environments. Are you suggesting that the only way to extract electricity from the tides is to build lagoons? If you are then that explains some of the false statements in your other posting. -- David Hansen, Edinburgh I will *always* explain revoked encryption keys, unless RIP prevents me http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2000/00023--e.htm#54 |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
"nightjar .me.uk" cpb@insert my surname here wrote in message ... A lot easier to build nuclear power stations instead, It isn't!!! I disagree. I think we have one. And when nuclear goes wrong it does in big way. Not if Tidal lagoons have zero risk on failure. We can all form a list on nuclear disasters. Nuclear power stations are a front for atomic weapons. |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
"Andy Champ" wrote in message . uk... nightjar cpb@ wrote: So is tidal. snip 24/7 production, Only notionally. It varies with the tides and peak production may not be when you need it. I'll pick you up on that one (only). Tides around the UK are such that you can always be making tidal power _somewhere_ regardless of the state of the tide. Of course, you do have to cost in the grid to move it around, and overcapacity so you still have enough at neaps - but I think it may have a place. Tidal lagoons (I doubt many really understand them) can provide all power 24/7 and surges too. We need a programme to implement them which will be equiv to the railways implementation in the 1800s. |
World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
"nightjar .me.uk" cpb@insert my surname here wrote in message ... I was specifically addressing DD's suggestion that the entire power supply for the UK could be derived from tidal power in the Irish Sea. It can. Understand what a tidal lagoon is. I think a lot of work still needs to be done on the effects of the lagoons on marine environments. The lagoons will protect it and act as fish farms too. And bridges for railways/Maglev |
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