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peakoil May 23rd 09 04:54 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ? Are you
aware what this does mean for all of us ? We have 4 years from now,
until there will not be enough energy for travelling, heating and the
most important for food for everybody of us. Oil prices will begin to
peak, not 150 USD/barrel, much much higger prices are expected. Many
people will loose their jobs and many of us will begin to starve.
Alternatives will also be more expensive since the demand will
increase astronomically. Alternative energy will also be much much
more expensive, due to the demand and due to much higher costs. Making
a wind turbine cost a lot of energy. Making ethanol cost a lot of oil
(pesticides, insecticides, transportation, production, harvesting,
fertilizers etc.). Making insulations cost also a lot of oil.



What is the solution ? The only way is to act now, individually. Now,
where the oil prices are still cheap, although there is an increase,
each individual can begin to prepare himself for these hard times in
near future. Insulation of houses, solar cells, which are now more
affordable (in ebay 1 W solar cells cost 1 USD or even less), solar
water heating, solar heating with mirrors reflecting the sunlight to
your home in winter, making your own wind turbine (a lot of
instruction of cheap design can be found in the internet), buying a
plug-in car or a hybrid vehicle, using energy efficient lightning,
heating with heat pumps, making a winter garden etc. are some of the
things each of us can do to prepare himself/herself for hard times and
to save money and energy. There are also ways to save energy and try
to extend the date a little bit by using the car only when necessary,
using the bike instead of your car, using public transportation,
converting the car to methane fueling, saving energy where ever it is
possible, not only in your home also in your work, etc. will help to
extend the date.



The other alternative is to wait until this date, actually the
economical crisis is in its ending phase and the oil prices will again
rise to record highs. But this is nothing compared to the prices when
world oil supplies will deminish 4% yearly. And after this date (2013)
very very hard times may come. Starvation and even worse things like
war are the alternative.



If you act now, you will also help to produce new jobs in your
country.



Regards.


You can find much more on: http://www.peakoil.net/

Andy Burns[_6_] May 23rd 09 05:08 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
peakoil wrote:

according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ?


Choose your geologist carefully and you can nail your peg onto any year
between 1995 and 2030.



nightjar May 23rd 09 05:11 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 

"peakoil" wrote in message
...
Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ?


Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is
based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are fixed.
It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly when US
oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions.

Colin Bignell



The Natural Philosopher[_2_] May 23rd 09 07:00 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
Andy Burns wrote:
peakoil wrote:

according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ?


Choose your geologist carefully and you can nail your peg onto any year
between 1995 and 2030.


It peaked in 2008.

ARWadsworth May 23rd 09 07:41 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 

"peakoil" wrote in message
...
Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ? Are you
aware what this does mean for all of us ? We have 4 years from now,
until there will not be enough energy for travelling, heating and the
most important for food for everybody of us. Oil prices will begin to
peak, not 150 USD/barrel, much much higger prices are expected. Many
people will loose their jobs and many of us will begin to starve.
Alternatives will also be more expensive since the demand will
increase astronomically. Alternative energy will also be much much
more expensive, due to the demand and due to much higher costs. Making
a wind turbine cost a lot of energy. Making ethanol cost a lot of oil
(pesticides, insecticides, transportation, production, harvesting,
fertilizers etc.). Making insulations cost also a lot of oil.



What is the solution ? The only way is to act now, individually. Now,
where the oil prices are still cheap, although there is an increase,
each individual can begin to prepare himself for these hard times in
near future. Insulation of houses, solar cells, which are now more
affordable (in ebay 1 W solar cells cost 1 USD or even less), solar
water heating, solar heating with mirrors reflecting the sunlight to
your home in winter, making your own wind turbine (a lot of
instruction of cheap design can be found in the internet), buying a
plug-in car or a hybrid vehicle, using energy efficient lightning,
heating with heat pumps, making a winter garden etc. are some of the
things each of us can do to prepare himself/herself for hard times and
to save money and energy. There are also ways to save energy and try
to extend the date a little bit by using the car only when necessary,
using the bike instead of your car, using public transportation,
converting the car to methane fueling, saving energy where ever it is
possible, not only in your home also in your work, etc. will help to
extend the date.



The other alternative is to wait until this date, actually the
economical crisis is in its ending phase and the oil prices will again
rise to record highs. But this is nothing compared to the prices when
world oil supplies will deminish 4% yearly. And after this date (2013)
very very hard times may come. Starvation and even worse things like
war are the alternative.



If you act now, you will also help to produce new jobs in your
country.



Regards.


You can find much more on: http://www.peakoil.net/



You can shove your wind turbines up your arse.

I will move to France and use nuclear power.

And I will eat their cheeses.

Adam



cynic May 23rd 09 10:00 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
On 23 May, 15:54, peakoil wrote:
Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ? *Are you
aware what this does mean for all of us ? *We have 4 years from now,
until there will not be enough energy for travelling, heating and the
most important for food for everybody of us.


SNIP long unproven list of assumptions

Eat, drink and be merry for tomorrow we die!

[email protected] May 23rd 09 10:20 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
nightjar wrote:
"peakoil" wrote in message
...


Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ?


Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is
based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are fixed.
It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly when US
oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions.

Colin Bignell



Oil exploration is expensive. Its only finanically worthwhile
exploring enough to give a lmiited time buffer ahead. The failure to
understand this is the cause for this erroneous 'peak oil' hypothesis.


NT

The Natural Philosopher[_2_] May 24th 09 08:19 AM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
wrote:
nightjar wrote:
"peakoil" wrote in message
...


Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ?

Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is
based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are fixed.
It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly when US
oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions.

Colin Bignell



Oil exploration is expensive. Its only finanically worthwhile
exploring enough to give a lmiited time buffer ahead. The failure to
understand this is the cause for this erroneous 'peak oil' hypothesis.


So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less
energy to extract than is actually in the oil?


NT


nightjar May 24th 09 12:43 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 

wrote in message
...
nightjar wrote:
"peakoil" wrote in message
...


Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ?


Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is
based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are
fixed.
It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly when
US
oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions.

Colin Bignell



Oil exploration is expensive. Its only finanically worthwhile
exploring enough to give a lmiited time buffer ahead. The failure to
understand this is the cause for this erroneous 'peak oil' hypothesis.


To be fair, at the time the theory was put forward, oil prices had, in real
terms, been slowly declining for decades and the theory was an accurate
description of how the oil industry worked at that time. What it failed to
take into account was that the recoverable reserves were limited mainly by
the technology of extraction and by the price of oil, which are, to some
extent, interlinked. I'm less sure about the cost of exploration being a
significant factor, given that the rate of discovery has consistently
increased faster than the rate of increase in use. If the cost of
exploration were a guiding factor, ISTM the two should grow at roughly the
same rate.

Colin Bignell



nightjar May 24th 09 12:55 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 

"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...
wrote:
nightjar wrote:
"peakoil" wrote in message
...


Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ?
Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is
based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are
fixed.
It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly
when US
oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions.

Colin Bignell



Oil exploration is expensive. Its only finanically worthwhile
exploring enough to give a lmiited time buffer ahead. The failure to
understand this is the cause for this erroneous 'peak oil' hypothesis.


So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less energy
to extract than is actually in the oil?


There is a lot more oil in the ground that we can extract than the peak oil
adherents would like us to believe. Quoted oil reserves are based upon the
P90 figure - a level that it is 90% certain will be exceeded in practice.
That is a wise figure to use for an individual oil field. Globally, as might
be expected, actual extraction achieved is close to the P50 figure, which
would give us about three times the recoverable oil reserves normally
quoted. Even that is only a small percentage of the oil actually in the
ground and future technology may increase the proportion of actual oil that
can be classed as recoverable oil.

The energy of extraction is something of a red herring, as oil is a useful
portable source of energy, so using non-portable sources of energy, such as
nuclear or hydro-electric generation, to provide power to extract it will
probably be worth while when it becomes expensive enough to need it.

Colin Bignell




Doctor Drivel[_2_] May 24th 09 01:05 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 

"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...

So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less energy
to extract than is actually in the oil?


On average only about 40% from a field is extracted because of the uneven
shapes of the caverns. More flexible pipes are being employed to extract
about twice as much, which means the North Sea has twice as much oil.

But, peak oil is reality. In less than a century about half the world's oil
reserves have been exhausted. A serious problem. The UK can use 100%
electricity for everything including all transport and heating, etc by using
tidal lagoons.

The UK can get all its power from tidal lagoons built into the Irish Sea. It
is largely a matter of dumping rock in the sea on an unprecedented scale.
British engineers can manage that OK, and the British Isles geography is the
best in the World for such an undertaking. It involves moving about 2500
million tons of rock to the Irish Sea, creating tidal lagoons to supply 100%
of Britain's electricity needs.

The numbers are staggering but possible. A heavy train can move perhaps 500
plus tons of rock so about 4 or 5 million train loads are needed. The UKs
waste can be dumped into the lagoon walls too while under construction. The
scale is no less than the laying of rail systems through the UK in the
1800s - trackbed, rails, trains, stations, bridge, tunnels, etc.

Tidal lagoons are both the long-term answer and they are more acceptable
politically. It would take maybe 30 railways to haul rock from say 30 large
quarries over 25 years to meet 100% of Britain's need for energy. 2500
million tons of rock and 25% of the Irish Sea. This is clearly possible and
mostly involves hauling rock from mountains to sea on an unprecedented
scale. New valleys can be created also with new lakes and fresh water
reservoirs, so knock on effects. Britain's engineers are easily up for that
challenge. The walls built can also be bridges and anti tidal surge
barriers too. There are many knock on benefits.

The insides of hills and mountains can be cut out for the rock and lakes
constructed top and bottom to make provision for instant use peak time hydro
stations and fresh water reservoirs - half time energy peaks in major
football games on TV.

The UK can then run super-fast Maglev trains city centre to city centre,
that can replace air travel and oil usage, without any problems in running
costs. In fact propeller plane using electric motors and the more efficient
battery sets could be used for island hopper planes.

Fuel poverty and pollution is then a thing of the past.



[email protected] May 24th 09 01:06 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
The Natural Philosopher wrote:
wrote:
nightjar wrote:
"peakoil" wrote in message
...


Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ?
Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is
based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are fixed.
It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly when US
oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions.

Colin Bignell



Oil exploration is expensive. Its only finanically worthwhile
exploring enough to give a lmiited time buffer ahead. The failure to
understand this is the cause for this erroneous 'peak oil' hypothesis.


So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less
energy to extract than is actually in the oil?


i see youre not in brain functioning mode yet


NT

Grimly Curmudgeon May 24th 09 02:53 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the
drugs began to take hold. I remember "nightjar" cpb@insert my surname
here.me.uk saying something like:

There is a lot more oil in the ground that we can extract than the peak oil
adherents would like us to believe.


Ah, but.
Are you an advocate of sitting on our arses and doing nothing because
you say there's more there than we think there is? Doesn't matter when
it will run out, it will run out for sure at some point and if we
haven't got off our arses and got something in place to compensate, we
will have a very bleak future indeed.

Not that I really give a **** - I'll be long gone and I have no
descendents.

js.b1 May 24th 09 03:32 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
1. Oil sand reserves are simply vast
2. Amount of oil available depends on the price of oil :-)
3. Oil price is as much indo-china demand
4. Oil future price is as much reserve dollar backed by oil or china's
new reserve currency
5. Peak oil is very beneficial to eco-political oil pricing masking
disproportionate taxation levels

USA is following the UK down 5. re taxation to eventually bring
deficits to 3% of GDP.

UK should have started nuke building in 2000, it is over a decade
behind the curve.

Doctor Drivel[_2_] May 24th 09 03:39 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 

"js.b1" wrote in message
...

UK should have started nuke building in 2000, it is over a decade
behind the curve.


How foolish when the Irish Sea and tidal lagoons can solve the energy
problem for ever.


The Natural Philosopher[_2_] May 24th 09 04:30 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
wrote:
The Natural Philosopher wrote:
wrote:
nightjar wrote:
"peakoil" wrote in message
...
Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ?
Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is
based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are fixed.
It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly when US
oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions.

Colin Bignell

Oil exploration is expensive. Its only finanically worthwhile
exploring enough to give a lmiited time buffer ahead. The failure to
understand this is the cause for this erroneous 'peak oil' hypothesis.


So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less
energy to extract than is actually in the oil?


i see youre not in brain functioning mode yet


I see you are more idiotic that you appear to be at a causal glance.

NT


The Natural Philosopher[_2_] May 24th 09 04:31 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
nightjar cpb@ wrote:
"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...
wrote:
nightjar wrote:
"peakoil" wrote in message
...
Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ?
Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is
based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are
fixed.
It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly
when US
oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions.

Colin Bignell

Oil exploration is expensive. Its only finanically worthwhile
exploring enough to give a lmiited time buffer ahead. The failure to
understand this is the cause for this erroneous 'peak oil' hypothesis.


So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less energy
to extract than is actually in the oil?


There is a lot more oil in the ground that we can extract than the peak oil
adherents would like us to believe. Quoted oil reserves are based upon the
P90 figure - a level that it is 90% certain will be exceeded in practice.
That is a wise figure to use for an individual oil field. Globally, as might
be expected, actual extraction achieved is close to the P50 figure, which
would give us about three times the recoverable oil reserves normally
quoted. Even that is only a small percentage of the oil actually in the
ground and future technology may increase the proportion of actual oil that
can be classed as recoverable oil.

The energy of extraction is something of a red herring, as oil is a useful
portable source of energy, so using non-portable sources of energy, such as
nuclear or hydro-electric generation, to provide power to extract it will
probably be worth while when it becomes expensive enough to need it.


Its actually easier to synthesise it.

Colin Bignell




nightjar May 24th 09 04:34 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 

"Doctor Drivel" wrote in message
...

"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...

So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less
energy to extract than is actually in the oil?


On average only about 40% from a field is extracted because of the uneven
shapes of the caverns. More flexible pipes are being employed to extract
about twice as much, which means the North Sea has twice as much oil.

But, peak oil is reality. In less than a century about half the world's
oil reserves have been exhausted.


Only if you limit yourself to conventional oil sources, use P90 figures and,
incorrectly, assume that you can reach a global total of P90 reserves by a
simple mathematical addition of individual oil field P90 figures.

....
The UK can get all its power from tidal lagoons built into the Irish Sea.
It is largely a matter of dumping rock in the sea on an unprecedented
scale. British engineers can manage that OK, and the British Isles
geography is the best in the World for such an undertaking. It involves
moving about 2500 million tons of rock to the Irish Sea, creating tidal
lagoons to supply 100% of Britain's electricity needs.


A lot easier to build nuclear power stations instead, with the added
advantage that the technology is proven.

Colin Bignell



nightjar May 24th 09 04:41 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 

"Grimly Curmudgeon" wrote in message
...
We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the
drugs began to take hold. I remember "nightjar" cpb@insert my surname
here.me.uk saying something like:

There is a lot more oil in the ground that we can extract than the peak
oil
adherents would like us to believe.


Ah, but.
Are you an advocate of sitting on our arses and doing nothing because
you say there's more there than we think there is? Doesn't matter when
it will run out, it will run out for sure at some point and if we
haven't got off our arses and got something in place to compensate, we
will have a very bleak future indeed.


One of the fallacies is that oil will run out suddenly. We have decades,
possibly a century or more, to do something, even after supplies start to
fail. For my money, that ought to be investing in algal oil, which uses
human and animal waste to replicate how nature created oil, without the
multi-million year wait, without the need to take up any fertile land, with
lots of CO2 being consumed from the atmosphere and with fertiliser as a
by-product.

Colin Bignell



The Natural Philosopher[_2_] May 24th 09 04:41 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
js.b1 wrote:
1. Oil sand reserves are simply vast
2. Amount of oil available depends on the price of oil :-)
3. Oil price is as much indo-china demand
4. Oil future price is as much reserve dollar backed by oil or china's
new reserve currency
5. Peak oil is very beneficial to eco-political oil pricing masking
disproportionate taxation levels

USA is following the UK down 5. re taxation to eventually bring
deficits to 3% of GDP.

UK should have started nuke building in 2000, it is over a decade
behind the curve.

The long and the short of it is oil extraction on marginal fields (esp
tar sands) already prices it out against competitive energy sources.

Ergo, we have seen peak oil already.

If the price rises to make the marginal fields economic, it also makes
e.g. nuclear power massively economic.

Most of the world runs on oil because it is cheap.

Up the price and the world will use alternatives where it can.

Up it yet more and its cheaper to make it than drill it.

I suspect we wont see oil production ever matching 2008 figures: If it
does the price will be enough to crash the world economy again.

Cliaming peak oil is rubbish is a useful device fotr the oil industry.
- it stops people panicking and selling oil shares
- it stops people developing alternative energy sources
- this keeping oil prices higher and profits up..

The Natural Philosopher[_2_] May 24th 09 04:49 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
nightjar cpb@ wrote:
"Grimly Curmudgeon" wrote in message
...
We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the
drugs began to take hold. I remember "nightjar" cpb@insert my surname
here.me.uk saying something like:

There is a lot more oil in the ground that we can extract than the peak
oil
adherents would like us to believe.

Ah, but.
Are you an advocate of sitting on our arses and doing nothing because
you say there's more there than we think there is? Doesn't matter when
it will run out, it will run out for sure at some point and if we
haven't got off our arses and got something in place to compensate, we
will have a very bleak future indeed.


One of the fallacies is that oil will run out suddenly.


Last year it did run out suddenly.

Not as 'in the ground' but as refinery and extraction capacity.

There are complex reasons why its actually less profitable to pump more
oil. Or build more capacity.


We have decades,
possibly a century or more, to do something, even after supplies start to
fail. For my money, that ought to be investing in algal oil, which uses
human and animal waste to replicate how nature created oil, without the
multi-million year wait, without the need to take up any fertile land, with
lots of CO2 being consumed from the atmosphere and with fertiliser as a
by-product.

Colin Bignell


Figures dont add up sadly.


David Hansen May 24th 09 08:23 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
On Sun, 24 May 2009 15:41:32 +0100 someone who may be "nightjar"
cpb@insert my surname here.me.uk wrote this:-

One of the fallacies is that oil will run out suddenly.


It is not a fallacy amongst those who campaign on peak oil. I have
met a few of them and none has ever claimed that, they state that it
does not mean oil will run out suddenly. It is a creation, by
accident or design, of those who oppose them.

As an example of what those concerned actually say I put forward
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/SPE%202004%20Annual%20Conference.pdf.



--
David Hansen, Edinburgh
I will *always* explain revoked encryption keys, unless RIP prevents me
http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2000/00023--e.htm#54

Doctor Drivel[_2_] May 24th 09 09:54 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 

"nightjar .me.uk" cpb@insert my surname here wrote in message
...

"Doctor Drivel" wrote in message
...

"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...

So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less
energy to extract than is actually in the oil?


On average only about 40% from a field is extracted because of the uneven
shapes of the caverns. More flexible pipes are being employed to extract
about twice as much, which means the North Sea has twice as much oil.

But, peak oil is reality. In less than a century about half the world's
oil reserves have been exhausted.


Only if you limit yourself to conventional oil sources, use P90 figures
and, incorrectly, assume that you can reach a global total of P90 reserves
by a simple mathematical addition of individual oil field P90 figures.

...
The UK can get all its power from tidal lagoons built into the Irish Sea.
It is largely a matter of dumping rock in the sea on an unprecedented
scale. British engineers can manage that OK, and the British Isles
geography is the best in the World for such an undertaking. It involves
moving about 2500 million tons of rock to the Irish Sea, creating tidal
lagoons to supply 100% of Britain's electricity needs.


A lot easier to build nuclear power stations instead,


It isn't!!! And when nuclear goes wrong it does in big way. Nuclear is
not cheap.

with the added advantage that the technology is proven.


So is tidal. 24/7 production, no side effects and great knock-on effects
and clean all around - no pollution. Fuel poverty and pollution is then a
thing of the past, which is not the case in France.

You missed out this bit:
"The scale is no less than the laying of rail systems through the UK in the
1800s - trackbed, rails, trains, stations, bridge, tunnels, etc."


Dave Liquorice[_2_] May 25th 09 10:59 AM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
On Sun, 24 May 2009 13:53:50 +0100, Grimly Curmudgeon wrote:

There is a lot more oil in the ground that we can extract than the peak
oil adherents would like us to believe.


Are you an advocate of sitting on our arses and doing nothing because
you say there's more there than we think there is? Doesn't matter when
it will run out, it will run out for sure at some point and if we
haven't got off our arses and got something in place to compensate, we
will have a very bleak future indeed.


Hear hear and in the mean time how many billions (trillions?) of tonnes
more fossil carbon are we going to dump into the atmosphere?

--
Cheers
Dave.




Dave Liquorice[_2_] May 25th 09 11:08 AM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
On Sun, 24 May 2009 15:41:32 +0100, "nightjar".me.uk wrote:

For my money, that ought to be investing in algal oil, which uses
human and animal waste to replicate how nature created oil, without the
multi-million year wait, without the need to take up any fertile land,
with lots of CO2 being consumed from the atmosphere and with fertiliser
as a by-product.


Pulling that C02 from the atmosphere is carbon neutral though as it will
be realeased again when the fuel is burnt. We need to try and balance the
global carbon cycle. The planet will survive and sort itself out over
time, possible rather a lot of time but wether we as a species and lots of
other species are part of that is another matter.

--
Cheers
Dave.




David Hansen May 25th 09 11:54 AM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
On Sun, 24 May 2009 13:53:50 +0100 someone who may be Grimly
Curmudgeon wrote this:-

Are you an advocate of sitting on our arses and doing nothing because
you say there's more there than we think there is?


Indeed.

A good introduction to the subject is at
http://philhart.com/content/introduction-peak-oil from which the
following is taken

"Listening to the 'market experts' on your evening news, you could
be forgiven for thinking that oil production is governed purely by
economic theories. It is going to be a painful lesson, but even the
economists will soon learn that the production of oil is in fact
governed by very sound geological principles and the laws of
physics.

"The oil we have built our societies on was actually created one
hundred million years ago. More of it is not now going to suddenly
appear 10,000 feet underground just because economists say the price
is too high. Let me try to clarify the situation.

"The simplest observation to begin with is that you must discover
oil before you can produce it. Figure 1 shows the worldwide trend of
oil discovery and production. This chart reveals several important
facts:

" * There were enormous early discoveries (in the Middle East) in
the late 1930's and late 1940's

" * Worldwide oil discovery peaked in 1964 and has been falling ever
since

" * Every year since 1984, we have been discovered less oil than we
have produced

" * We currently find one barrel of oil for every four that we use

"We are not yet 'running out' of oil - there is still a lot in the
ground. But, we are reaching the point where the production rate
will 'peak' and begin to decline. For a world built on an assumption
of continuing growth in energy and the economy, this is challenging
news."




--
David Hansen, Edinburgh
I will *always* explain revoked encryption keys, unless RIP prevents me
http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2000/00023--e.htm#54

nightjar May 25th 09 12:24 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 

"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...
nightjar cpb@ wrote:
"Grimly Curmudgeon" wrote in message
...
We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the
drugs began to take hold. I remember "nightjar" cpb@insert my surname
here.me.uk saying something like:

There is a lot more oil in the ground that we can extract than the peak
oil
adherents would like us to believe.
Ah, but.
Are you an advocate of sitting on our arses and doing nothing because
you say there's more there than we think there is? Doesn't matter when
it will run out, it will run out for sure at some point and if we
haven't got off our arses and got something in place to compensate, we
will have a very bleak future indeed.


One of the fallacies is that oil will run out suddenly.


Last year it did run out suddenly.

Not as 'in the ground' but as refinery and extraction capacity.


With the result that prices rose, various non-conventional sources became
worth while exploiting, giving some increase in capacity, while demand
reduced until it matched supply. It is a self-limiting system and quite
different from the question of oil reserves.

There are complex reasons why its actually less profitable to pump more
oil. Or build more capacity.


We have decades, possibly a century or more, to do something, even after
supplies start to fail. For my money, that ought to be investing in algal
oil, which uses human and animal waste to replicate how nature created
oil, without the multi-million year wait, without the need to take up any
fertile land, with lots of CO2 being consumed from the atmosphere and
with fertiliser as a by-product.

Colin Bignell

Figures dont add up sadly.


The only figures that don't add up at the moment are the costs - currently
$800 a barrel. However, that is for a laboratory level production and a
ten-fold reduction in cost for full production is not an unrealistic target.

Colin Bignell



The Natural Philosopher[_2_] May 25th 09 07:15 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
nightjar cpb@ wrote:
"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...
nightjar cpb@ wrote:
"Grimly Curmudgeon" wrote in message
...
We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the
drugs began to take hold. I remember "nightjar" cpb@insert my surname
here.me.uk saying something like:

There is a lot more oil in the ground that we can extract than the peak
oil
adherents would like us to believe.
Ah, but.
Are you an advocate of sitting on our arses and doing nothing because
you say there's more there than we think there is? Doesn't matter when
it will run out, it will run out for sure at some point and if we
haven't got off our arses and got something in place to compensate, we
will have a very bleak future indeed.
One of the fallacies is that oil will run out suddenly.

Last year it did run out suddenly.

Not as 'in the ground' but as refinery and extraction capacity.


With the result that prices rose, various non-conventional sources became
worth while exploiting, giving some increase in capacity, while demand
reduced until it matched supply. It is a self-limiting system and quite
different from the question of oil reserves.

There are complex reasons why its actually less profitable to pump more
oil. Or build more capacity.


We have decades, possibly a century or more, to do something, even after
supplies start to fail. For my money, that ought to be investing in algal
oil, which uses human and animal waste to replicate how nature created
oil, without the multi-million year wait, without the need to take up any
fertile land, with lots of CO2 being consumed from the atmosphere and
with fertiliser as a by-product.

Colin Bignell

Figures dont add up sadly.


The only figures that don't add up at the moment are the costs - currently
$800 a barrel. However, that is for a laboratory level production and a
ten-fold reduction in cost for full production is not an unrealistic target.

At $50-60 a barrel nuclear electric heating with heatpumps is cost
competitive.At over $150 a barrel even windmills can be argued for..

Electric trains start to be really cost competitive over diesel and
short haul flights. Rail freight starts to be cheap, although rail
pricing is such a complete muddle due to the way its subsidised (or not)
that it makes it very hard to say.

At around $100 a barrel many industrial heating processes are cheaper
with nuclear electric than carbon fuels..

Higher commuter costs for many people will switch the housing market
away from suburbia, back to short to medium inner city rental properties.

Online shopping replaces going to the supermarket.

Those are the reasons I consider that oil has already passed its peak in
production. Not because its not still there, but because its getting too
expensive to be worth using.






Colin Bignell



nightjar May 25th 09 07:36 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 

"Doctor Drivel" wrote in message
...

"nightjar .me.uk" cpb@insert my surname here wrote in message
...

"Doctor Drivel" wrote in message
...

"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...

So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less
energy to extract than is actually in the oil?

On average only about 40% from a field is extracted because of the
uneven shapes of the caverns. More flexible pipes are being employed to
extract about twice as much, which means the North Sea has twice as much
oil.

But, peak oil is reality. In less than a century about half the world's
oil reserves have been exhausted.


Only if you limit yourself to conventional oil sources, use P90 figures
and, incorrectly, assume that you can reach a global total of P90
reserves by a simple mathematical addition of individual oil field P90
figures.

...
The UK can get all its power from tidal lagoons built into the Irish
Sea. It is largely a matter of dumping rock in the sea on an
unprecedented scale. British engineers can manage that OK, and the
British Isles geography is the best in the World for such an
undertaking. It involves moving about 2500 million tons of rock to the
Irish Sea, creating tidal lagoons to supply 100% of Britain's
electricity needs.


A lot easier to build nuclear power stations instead,


It isn't!!!


I disagree.

And when nuclear goes wrong it does in big way.


Not if the plant is properly designed, unlike Chernobyl. A Swiss study of
the whole life cycle safety of different electricity generation methods
showed it to be the safest overall, even including the effects of Chernobyl:

Power Source Fatalities per TWa Injuries per TWa
Coal 342 70
Oil 418 441
Natural gas 85 213
LPG 3280 13900
Hydro 993 195
Nuclear 8 100

Nuclear is not cheap.


An EU study in 1997, again considering the whole life cycle, showed it is
about half the price of wind power, about 80% the cost of gas and comparable
to modern caarbon capture coal. Only traditional coal plants came out
cheaper and it is highly improbable that Britain would build any more of
those..


with the added advantage that the technology is proven.


So is tidal.


Not on anything like the scale you are discussing. UK peak demand is 60GW.
Total global tidal power is 0.3GW. Total global nuclear power is around
370GW.

24/7 production,


Only notionally. It varies with the tides and peak production may not be
when you need it.

no side effects


If you discount destroying whole marine environmnets.

and great knock-on effects and clean all around - no pollution.


If you discount the pollution involved in building it. You will note the
studies I refer to consider the whole life cycle, which includes building,
running and decommisioning the plant. In the case of the accident figures,
they include, where appropriate exploration for, extraction of and waste
disposal for the fuel as well.


Fuel poverty and pollution is then a thing of the past, which is not the
case in France.
You missed out this bit:
"The scale is no less than the laying of rail systems through the UK in
the 1800s - trackbed, rails, trains, stations, bridge, tunnels, etc."


That is a century's worth of major civil engineering works and, in any case,
I would want to see design specifications and calculations to back it up
before believing it.

Colin Bignell



nightjar May 25th 09 07:37 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 

"David Hansen" wrote in message
...
On Sun, 24 May 2009 15:41:32 +0100 someone who may be "nightjar"
cpb@insert my surname here.me.uk wrote this:-

One of the fallacies is that oil will run out suddenly.


It is not a fallacy amongst those who campaign on peak oil. I have
met a few of them and none has ever claimed that, they state that it
does not mean oil will run out suddenly. It is a creation, by
accident or design, of those who oppose them.


You only have to read the post that started this thread to see that some, at
least, actively promote that view.

Colin Bignell



Andy Champ[_2_] May 25th 09 11:44 PM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
nightjar cpb@ wrote:
So is tidal.


snip

24/7 production,


Only notionally. It varies with the tides and peak production may not be
when you need it.


I'll pick you up on that one (only). Tides around the UK are such that
you can always be making tidal power _somewhere_ regardless of the state
of the tide. Of course, you do have to cost in the grid to move it
around, and overcapacity so you still have enough at neaps - but I think
it may have a place.

Andy

nightjar May 26th 09 01:01 AM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 

"Andy Champ" wrote in message
. uk...
nightjar cpb@ wrote:
So is tidal.


snip

24/7 production,


Only notionally. It varies with the tides and peak production may not be
when you need it.


I'll pick you up on that one (only). Tides around the UK are such that
you can always be making tidal power _somewhere_ regardless of the state
of the tide. Of course, you do have to cost in the grid to move it
around, and overcapacity so you still have enough at neaps - but I think
it may have a place.


I was specifically addressing DD's suggestion that the entire power supply
for the UK could be derived from tidal power in the Irish Sea. I agree that
distributed systems around the UK would alleviate the problem, but I think a
lot of work still needs to be done on the effects of the lagoons on marine
environments.

Colin Bignell



The Natural Philosopher[_2_] May 26th 09 02:53 AM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
nightjar cpb@ wrote:
"Doctor Drivel" wrote in message
...
"nightjar .me.uk" cpb@insert my surname here wrote in message
...
"Doctor Drivel" wrote in message
...
"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...

So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less
energy to extract than is actually in the oil?
On average only about 40% from a field is extracted because of the
uneven shapes of the caverns. More flexible pipes are being employed to
extract about twice as much, which means the North Sea has twice as much
oil.

But, peak oil is reality. In less than a century about half the world's
oil reserves have been exhausted.
Only if you limit yourself to conventional oil sources, use P90 figures
and, incorrectly, assume that you can reach a global total of P90
reserves by a simple mathematical addition of individual oil field P90
figures.

...
The UK can get all its power from tidal lagoons built into the Irish
Sea. It is largely a matter of dumping rock in the sea on an
unprecedented scale. British engineers can manage that OK, and the
British Isles geography is the best in the World for such an
undertaking. It involves moving about 2500 million tons of rock to the
Irish Sea, creating tidal lagoons to supply 100% of Britain's
electricity needs.
A lot easier to build nuclear power stations instead,

It isn't!!!


I disagree.

And when nuclear goes wrong it does in big way.


Not if the plant is properly designed, unlike Chernobyl. A Swiss study of
the whole life cycle safety of different electricity generation methods
showed it to be the safest overall, even including the effects of Chernobyl:

Power Source Fatalities per TWa Injuries per TWa
Coal 342 70
Oil 418 441
Natural gas 85 213
LPG 3280 13900
Hydro 993 195
Nuclear 8 100

Nuclear is not cheap.


An EU study in 1997, again considering the whole life cycle, showed it is
about half the price of wind power, about 80% the cost of gas and comparable
to modern caarbon capture coal. Only traditional coal plants came out
cheaper and it is highly improbable that Britain would build any more of
those..


with the added advantage that the technology is proven.

So is tidal.


Not on anything like the scale you are discussing. UK peak demand is 60GW.


Thats current *elecricity* consumption. TOTAL power we use is nearer
300-350GW peak. If you really care about carbon, that's also got to be
generated.

If you really care about global consumption, that doesn't include the
energy in all the products we buy from e.g. china. Or the food we import..

Total global tidal power is 0.3GW. Total global nuclear power is around
370GW.

24/7 production,


Only notionally. It varies with the tides and peak production may not be
when you need it.

no side effects


If you discount destroying whole marine environmnets.

and great knock-on effects and clean all around - no pollution.


If you discount the pollution involved in building it. You will note the
studies I refer to consider the whole life cycle, which includes building,
running and decommisioning the plant. In the case of the accident figures,
they include, where appropriate exploration for, extraction of and waste
disposal for the fuel as well.


Fuel poverty and pollution is then a thing of the past, which is not the
case in France.
You missed out this bit:
"The scale is no less than the laying of rail systems through the UK in
the 1800s - trackbed, rails, trains, stations, bridge, tunnels, etc."


That is a century's worth of major civil engineering works and, in any case,
I would want to see design specifications and calculations to back it up
before believing it.

Colin Bignell



The Natural Philosopher[_2_] May 26th 09 02:55 AM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
Andy Champ wrote:
nightjar cpb@ wrote:
So is tidal.


snip

24/7 production,


Only notionally. It varies with the tides and peak production may not
be when you need it.


I'll pick you up on that one (only). Tides around the UK are such that
you can always be making tidal power _somewhere_ regardless of the state
of the tide. Of course, you do have to cost in the grid to move it
around, and overcapacity so you still have enough at neaps - but I think
it may have a place.


its a very expensive and environmentally dfestrictive way to generate
power, and there are only a few places where its really effective - you
cant use the whole coastline, not for any decent scale and efficiency.


Andy


The Natural Philosopher[_2_] May 26th 09 02:58 AM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
wrote:
On 25 May,
"nightjar" cpb@insert my surname here.me.uk wrote:

(tidal power)

Not on anything like the scale you are discussing. UK peak demand is 60GW.
Total global tidal power is 0.3GW. Total global nuclear power is around
370GW.

24/7 production,

Only notionally. It varies with the tides and peak production may not be
when you need it.


With two sources (Morecome Bay and Severn Estuary 24/7 is easy, and will
produce moer GW than any single nuclear plant.


So? we need about 100 nuclear plants to run the whole country. For
everything.

Its it reall worth wrecking the whole severn to justify not building ONE.


no side effects

If you discount destroying whole marine environmnets.


It /will/ modify marine environments. They change anyway. I can't see any
overall worsening.


Oh my giddy aunt..

and great knock-on effects and clean all around - no pollution.

If you discount the pollution involved in building it. You will note the
studies I refer to consider the whole life cycle, which includes building,
running and decommisioning the plant. In the case of the accident figures,
they include, where appropriate exploration for, extraction of and waste
disposal for the fuel as well.

The life of a tidal barriage (or lagoon) would be extremely long. Its
construction would not be difficult, and relatively pollution free. A win-win
situation once the nimbys are consoled.




David Hansen May 26th 09 08:26 AM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
On Mon, 25 May 2009 18:37:59 +0100 someone who may be "nightjar"
cpb@insert my surname here.me.uk wrote this:-

You only have to read the post that started this thread to see that some, at
least, actively promote that view.


I did read it. I didn't notice anything in that post which said that
oil would run out suddenly.


--
David Hansen, Edinburgh
I will *always* explain revoked encryption keys, unless RIP prevents me
http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2000/00023--e.htm#54

David Hansen May 26th 09 08:29 AM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 
On Tue, 26 May 2009 00:01:02 +0100 someone who may be "nightjar"
cpb@insert my surname here.me.uk wrote this:-

I was specifically addressing DD's suggestion that the entire power supply
for the UK could be derived from tidal power in the Irish Sea. I agree that
distributed systems around the UK would alleviate the problem, but I think a
lot of work still needs to be done on the effects of the lagoons on marine
environments.


Are you suggesting that the only way to extract electricity from the
tides is to build lagoons? If you are then that explains some of the
false statements in your other posting.



--
David Hansen, Edinburgh
I will *always* explain revoked encryption keys, unless RIP prevents me
http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2000/00023--e.htm#54

Doctor Drivel[_2_] May 26th 09 09:56 AM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 

"nightjar .me.uk" cpb@insert my surname here wrote in message
...

A lot easier to build nuclear power stations instead,


It isn't!!!


I disagree.


I think we have one.

And when nuclear goes wrong it does in big way.


Not if


Tidal lagoons have zero risk on failure. We can all form a list on nuclear
disasters. Nuclear power stations are a front for atomic weapons.


Doctor Drivel[_2_] May 26th 09 09:58 AM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 

"Andy Champ" wrote in message
. uk...
nightjar cpb@ wrote:
So is tidal.


snip

24/7 production,


Only notionally. It varies with the tides and peak production may not be
when you need it.


I'll pick you up on that one (only). Tides around the UK are such that
you can always be making tidal power _somewhere_ regardless of the state
of the tide. Of course, you do have to cost in the grid to move it
around, and overcapacity so you still have enough at neaps - but I think
it may have a place.


Tidal lagoons (I doubt many really understand them) can provide all power
24/7 and surges too. We need a programme to implement them which will be
equiv to the railways implementation in the 1800s.


Doctor Drivel[_2_] May 26th 09 10:01 AM

World Oil Production to Peak in 2013
 

"nightjar .me.uk" cpb@insert my surname here wrote in message
...

I was specifically addressing DD's suggestion that the entire power supply
for the UK could be derived from tidal power in the Irish Sea.


It can. Understand what a tidal lagoon is.

I think a lot of work still needs to be done on the effects of the lagoons
on marine environments.


The lagoons will protect it and act as fish farms too. And bridges for
railways/Maglev



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