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Default Global warming -- America's greatest threat!

The forecast for tonight, here in the Midwest, is for the low to be in
the single digits and the wind chill to be in the negative single
digits.

I hope this doesn't start another discussion about W I N D C H I L L.
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On Mon, 17 Nov 2014 20:36:55 -0600, "Albert Gore, Jr." There's a sucker
born every minute. wrote:

The forecast for tonight, here in the Midwest, is for the low to be in
the single digits and the wind chill to be in the negative single
digits.

I hope this doesn't start another discussion about W I N D C H I L L.


Throw all that wind and the ice and snow to follow in the ocean and see
if sea level drops.

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Albert Gore, Jr. View Post
The forecast for tonight, here in the Midwest, is for the low to be in
the single digits and the wind chill to be in the negative single
digits.
While that may be true, Australians are baking in 40+ degree Celsius temperatures. That's over 104 deg. F.

The highest temperature I've ever experienced here in Winnipeg is 37 deg. C, or 98.6 degrees F, and that was about 20 years ago. Coldest was -52 deg. Farenheit, when I was a kid and before Canada went metric.

Winter is not the best time to be looking for evidence of global warming.
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On Tuesday, November 18, 2014 1:17:11 AM UTC-5, nestork wrote:
Albert Gore, Jr.;3309852 Wrote:
The forecast for tonight, here in the Midwest, is for the low to be in
the single digits and the wind chill to be in the negative single
digits.


While that may be true, Australians are baking in 40+ degree Celsius
temperatures. That's over 104 deg. F.

The highest temperature I've ever experienced here in Winnipeg is 37
deg. C, or 98.6 degrees F, and that was about 20 years ago. Coldest was
-52 deg. Farenheit, when I was a kid and before Canada went metric.

Winter is not the best time to be looking for evidence of global
warming.




--
nestork


Winter isn't the best time, but it's as good a time as any other. Whether it's
warmer in winter or summer doesn't matter.
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On Mon, 17 Nov 2014 20:36:55 -0600, "Albert Gore, Jr." There's a
sucker born every minute. wrote in


The forecast for tonight, here in the Midwest, is for the low to be in
the single digits and the wind chill to be in the negative single
digits.


Man-made climate warming/change is quack science used by
big-government tax and spend politicians and special interest groups
to justify massive new taxes and government control (think gas cans,
light bulbs and carbon taxes). Indeed, many of the UN-IPCC input data
assumptions used in the Global Warming Climate Change computer models
are egregiously unrealistic, e.g. CO2 uptake via the global ocean/air
interface, effects of solar activity, very limited data sampling,
sub-surface ocean current movement changes, chronic underestimate of
methane effects, variability of volcanic ash and CO2 ejection, methane
overestimation, etc. There are many others. As the developers of
computer models like to say: "Garbage in, garbage out".

The IPCC previous report, in 2007, was so grotesquely flawed that the
leading scientific body in the United States, the InterAcademy
Council, decided that an investigation was warranted. The IAC duly
reported in 2010, and concluded that there were "significant
shortcomings in each major step of [the] IPCC’s assessment process",
and that "significant improvements" were needed. It also chastised the
IPCC for claiming to have "high confidence in some statements for
which there is little evidence".

Indeed, A peer-reviewed climate change study released in Sept 2013 by
the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change finds the
threat of man-made global warming to be not only greatly exaggerated
but so small as to be "embedded within the background variability of
the natural climate system" and not dangerous.

Want more? How about: “The dysfunctional nature of the climate
sciences is nothing short of a scandal. Science is too important for
our society to be misused in the way it has been done within the
Climate Science Community.” The global warming establishment “has
actively suppressed research results presented by researchers that do
not comply with the dogma of the IPCC.” -- Swedish Climatologist Dr.
Hans Jelbring of the Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics Unit at Stockholm
University.

Last, but not least, is additional dissonance added to the debate
regarding the many beneficial aspects of warming, regardless or who or
what is causing it.

A new report from the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate
Change (NIPCC), written by an international collection of scientists
and published by the conservative Heartland Institute, claims just
that, declaring that humanity's impact on climate is not causing
substantial harm to the Earth.

For a sample of big-media bias on this issue, read "LA Times bans
letters from climate skeptics" (you will have to search for it because
this site doesn't allow posting of links.)

Permission granted to freely copy/paste the above.
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Per CRNG:
Man-made climate warming/change is quack science used by
big-government tax and spend politicians and special interest groups
to justify...


How do you suppose the people behind it managed to sell the idea to
China's Central Committee? Not exactly a hotbed of tree huggers.

How about Xi Jinping?
--
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On Tue, 18 Nov 2014 11:19:19 -0500, "(PeteCresswell)"
wrote:

Per CRNG:
Man-made climate warming/change is quack science used by
big-government tax and spend politicians and special interest groups
to justify...


How do you suppose the people behind it managed to sell the idea to
China's Central Committee? Not exactly a hotbed of tree huggers.

How about Xi Jinping?


Xi Jinping's ideology is not unlike our liar-in-chief's, he'll say
what he believes the world wants to hear and then he'll do what ever
the hell he wants. What's your point?
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Last night I was listening to some "expert" talking about global warming, and he was saying that current forecasts suggest that it won't be until 2080 or thereabouts that the use of fossil fuels will start diminishing. That is, the use of fossil fuels for energy is going to keep increasing until 2080, and then start to subside. A lot of this is because of all the people in China, India and Brazil that are making their way out of the lower class into the middle class and wanting to buy cars. Also, many countries have abundant coal resources and don't want to be importing oil and LNG as long as they can use their own coal reserves to provide the energy they need.

This week, Barak Obama and the Chinese Prime Minister signed a deal saying that both countries would begin reducing their carbon footprints by 2030. Obama is a lame duck president and he knows that anything he signs will not bind the next President of the USA. The Chinese Prime Minister knows that he's not likely to still be in power by 2030 either.

The bottom line here is that our society is based on fossil fuels. Our cities have suburbs where people live 10 or more miles from the city centers where they work. If it were not for cars and gasoline, those suburbs would not be practical. Also, cities are growing, and most new houses and buildings use fossil fuels for heat and use electricity produced by burning fossil fuels for air conditioning. That's simply because using fossil fuels for heat costs less than electricity, and will for the foreseeable future. And, while we may be able to use electric cars to commute to work, what will aeroplanes be powered with except hydrocarbon fuels? Our entire society runs on fossil fuels, and it's going to take several generations to change to a non-carbon based society. It's easy enough for people to complain about the problem, but changing our society to a carbon neutral one is going to be a very slow process if it happens at all.
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Per Gordon Shumway:
On Tue, 18 Nov 2014 11:19:19 -0500, "(PeteCresswell)"
wrote:

Per CRNG:
Man-made climate warming/change is quack science used by
big-government tax and spend politicians and special interest groups
to justify...


How do you suppose the people behind it managed to sell the idea to
China's Central Committee? Not exactly a hotbed of tree huggers.

How about Xi Jinping?


Xi Jinping's ideology is not unlike our liar-in-chief's, he'll say
what he believes the world wants to hear and then he'll do what ever
the hell he wants. What's your point?


That he is closer to a dictator than an elected official and a very
tough character who I wouldn't think cares very much about what the
world wants to hear.

Likewise, I would not see The Central Committee as being driven by
public opinion. Witness Tiananmen Square and the
hundreds-if-not-thousands of people in prison for saying the wrong
thing.

Bottom Line: if somebody is calling global warming some sort of hoax,
they have to explain why the Chinese government is buying in to it.

That doesn't mean an explaination is not there - just that I have not
yet heard one that makes sense.
--
Pete Cresswell


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On Mon, 17 Nov 2014 20:36:55 -0600, "Albert Gore, Jr." There's a
sucker born every minute. wrote:

The forecast for tonight, here in the Midwest, is for the low to be in
the single digits and the wind chill to be in the negative single
digits.

I hope this doesn't start another discussion about W I N D C H I L L.


Yes, freezing on the east coast as well. But that's why the name
changed to "Climate Change", because certain people point out the cold
extremes and say puff to global warming. Weather does not equal
Climate ( or != depending on the computer language).

I think that climate change is real and is caused by use of fossil
fuels, and I certainly hope that I (and the vast majority of climate
scientists) are wrong. I think not.
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On Tue, 18 Nov 2014 07:26:03 -0600, CRNG
wrote:

Indeed, A peer-reviewed climate change study released in Sept 2013 by
the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change finds the
threat of man-made global warming to be not only greatly exaggerated
but so small as to be "embedded within the background variability of
the natural climate system" and not dangerous.


http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/2...dibility-test/
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On 11/18/2014 1:31 PM, dgk wrote:
I think that climate change is real and is caused by use of fossil
fuels, and I certainly hope that I (and the vast majority of climate
scientists) are wrong. I think not.


I think that climate change has been happening
since long before humans discovered fossil fuels.
I don't think there is a cause and effect bit that
fuels cause change. Rather, changes in weather
dictate more or less use of fuels to keep our homes
comfortable.

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On 11/18/2014 07:24 AM, Stormin Mormon wrote:
Last night I forgot to put the towel in the crack
under the door, and it sure is global warming in
the living room this morning.


Mr. Handyman could fix that crack for you.

http://www.mrhandyman.com/
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On 11/18/2014 4:34 PM, Brock O'Bama wrote:
On 11/18/2014 07:24 AM, Stormin Mormon wrote:
Last night I forgot to put the towel in the crack
under the door, and it sure is global warming in
the living room this morning.


Mr. Handyman could fix that crack for you.

http://www.mrhandyman.com/


This crack is far too big for handyman,
requires a plumber.

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On Monday, November 17, 2014 7:37:59 PM UTC-7, wrote:

The forecast for tonight, here in the Midwest, is for the low to be in
the single digits and the wind chill to be in the negative single
digits.


It's called _global_ warming because the average temperature of the
whole world gets hotter, but just because the average goes up
doesn't mean there can't be record cold in some parts of the world,
and climate scientists know that having more thermal energy does
stuff like make the jet stream in the northern hemisphere move
farther south than normal and bring more cold with it.




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On Tuesday, November 18, 2014 1:42:25 PM UTC-5, dgk wrote:
On Tue, 18 Nov 2014 07:26:03 -0600, CRNG
wrote:

Indeed, A peer-reviewed climate change study released in Sept 2013 by
the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change finds the
threat of man-made global warming to be not only greatly exaggerated
but so small as to be "embedded within the background variability of
the natural climate system" and not dangerous.


http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/2...dibility-test/



Not a very impressive reference. All they do is try to attack based on
who is behind the report challenging global warming. It's supposed to be a
big surprise that those behind it are skeptical about man-made global
warming? The exact same thing could be said about the other side, the true
believers. It would be a lot more credible if they challenged the science,
instead of trying to smear the authors.

I did get a kick out of this though:

"The IPCC is supported by hundreds of scientists, think tanks, and organizations around the world that assess and synthesize the most recent climate change-related science."

IPCC is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ie the proponents of
man-made global warming. They "synthesize" science? Interesting choice of
words. What the hell is that? A freudian slip perhaps?
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On Wednesday, November 19, 2014 12:31:20 AM UTC-5, wrote:
On Monday, November 17, 2014 7:37:59 PM UTC-7, wrote:

The forecast for tonight, here in the Midwest, is for the low to be in
the single digits and the wind chill to be in the negative single
digits.


It's called _global_ warming because the average temperature of the
whole world gets hotter, but just because the average goes up
doesn't mean there can't be record cold in some parts of the world,
and climate scientists know that having more thermal energy does
stuff like make the jet stream in the northern hemisphere move
farther south than normal and bring more cold with it.


I'd like to see the evidence that shows most scientists "know" that
global warming is moving the jet stream to the south. As opposed to
some scientists postulating that it "might" be a factor. There is a
big difference, you know.

Imagine the dust bowl of the 30s occuring today. Immediately a whole
lot of people would jump on the bandwagon that "man-made global warming"
caused it. Today, all that has to happen is for the jet stream to move
and instantly it has to be global warming. Sorry, not buying it.
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On 11/18/2014 05:53 PM, Stormin Mormon wrote:
On 11/18/2014 4:34 PM, Brock O'Bama wrote:
On 11/18/2014 07:24 AM, Stormin Mormon wrote:
Last night I forgot to put the towel in the crack
under the door, and it sure is global warming in
the living room this morning.


Mr. Handyman could fix that crack for you.

http://www.mrhandyman.com/


This crack is far too big for handyman,
requires a plumber.


Oh ok. Here ya go:

http://www.mrrooter.com



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Can you imagine if a conservative Republican president were doing similar?
Suppose a Republican said, "I'm tired of trying to get abortion laws changed,
so, screw the new Congress, screw the last election, I'm issuing executive
orders making most abortions illegal." In that case, not only would the
lamestream media report it, but there would be instant and long discussion
along the lines of "Is that constitutional?


The purpose of the constitution is to protect freedoms of the people.

If you pass a law that TAKES AWAY freedom from the people, that is not comparable to passing a law the GIVES freedom to the people. There is a fundamental difference. New laws are almost always for taking away freedoms, this is a rare example of the opposite.

When I am elected king, I will make an amendment that any proposed new law or regulation that TAKEs AWAY any freedom must have a FREEDOM IMPACT STATEMENT analysis that clearly outlines the cost/benefits of taking away freedom..

We need to fight for our right to party. :-)

Mark


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On 11/20/2014 6:48 PM, Vic Smith wrote:
On Thu, 20 Nov 2014 15:07:12 -0600, Gordon Shumway
Keep showing how stupid you are like Dr. Gruber said. The house and
senate the legislative branch of the government. They are responsible
for creating the laws. The prosecutorial responsibility is under the
purview of the Department of Justice. The president that you are in
love with appoints the head of that and other department. If you are
man enough I would like to hear an apology.


Well that's too bad now isn't it? He was elected POTUS twice.
Don't hold your breath for an apology.
Just keep on whining.


I suspect the election was rigged, and the
Chicago Machine had a bit to do with it.

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Quote:
Originally Posted by trader_4 View Post
On Tuesday, November 18, 2014 1:42:25 PM UTC-5, dgk wrote:
On Tue, 18 Nov 2014 07:26:03 -0600, CRNG
wrote:

Indeed, A peer-reviewed climate change study released in Sept 2013 by
the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change finds the
threat of man-made global warming to be not only greatly exaggerated
but so small as to be "embedded within the background variability of
the natural climate system" and not dangerous.


Heartland Institute and its NIPCC report fail the credibility test | Climate Science Watch



Not a very impressive reference. All they do is try to attack based on
who is behind the report challenging global warming. It's supposed to be a
big surprise that those behind it are skeptical about man-made global
warming? The exact same thing could be said about the other side, the true
believers. It would be a lot more credible if they challenged the science,
instead of trying to smear the authors.

I did get a kick out of this though:

"The IPCC is supported by hundreds of scientists, think tanks, and organizations around the world that assess and synthesize the most recent climate change-related science."

IPCC is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ie the proponents of
man-made global warming. They "synthesize" science? Interesting choice of
words. What the hell is that? A freudian slip perhaps?
Trader:
No, the IPCC doesn't synthesize science. I expect what they're referring to is the use of computer models to predict climate change.

Even when I was a petroleum engineer 30 years ago, we used main frame computers to model reservoir behaviour. Basically, we would generate a mathematical model of the oil reservoir under the ground with known rock parameters at each well location. The objective was to see if we could get the computer to predict actual historical behaviour. That is, we would withdraw the known production from each well and see if the computer model would behave as the actual reservoir did. That is, with the known production from each well, whether the computer model would accurately predict the pressure decrease in the reservoir, and the elevations of the gas/oil interface and the water/oil interface. If we could manipulate the unknown parameters into getting the computer to accurately predict historically measured pressures and gas/oil and oil/water interface elevations, then we could use that same model to predict how the reservoir would behave in future if we were to produce it in different ways, such as by implementing a water flood or perhaps a miscible flood. In that way, we could manage the reservoir to recover the most amount of oil from it.

Climate scientists do the same thing. If they can get their computer models to predict historically accurate global temperature increases, then they can use that same model to predict what will happen with the global climate in the future under different scenarios, such as the world moving from gasoline powered automobiles to electric automobiles over the next 40 years, say. That's not a simple scenario because as the gasoline engines are replaced by electric motors, we need to burn more coal to produce the electricity needed to charge all those electric car batteries every night, and so the effect on the climate is the difference between burning gasoline in cars and coal in electric generating stations.

So, when they say the IPCC "synthesizes climate change - related science" I expect it means that they use their computer models to see if scientific claims about global warming are realistic or not, based on whether their computer models agree with those claims.

Even 30 years ago, the people in computer reservoir simulation business were aware that computer climate models were amongst the most computer intensive applications of computer modeling that there was. 30 years ago, it took days to run a single climate simulation on a mainframe computer, and so it was only universities and governments who owned their own computers that could afford to use them for climate modeling.

Last edited by nestork : November 21st 14 at 07:22 AM
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On Wednesday, November 19, 2014 5:52:36 AM UTC-7, trader_4 wrote:
On Wednesday, November 19, 2014 12:31:20 AM UTC-5, wrote:
On Monday, November 17, 2014 7:37:59 PM UTC-7, wrote:

The forecast for tonight, here in the Midwest, is for the low to be in
the single digits and the wind chill to be in the negative single
digits.


It's called _global_ warming because the average temperature of the
whole world gets hotter, but just because the average goes up
doesn't mean there can't be record cold in some parts of the world,
and climate scientists know that having more thermal energy does
stuff like make the jet stream in the northern hemisphere move
farther south than normal and bring more cold with it.


I'd like to see the evidence that shows most scientists "know" that
global warming is moving the jet stream to the south. As opposed to
some scientists postulating that it "might" be a factor. There is a
big difference, you know.

Imagine the dust bowl of the 30s occuring today. Immediately a whole
lot of people would jump on the bandwagon that "man-made global warming"
caused it. Today, all that has to happen is for the jet stream to move
and instantly it has to be global warming. Sorry, not buying it.


No, you can't say the weather where you live being cold
proves there's no global warming, just as I couldn't cite
the unusually warm weather we had a few weeks ago as proof
of global warming.

Apparently fairly mainstream climate science says global
warming is affecting the jet stream.

I thought the Dust Bowl was caused by overfarming without
the use of good soil conservation practices.


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Quote:
Originally Posted by View Post
I'd like to see the evidence that shows most scientists "know" that
global warming is moving the jet stream to the south. As opposed to
some scientists postulating that it "might" be a factor. There is a
big difference, you know.
And that is exactly the problem. The jet stream seems to be moving further south over North America over the past few years. But, no one knows IF global warming is causing that or if it's something else, including a natural rythm in the jet stream. We don't understand any of this stuff to make a sound scientific argument that global warming would even affect the jet stream, let alone how.

But, the problem is, that kind of understanding is decades away, and we may not have decades before we change the Earth's climate enough to create changes that we can't control and possibly make vast parts of the Earth uninhabitable.

The huge glaciers that cover much of Greenland are melting. As they do, cities like New York will flood as the ocean levels rise. Hurricanes are predicted to be stronger and more frequent, and so all of the work that was done in New Orleans after Katrina my be for naught if the frequency and intensity of hurricanes hitting the Gulf and East coasts increases.
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On Thursday, November 20, 2014 11:17:14 PM UTC-5, nestork wrote:
trader_4;3310356 Wrote:
On Tuesday, November 18, 2014 1:42:25 PM UTC-5, dgk wrote:-
On Tue, 18 Nov 2014 07:26:03 -0600, CRNG
wrote:
-
Indeed, A peer-reviewed climate change study released in Sept 2013 by
the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change finds the
threat of man-made global warming to be not only greatly exaggerated
but so small as to be "embedded within the background variability of
the natural climate system" and not dangerous.-

'Heartland Institute and its NIPCC report fail the credibility test |
Climate Science Watch' (
http://tinyurl.com/jwfsqso)-


Not a very impressive reference. All they do is try to attack based on
who is behind the report challenging global warming. It's supposed to
be a
big surprise that those behind it are skeptical about man-made global
warming? The exact same thing could be said about the other side, the
true
believers. It would be a lot more credible if they challenged the
science,
instead of trying to smear the authors.

I did get a kick out of this though:

"The IPCC is supported by hundreds of scientists, think tanks, and
organizations around the world that assess and synthesize the most
recent climate change-related science."

IPCC is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ie the proponents
of
man-made global warming. They "synthesize" science? Interesting choice
of
words. What the hell is that? A freudian slip perhaps?


Trader:
No, the IPCC doesn't make synthetic climate. I expect what they're
referring to is the use of computer models to assess climate change.


Whatever it is, I've never heard of anyone saying they synthesize science,
have you?



Even when I was a petroleum engineer 30 years ago, we used main frame
computers to model reservoir behaviour. Basically, we would generate a
mathematical model of the reservoir under the ground with known rock
parameters at each well location and see if we could get the computer to
predict historical behaviour. That is, we would withdraw the known
production from each well and see if the computer would accurately
predict the pressure in the reservoir, the elevation of the gas/oil
interface and the water/oil interface. If we could manipulate the
unknown parameters into getting the computer to accurately predict
historical measured pressures and gas/oil and oil/water interface
elevations, then we could use that same model to predict how the
reservoir would behave if we were to produce it in different ways, such
as by implementing a water flood or perhaps a miscible flood. In that
way, we maximize the amount of oil produced from large reservoirs.

Climate scientists do the same thing. If they can get their computer
models to predict historically accurate global temperature increases,
then they can use that model to predict what will happen with the global
climate in the future under different scenarios, such as the world
moving from gasoline powered automobiles to electric automobiles over
the next 40 years, or by changing from coal burning electric generating
stations to nuclear reactors, for example.

So, when they say the IPCC "synthesizes climate change - related
science" it means that they use their computer models to see if
scientific claims about global warming are realistic or not, based on
whether their computer models agree with those claims.


They did the same thing back in the 70's. They had models, computers,
and they told us that we were entering a new ice age. Of course they
will tell you that the models and computers are much better now. They
said that in the 70's too. Any of those models are only as good as the
guesses that go into making them. And as others here have pointed out,
if you're a manmade global warming skeptic and you want $20mil in govt
funds to work on a model, what do you think your chances of getting funded
are?



Even 30 years ago, the people in computer reservoir simulation business
were aware that computer climate models were amongst the most computer
intensive applications of computer modelling that there was. 30 years
ago, it took days and even weeks of time on a mainframe computer to run
a single computer simulation, and so it was only universities and
governments who owned their own computers that could afford to use them
for climate modeling. Tying up a piece of equipment like a computer
that cost 20 million dollars for a week would have been prohibitively
expensive for independant or privately funded climate researchers.


AFAIK, it's still the same, nothing has changed. And if you're a skeptic,
how much funding do you think you get? Forget about funding, you'd be
lucky to still have your job.
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Even when I was a petroleum engineer 30 years ago, we used main frame
computers to model reservoir behaviour. Basically, we would generate a
mathematical model of the reservoir under the ground with known rock
parameters at each well location and see if we could get the computer to
predict historical behaviour. That is, we would withdraw the known
production from each well and see if the computer would accurately
predict the pressure in the reservoir, the elevation of the gas/oil
interface and the water/oil interface. If we could manipulate the
unknown parameters into getting the computer to accurately predict
historical measured pressures and gas/oil and oil/water interface
elevations, then we could use that same model to predict how the
reservoir would behave if we were to produce it in different ways, such
as by implementing a water flood or perhaps a miscible flood. In that
way, we maximize the amount of oil produced from large reservoirs.

Climate scientists do the same thing. If they can get their computer
models to predict historically accurate global temperature increases,
then they can use that model to predict what will happen with the global
climate in the future under different scenarios, such as the world
moving from gasoline powered automobiles to electric automobiles over
the next 40 years, or by changing from coal burning electric generating
stations to nuclear reactors, for example.


you hit the nail on the head regarding computer simulations.

when you create a simulation of a geological formation, you have a lot of infomration about the formation. you also have the benefit of testing the simulation on other formations and you can refine the simulation over time and experience.

electronics engineers use simulations to test circuits. the behavior of the components is mostly well known. as soon as you get into an area where the behavior of a component is not known exactly, the simulation fails.

the Earths climate system is chaotic (this is not just a verbal description, it has a technical mathematical meaning) and the behavior of the componets are not well known. Also they do not have the benefit of testing the simlation model. And yet they want to to use the results of these models as the basis for important economc and social policy decisions.

I would like to create a challange for the climtae modellers. Create a small system that has some complex chaotic behaivor that can be accuratly measured. Lets see if the models can predict the future behior of this small system. Oh say, predict what number a rouleete wheel ball will land on. Think you can do that? Creating a model of the Earth's climate is a similar problem.

Mark

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Quote:
Originally Posted by View Post
I would like to create a challange for the climtae modellers. Create a small system that has some complex chaotic behaivor that can be accuratly measured. Lets see if the models can predict the future behior of this small system. Oh say, predict what number a rouleete wheel ball will land on. Think you can do that? Creating a model of the Earth's climate is a similar problem.
Mark
Mark:

No, the surface of a roulette wheel has numerous protrusions on it's surface. The roulette ball hitting any of these would cause it to bounce, possibly into a different area of the wheel. Consequently, minute changes in the speed or timing of the roulette ball's release make a big difference in where the roulette ball winds up.

http://extremecasinoparties.com/roulette-wheel.jpg

I don't think it's reasonable to presume that the Earth's climate is THAT chaotic. If it were, then we couldn't tell with any degree of certainty when we would have summer or winter and how long those seasons would last. We could conceivably have -40 degree F temperatures for one week and then suddenly have +40 degree F temperatures the next. That's what can happen on a roulette wheel, but things aren't quite that chaotic in our weather.


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On Friday, November 21, 2014 1:17:15 PM UTC-6, nestork wrote:

http://thecolbertreport.cc.com/video...k_112114_cn_37
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In article , nestork.eb54528
@diybanter.com says...

We could conceivably have -40 degree F temperatures for one
week and then suddenly have +40 degree F temperatures the next. That's
what can happen on a roulette wheel, but things aren't quite that
chaotic in our weather.


Ignoring the fact that we've seen exactly that in Chicago in real life,
you make an excellent point. (actually, -26 to +40, but I think that's
close enough to what you're describing)

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On Friday, November 21, 2014 12:23:16 AM UTC-5, wrote:
On Wednesday, November 19, 2014 5:52:36 AM UTC-7, trader_4 wrote:
On Wednesday, November 19, 2014 12:31:20 AM UTC-5, wrote:
On Monday, November 17, 2014 7:37:59 PM UTC-7, wrote:

The forecast for tonight, here in the Midwest, is for the low to be in
the single digits and the wind chill to be in the negative single
digits.

It's called _global_ warming because the average temperature of the
whole world gets hotter, but just because the average goes up
doesn't mean there can't be record cold in some parts of the world,
and climate scientists know that having more thermal energy does
stuff like make the jet stream in the northern hemisphere move
farther south than normal and bring more cold with it.


I'd like to see the evidence that shows most scientists "know" that
global warming is moving the jet stream to the south. As opposed to
some scientists postulating that it "might" be a factor. There is a
big difference, you know.

Imagine the dust bowl of the 30s occuring today. Immediately a whole
lot of people would jump on the bandwagon that "man-made global warming"
caused it. Today, all that has to happen is for the jet stream to move
and instantly it has to be global warming. Sorry, not buying it.


No, you can't say the weather where you live being cold
proves there's no global warming, just as I couldn't cite
the unusually warm weather we had a few weeks ago as proof
of global warming.

Apparently fairly mainstream climate science says global
warming is affecting the jet stream.

I thought the Dust Bowl was caused by overfarming without
the use of good soil conservation practices.


Did overfarming cause the drought? Without a drought, there would have
been no dustbowl. Good grief. I'm still
waiting for that "fairly mainstream climate science" reference
that says global warming is making the jet stream move farther
south than normal.

The most interesting part of this whole global warming thing is
watching the proponents grasp at straws now. The problem is that for
about the last 15 years, there has been almost no global warming,
the temp has been going basically sideways. So they are reduced to
nutty statements like that this Oct was the hottest on record. Yeah,
it was the hottest by .02 degrees, beating out 2003. That would seem
to me to be well within the margin of measurement error. And I also
would not be at all suprised to find fudging with the data. Did they
use the exact same data, from the exact same locations that they did
10, 20, 50 years ago? Unlikely. Almost certainly they've added readings
from new locations and then done some "adjustment" to factor those in.
And then they pull out a .02 degree difference. And the headline is
"Warmest Oct on Record", with most articles not even mentioning that
it's only .02 more than 11 years ago.

Me, I'm waiting to see which way the temp goes when it finally
breaks out of the 15 years sideways pattern.
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On Monday, November 17, 2014 8:37:59 PM UTC-6, wrote:
[...]



You can't accept the known effect of high CO2 in a planetary atmosphere, and the MEASURED CO2 levels, but you believe that Noah floated around in a boat with all the animals.

Plus, you conveniently ignore the VERY WELL KNOWN reason for the current cold spell -- the huge typhoon Nuri which hit the Aleutians on November 7.
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On Saturday, November 22, 2014 4:18:36 PM UTC-5, Davej wrote:
On Monday, November 17, 2014 8:37:59 PM UTC-6, wrote:
[...]



You can't accept the known effect of high CO2 in a planetary atmosphere, and the MEASURED CO2 levels, but you believe that Noah floated around in a boat with all the animals.

Plus, you conveniently ignore the VERY WELL KNOWN reason for the current cold spell -- the huge typhoon Nuri which hit the Aleutians on November 7.


The typhoon in the Pacific from Nov 7 is what's causing the cold weather in NYC
over two weeks later? Says who, exactly? Will it be over by Spring? This
is the first time i've ever heard of a hurricane or typhoon being blamed for
the current weather 2 weeks after it's gone.


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On 11/22/2014 5:34 PM, trader_4 wrote:
On Saturday, November 22, 2014 4:18:36 PM UTC-5, Davej wrote:
On Monday, November 17, 2014 8:37:59 PM UTC-6, wrote:
[...]



You can't accept the known effect of high CO2 in a planetary atmosphere, and the MEASURED CO2 levels, but you believe that Noah floated around in a boat with all the animals.

Plus, you conveniently ignore the VERY WELL KNOWN reason for the current cold spell -- the huge typhoon Nuri which hit the Aleutians on November 7.


The typhoon in the Pacific from Nov 7 is what's causing the cold weather in NYC
over two weeks later? Says who, exactly? Will it be over by Spring? This
is the first time i've ever heard of a hurricane or typhoon being blamed for
the current weather 2 weeks after it's gone.


The typhoon was the reason the cold snap hit central tx earlier this
week. I think the jet stream moved it (the cold snap) east causing the
moisture and cold weather. It is a bit ironic. We (central tx) had one
of the coldest Nov on record due to a typhoon.

We're getting lots of rain now. We need it.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Hartigan[_2_] View Post
Ignoring the fact that we've seen exactly that in Chicago in real life,
you make an excellent point. (actually, -26 to +40, but I think that's
close enough to what you're describing)
Mike:

If weather were anywhere nearly as chaotic as a roulette wheel, it would be completely unpredictable. And, that's the difference between the weather and a roulette wheel. Every day I watch the weather forecast on TV that tells me what's gonna happen over the next few days, and for the most part, that forecast is generally what happens.

If only one could predict a roulette wheel as accurately.

Here's a .gif file that shows how Typhoon Nuri affected the weather over North America over the last week or so:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...rature_Map.gif

Last edited by nestork : November 23rd 14 at 05:04 AM
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On Saturday, November 22, 2014 6:56:38 PM UTC-8, gonjah wrote:
On 11/22/2014 5:34 PM, trader_4 wrote:
On Saturday, November 22, 2014 4:18:36 PM UTC-5, Davej wrote:
On Monday, November 17, 2014 8:37:59 PM UTC-6, wrote:
[...]


You can't accept the known effect of high CO2 in a planetary atmosphere, and the MEASURED CO2 levels, but you believe that Noah floated around in a boat with all the animals.

Plus, you conveniently ignore the VERY WELL KNOWN reason for the current cold spell -- the huge typhoon Nuri which hit the Aleutians on November 7.


The typhoon in the Pacific from Nov 7 is what's causing the cold weather in NYC
over two weeks later? Says who, exactly? Will it be over by Spring? This
is the first time i've ever heard of a hurricane or typhoon being blamed for
the current weather 2 weeks after it's gone.


The typhoon was the reason the cold snap hit central tx earlier this
week. I think the jet stream moved it (the cold snap) east causing the
moisture and cold weather. It is a bit ironic. We (central tx) had one
of the coldest Nov on record due to a typhoon.

We're getting lots of rain now. We need it.


And the doubters still need to explain the latest news.

'2014 to be the hottest year on record ever' Not exact quote but that was the headling in my paper a day or two ago. Also 3 of the last 5 years also set "hottest ever" records. I saw that about 2 months ago so "3 of 5" may not be fully accurate but it is in the ball park.

One can ague (stupidly) that man is not causing or even contributing to GW but it takes a real certifiable moron to claim it is not happening

Harry K

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On Sunday, November 23, 2014 11:34:23 AM UTC-5, Harry K wrote:
On Saturday, November 22, 2014 6:56:38 PM UTC-8, gonjah wrote:
On 11/22/2014 5:34 PM, trader_4 wrote:
On Saturday, November 22, 2014 4:18:36 PM UTC-5, Davej wrote:
On Monday, November 17, 2014 8:37:59 PM UTC-6, wrote:
[...]


You can't accept the known effect of high CO2 in a planetary atmosphere, and the MEASURED CO2 levels, but you believe that Noah floated around in a boat with all the animals.

Plus, you conveniently ignore the VERY WELL KNOWN reason for the current cold spell -- the huge typhoon Nuri which hit the Aleutians on November 7.

The typhoon in the Pacific from Nov 7 is what's causing the cold weather in NYC
over two weeks later? Says who, exactly? Will it be over by Spring? This
is the first time i've ever heard of a hurricane or typhoon being blamed for
the current weather 2 weeks after it's gone.


The typhoon was the reason the cold snap hit central tx earlier this
week. I think the jet stream moved it (the cold snap) east causing the
moisture and cold weather. It is a bit ironic. We (central tx) had one
of the coldest Nov on record due to a typhoon.

We're getting lots of rain now. We need it.


And the doubters still need to explain the latest news.

'2014 to be the hottest year on record ever' Not exact quote but that was the headling in my paper a day or two ago. Also 3 of the last 5 years also set "hottest ever" records. I saw that about 2 months ago so "3 of 5" may not be fully accurate but it is in the ball park.

One can ague (stupidly) that man is not causing or even contributing to GW but it takes a real certifiable moron to claim it is not happening

Harry K


You have to stop reading the headlines and read the details. The headlines
crowed that Oct was the warmest Oct on record. Yeah, by a whopping .02
degrees. Maybe you believe they have that degree of accuracy, but even if
you do, is the headline justified? And I'd bet that if you dig into the data,
you'd find that more monitoring sites are now included than in the past and
that they've massaged the data in some "unbiased" way to bring it all
together.

The truth is the average global temp
has been basically going sideways for the last 17 years. Look for the charts
and you'll see it. The global warming
crowd has taken to desperately trying to come up with all kinds of excuses
for why it's going sideways, instead of up. Mind you 10, 15 years
ago, they didn't say global warming would talke a pause because of x, y, z.
But now, sure enough with 20-20 hindsight, they are coming up with one
"possible" excuse after another.
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On 11/23/2014 11:34 AM, Harry K wrote:

One can ague (stupidly) that man is not causing

or even contributing to GW but it takes a real
certifiable moron to claim it is not happening

Harry K


Global warming is not happening.

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Learn about Jesus
www.lds.org
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