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nightjar nightjar is offline
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Default World Oil Production to Peak in 2013


"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...
wrote:
nightjar wrote:
"peakoil" wrote in message
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Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ?
Yes, although 2040 has also been suggested. However, peak oil theory is
based upon the invalid assumption that recoverable oil reserves are
fixed.
It has had one success, although it was a few years wrong on exactly
when US
oil production would peak, and multiple failures in its predictions.

Colin Bignell



Oil exploration is expensive. Its only finanically worthwhile
exploring enough to give a lmiited time buffer ahead. The failure to
understand this is the cause for this erroneous 'peak oil' hypothesis.


So there is unlimited oil in the ground that will always take less energy
to extract than is actually in the oil?


There is a lot more oil in the ground that we can extract than the peak oil
adherents would like us to believe. Quoted oil reserves are based upon the
P90 figure - a level that it is 90% certain will be exceeded in practice.
That is a wise figure to use for an individual oil field. Globally, as might
be expected, actual extraction achieved is close to the P50 figure, which
would give us about three times the recoverable oil reserves normally
quoted. Even that is only a small percentage of the oil actually in the
ground and future technology may increase the proportion of actual oil that
can be classed as recoverable oil.

The energy of extraction is something of a red herring, as oil is a useful
portable source of energy, so using non-portable sources of energy, such as
nuclear or hydro-electric generation, to provide power to extract it will
probably be worth while when it becomes expensive enough to need it.

Colin Bignell